HailMan06 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr has it fall apart but who knows Anything’s possible I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr has it fall apart but who knows PWATS are very high….would be surprised if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: PWATS are very high….would be surprised if that happens If the trigger to make convection dies out so does the convection. The wave/low needs to happen to keep the hope alive east of the city. I hope for the NW crew it dies down but we could really use what’s over the Delmarva now to survive to this area. A few heavy showers won’t cut it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the trigger to make convection dies out so does the convection. The wave/low needs to happen to keep the hope alive east of the city. I hope for the NW crew it dies down but we could really use what’s over the Delmarva now to survive to this area. A few heavy showers won’t cut it. Crazy how persistent this wet pattern has been…you can just copy and paste your post from weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: PWATS are very high….would be surprised if that happens Hopefully you're right about that. The heavy rain really falls apart on the RGEM too, but definitely could see how these models are wrong and we get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hopefully you're right about that. The heavy rain really falls apart on the RGEM too, but definitely could see how these models are wrong and we get hit hard. Is it gunna rain?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Crazy how persistent this wet pattern has been…you can just copy and paste your post from weeks ago Feel bad for the Long Island crew. We've had a rapid turnaround over most of NJ. The latest Drought Monitor showed intensifying dryness across L.I. Don't think this "event" is going to reverse that for them. For my area it is now getting to be too much rain. I'd rather have too much than not enough though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4.97”, rate down to .19 now thankfully but much damage has already been done in Orange County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 That craziness all throughout eastern PA has me a little nervous for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy how persistent this wet pattern has been…you can just copy and paste your post from weeks ago Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. There’s a shot here east of the city this time. But the storms probably wouldn’t be training over this area so we’d probably get 1-2” but it’s hugely welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. That’s going to be our main show. Let’s see if the super warm water temps help hold that together better then what would have happened a couple weeks ago, when similar looking cells went poof. Currently drizzling at Jones beach, still a good amount of people here despite the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Short downpour at the dock earlier. Nobody was out on the water today (north shore). looks like another basic nonevent for the island (nassau east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 If that stuff in DE moves through NJ that’s going to be catastrophic flooding. sometimes living on the island has its advantages. I’m good on flooding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, psv88 said: If that stuff in DE moves through NJ that’s going to be catastrophic flooding. sometimes living on the island has its advantages. I’m good on flooding! We want rains to bust the drought for good. But not this much at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: If that stuff in DE moves through NJ that’s going to be catastrophic flooding. sometimes living on the island has its advantages. I’m good on flooding! Should weaken. Question is how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Should weaken. Question is how much The stuff behind the line starting to break up. Will need stuff to form in front of it to get more then 1 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 You can easily see everything starting to fall apart, which Upton has in their last disco. Hope falls onto another wave to materialize overnight, which I’m not very confident about. Could be another fail for most of the island again. Pray that I’m wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The stuff behind the line starting to break up. Will need stuff to form in front of it to get more then 1 inch Nearing 1" by me now with that stuff in front of the main line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1.27 so far today here in hunterdon county. About to pour again shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 .13” on the day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, dmillz25 said: .13” on the day lol Got me by .13. Local stations have basically nothing east of nyc overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, Rmine1 said: Got me by .13. Local stations have basically nothing east of nyc overnight Hopefully that secondary wave produces for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Hopefully that secondary wave produces for you Fingers crossed, but recent history suggests otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Got me by .13. Local stations have basically nothing east of nyc overnight So far, the Lower Hudson Valley has received the most rainfall thus far with 1 to 3 inches in different locations with some localized higher amounts. There has already been reports of flooding within this location. The farther southwest section of the line is set to make its way into Northeast NJ and into NYC this evening. For Lower Hudson Valley, the showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. For Long Island and Southern Connecticut, the line is forecast to break apart partially but with another area of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the south late this evening. Further convective development is expected over parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, parts of NYC, Southern Connecticut, and Long Island overnight. The forcing is positive vorticity advection from two shortwaves, one moving across this evening and a stronger one approaching overnight. This will be during a time when the precipitable waters across the region remain near 2 inches. Forecast lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So far, the Lower Hudson Valley has received the most rainfall thus far with 1 to 3 inches in different locations with some localized higher amounts. There has already been reports of flooding within this location. The farther southwest section of the line is set to make its way into Northeast NJ and into NYC this evening. For Lower Hudson Valley, the showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. For Long Island and Southern Connecticut, the line is forecast to break apart partially but with another area of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the south late this evening. Further convective development is expected over parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, parts of NYC, Southern Connecticut, and Long Island overnight. The forcing is positive vorticity advection from two shortwaves, one moving across this evening and a stronger one approaching overnight. This will be during a time when the precipitable waters across the region remain near 2 inches. Forecast lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Yep. Praying. If we fail with these PWATs I’m done. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 1-3+ in this zone over the next few hours imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 1-3+ in this zone over the next few hours imo Living on the edge with a battery down to 9%… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Living on the edge with a battery down to 9%… 8 now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms. gigo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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