July Discobs 2023

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I've seen .03".  Next.

I always get hit in the Winter (north of Baltimore). 

[Terpeast]

Finally had a cell jackpot over me. Dropped a nice payload of pouring rain for 20 minutes.

All I had to do was water my garden a couple hours beforehand. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Terpeast said:

All I had to do was water my garden a couple hours beforehand. 

How crazy! When I was a kid... the correlation only intensified. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I always get hit in the Winter (north of Baltimore). 

You're in a great spot. 

[yoda]

I am guessing some what look like mamamtus clouds by Nats Park?  I'm at the game tonight and this is what I see over the LF foul pole

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO....there are always the next fantasy storms to track.  

[yoda]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO....there is always the next fantasy storms to track.  

Impossible since that jackpots @BlizzardNole

[BlizzardNole]

30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO....there are always the next fantasy storms to track.  

Ahahahahaha!  NOPE

Dumb Euro gonna dumb Euro.  We got zip today and we'll get zip Sunday.  I've had one "big" rain event with 0.6 which is like other places getting 5 inches.  I've had less than 2" total since June 1 and would be surprised to see more than 3" for the entirety of met summer.  So pardon me when I LOL at these pathetic QPF forecasts

[WEATHER53]

I got into one of those 1.2” in 20 minutes 4/5 days ago and it’s memorable 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Raining again here. The 9th or 10th time in the last 2 weeks. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 12K NAM says rainy Sunday and rainy Monday night.

[Stormfly]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Raining again here. The 9th or 10th time in the last 2 weeks. 

Yes we got crushed by that tiny cluster last night around midnight!  Close to 3" for the day yesterday.

Hopefully tomorrow busts.  Garden plants need to breathe!

But the way it works we'll have 90 mph gusts and cantaloupe sized hail tomorrow.

[Rhino16]

Already storms firing up nearby as they have in previous days. It hasn’t rained any measurable amount since Monday however.

edit: storm to north has 2-4 inch per hour in the FFW

[vastateofmind]

Storm just blew up (literally) within past 20 min, between Dale City and Springfield. Heaviest rain we've had all week as nearly all other storms missed us. Can't hardly see across the street right now...and this doesn't seem like it's moving much at all on radar, maybe meandering east a bit.  (EDIT:  The storm "rained itself out" within another 20 min of posting this then disappeared from radar altogether!)

I'm sure this heavy rain will linger and ruin our chances of bigger storms later...because I just staged the mower, the weed whacker and yard blower on the patio to knock out all of the lawns over the next hour. FML. #NoLawnMowingForMeToday

[yoda]

@CAPE should be getting some good rain 

[CAPE]

Just now, yoda said:

@CAPE should be getting some good rain 

Had a quick downpour, but mostly its all around, as has been the case the last 6 days. See what happens in the next few mins..

[CAPE]

Nice tropical deluge now.

[Jrlg1181]

.02 since last Saturday in my backyard, but at work over here in Charlottesville today and it's another day and another deluge over here... Charlottesville has to be the wettest city in Virginia in the summer months... I'm beginning to think that's why Jefferson who was a weather fanatic settled where he did, he probably realized this place was usually wetter than the surrounding areas ....

[CAPE]

0.95" in less than 15 mins. Not bad. Some nice T&L too.

[ThePhotoGuy]

86.3/72.6 

Felt awful out doing yardwork.

No rain yesterday, saw the storm on Rt-100 yesterday near Severn and thought it would have given some rain at home but looked to have broke up/went north. 

[CAPE]

It's been interesting watching the radar this week, with the outflow boundaries from one decaying cell initiating another one, and the process continues.

The stuff that came through really consolidated to my east. Booming thunder still although the rain has stopped here. 1.05" for the total.

[SnowtoRain]

0.53", 4.08" for the month

[CAPE]

Right at 2" for the month. Needed this one today. Plants got a good drink.

[dailylurker]

Dry as a bone here. This area really hasn't had much relief. I was just watering wilting plants. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Dry as a bone here. This area really hasn't had much relief. I was just watering wilting plants. 

Soil was very dry here until an hour ago. Doesn't take long this time of year, esp in the woods. Tomorrow should be a more widespread event for the region.

[BlizzardNole]

Hey LWX, I fixed tomorrows FFW for you:

[yoda]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
323 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ053>055-501-502-
505-506-526-527-090330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0002.230709T1600Z-230710T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-
Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Reisterstown, Silver Spring, Haymarket,
Greenbelt, Washington, Lexington Park, Falls Church, Ellicott City,
Frederick, Franconia, California, Leesburg, Montclair,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Warrenton, North Beach, Dale City, Ballenger
Creek, Lisbon, Woodbridge, Germantown, Centreville, Chesapeake
Beach, Manassas, Severna Park, Ashburn, Jarrettsville, Purcellville,
Columbia, Camp Springs, Reston, Bethesda, Eldersburg, Dunkirk,
Herndon, Cockeysville, Arlington, McLean, Elkton, College Park, St.
Charles, Gaithersburg, Rockville, Falmouth, South Gate, Odenton,
Bowie, Chantilly, Glen Burnie, Prince Frederick, Aberdeen,
Annandale, Clinton, Damascus, Alexandria, Turnbull, Laurel,
Westminster, Lake Ridge, Severn, Huntingtown, Annapolis, Arnold,
Waldorf, Baltimore, Sterling, and Lusby
323 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including
  the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland,
  Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast
  Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest
  Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore
  and St. Marys. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls
  Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern
  Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Southern Fauquier, Stafford
  and Western Loudoun.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy
    rainfall are expected across the watch area Sunday afternoon
    into Sunday evening. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
    is expected across the watch area, with isolated totals in
    excess of 4 inches possible. This heavy rainfall may lead to
    rapid rises of water on creeks, streams, urban and poor
    drainage areas, and in other flood-prone locations.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[yoda]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 09 2023 - 12Z Mon Jul 10 2023 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...20Z Update...

...Mid-Atlantic through New England...

In coordination with all the forecast offices from DC/Baltimore 
north through New England, a Moderate Risk area was introduced 
with this afternoon's update for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into 
western New England. All guidance continues to hone in on a 
corridor of heavy rainfall caused by numerous training showers and 
thunderstorms developing across the Moderate Risk area Sunday 
afternoon for southern and western areas, then progressing through 
New England Sunday Night. Expect a widespread 2-4 inch event 
especially from eastern PA north through VT. However local amounts 
are likely to exceed 6 inches of rain, with the most likely areas 
for the higher rainfall totals through the Catskills/Poconos of 
NY/PA and also through the Green Mountains of VT. Much of this 
area has been very hard hit in recent days with heavy rainfall, 
with a large area over 300% of climatological normal rains per 
2-week AHPS data. Adding a stalling front into the mix which will 
allow for training of abnormally high moisture air on the order of 
PWATs to 1.75 inches makes for a likely scenario for flash 
flooding, especially when adding terrain influences into the mix.

With the full day's worth of HREF data first available at 12Z, 
it's notable that portions of east central VT have a 30% chance of 
exceeding 100-year annual return intervals for the amount of rain 
expected, with the Catskills/Poconos and Green Mountains all over 
70% chance of exceeding 3 and 6 hour FFGs Sunday afternoon and 
evening. The steady signal of widespread rain and good model 
agreement on both timing and areal amounts added enough confidence 
to the forecast to upgrade to the Moderate Risk for this update.

[thunderbolt]

Just now, yoda said:

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 09 2023 - 12Z Mon Jul 10 2023 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...20Z Update...

...Mid-Atlantic through New England...

In coordination with all the forecast offices from DC/Baltimore 
north through New England, a Moderate Risk area was introduced 
with this afternoon's update for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into 
western New England. All guidance continues to hone in on a 
corridor of heavy rainfall caused by numerous training showers and 
thunderstorms developing across the Moderate Risk area Sunday 
afternoon for southern and western areas, then progressing through 
New England Sunday Night. Expect a widespread 2-4 inch event 
especially from eastern PA north through VT. However local amounts 
are likely to exceed 6 inches of rain, with the most likely areas 
for the higher rainfall totals through the Catskills/Poconos of 
NY/PA and also through the Green Mountains of VT. Much of this 
area has been very hard hit in recent days with heavy rainfall, 
with a large area over 300% of climatological normal rains per 
2-week AHPS data. Adding a stalling front into the mix which will 
allow for training of abnormally high moisture air on the order of 
PWATs to 1.75 inches makes for a likely scenario for flash 
flooding, especially when adding terrain influences into the mix.

With the full day's worth of HREF data first available at 12Z, 
it's notable that portions of east central VT have a 30% chance of 
exceeding 100-year annual return intervals for the amount of rain 
expected, with the Catskills/Poconos and Green Mountains all over 
70% chance of exceeding 3 and 6 hour FFGs Sunday afternoon and 
evening. The steady signal of widespread rain and good model 
agreement on both timing and areal amounts added enough confidence 
to the forecast to upgrade to the Moderate Risk for this update.

[CAPE]