forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 this looks significant enough for its own thread By evening instances of 3-6" locally will become increasingly plausible with 00z HREF probability fields greater than 60% from DC to N VT (with spots near 90-100% for 3" and 30-60% of 5" across NE PA/N NJ to S VT. 00z Hi-Res CAMs have trended slightly eastward to align more favorably to the greatest 14-day precipitation over 300% of climatological normal axis extending from near Baltimore to Philly to N NJ and W MA, suggesting increased runoff potential for these. As the surface wave advances toward the New York Bight by early morning, increased low level flow, will advect unstable across across S NY/New England and with continued isentropic ascent through warm conveyor belt along/north of the surface low, additional efficient thunderstorms a likely to linger overnight, in proximity to SE NY/SW New England as well as into south facing terrain making a more likely scenario for flash flooding. As such, the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall was shifted eastward slightly to account for the guidance trends. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 There's probably going to be a west lean to the heavy rains but we should see some good rains further east too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 July 9th? That's today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 So what time should I go out to soap the cars up before they get a nice freshwater rinse? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Parts of PA are getting hammered right now. East of Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 I have a wedding in Ulster County today. I'm kinda nervous about river and creek flooding, mostly bc i don't know the area at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Models seem to be honing in on areas just north and west of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Models seem to be honing in on areas just north and west of 95 Not encouraging for LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Not encouraging for LI. The hrrr doesn't always have a clue but the nam also has that same donut hole around nassau/western suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The hrrr doesn't always have a clue but the nam also has that same donut hole around nassau/western suffolk the 3k hits the metro with a secondary low later tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The hrrr doesn't always have a clue but the nam also has that same donut hole around nassau/western suffolk I’m in that hole! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the 3k hits the metro with a secondary low later tonight I agree on that being the time for island. Currently partly sunny at Jones beach. I just hope we don’t have one of the instances like we had with the last event where the western half of the island gets jumped. As in, the precip shield re-fires over the twin forks and SE New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. You'd be surprised how quickly things can flood even with dryness during these high PWAT situations in the summer. There's gonna be some 2-4" per hour amounts with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed. Yeah it has me over 2", east of the parkway it drops to half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah it has me over 2", east of the parkway it drops to half an inch I think we'll do well, but we're close enough to the sharp cutoff zone that obviously there's some risk. Hopefully we'll get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I think we'll do well, but we're close enough to the sharp cutoff zone that obviously there's some risk. Hopefully we'll get hammered. I've had enough this week so if it does miss me I won't be too upset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I've had enough this week so if it does miss me I won't be too upset I'm in the same boat, pun intended, have had enough over the past two weeks or so, rooting for a miss up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I've had enough this week so if it does miss me I won't be too upset I'd like to see more, but yeah the storm on July 4th was tremendous. Can't complain too much if we miss out on the big stuff today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree on that being the time for island. Currently partly sunny at Jones beach. I just hope we don’t have one of the instances like we had with the last event where the western half of the island gets jumped. As in, the precip shield re-fires over the twin forks and SE New England Some consensus that this is exactly what happens unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 pa is getting hammered some spots have upwards of 4” of rain already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I've had enough this week so if it does miss me I won't be too upset you're not getting missed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 every run of the hrrr edges a little more southeast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you're not getting missed Yeah its not looking like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Does this continue into tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 about to get slammed in the next 15-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Does this continue into tomorrow? into tomorrow morning/scattered stuff tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Man radar is starting to fill in quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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