Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

July Discobs 2023


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

More effective sunshine and it's Day 2. Heat builds each day.

Very true - tho yesterday was the first time this summer than DPs stayed above 70 for any length of time here. Early next week looks like a slice of incoming heaven so after we get through this proverbial rat in a snake on the charts, not a thing wrong with that forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z RAOB from IAD indicated a ConvT of 93 degrees and we're seeing a CU field start to pop now on visible satellite as temps get into the mid 90s. I did a quick look at the 100 degree days in DCA, IAD, and BWI. Looks like you need the ConvT to be at least 95 - 97 degrees for a legit shot at 100 degrees. We probably fall short at DCA today, but Baltimore Inner Harbor and BWI seem like they might make it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Afternoon short term update from LWX:

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH 
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF 
NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER, 
BUT THERE ARE FINALLY SIGNS ON THE CLOUD PHASE DISTINCTION RGB 
AND LIGHTNINGCAST PROBS THAT CONVECTION WILL GET GOING VERY SOON
OVER THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM MARTINSBURG TO HARRISONBURG VA. 
EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL T-STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE METROS 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY 
DOWNBURST WINDS IS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO, WATCHING A LINE OF 
STORMS OVER EASTERN OH WHICH HI-RES MODELS HAVE FAILED TO 
INITIALIZE WELL. CURRENT RADAR EXTRAPOLATION HAS THAT LINE 
REACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY 630 PM IF NOT SOONER. 
WHETHER THAT LINE REMAINS SEVERE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IS 
STILL A BIG UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS 
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT GIVEN 
ALL THE AMPLE MOISTURE. 

AS FOR THE HEAT, CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST HEAT INDICES WILL FALL 
SHORT OF THE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA AND PEAK AROUND 105 EAST OF 
THE BLUE RIDGE AND 100 WEST OF THERE.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon short term update from LWX:

 

Fall short of EHW criteria? According to some obs west of 95 to around route 15, we already reached that. I think the EHW was justified.

Nearest reporting 98.8/76.9. HI 115

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Fall short of EHW criteria? According to some obs west of 95 to around route 15, we already reached that. I think the EHW was justified.

Nearest reporting 98.8/76.9. HI 115

Agreed. I love LWX, never understood why there is always such reticence on the excessive heat warnings. I totally understand the issue with over warning, just seems like they are ultra-conservative with them.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount Holly afternoon AFD mentions the shortwave and storm chances this evening/overnight-

Latest analysis shows a very subtle boundary straddling the Delmarva and southern NJ on a southeast-northwest alignment. This boundary, after pushing south across the region overnight, will move back northeast across the region this evening into tonight. Dew points remain sultry on the south side of this boundary, but to the north, temperatures and dew points are running just a bit shy of expectations, keeping heat indices lower than expected. That said, will retain heat headlines as-is even though it looks like we may be falling short. Aloft, a notable shortwave is over the Appalachians to our west, heading east. This looks to be the trigger for thunderstorms now developing in that general vicinity. Expect these to continue moving generally eastward thru the rest of the afternoon into the evening, possibly crossing a majority of the region, but most likely areas from Philly south and west. They will be feeding on the weak shear with the aforementioned shortwave and the plentiful CAPE (over 2000 j/kg) just south of the aforementioned boundary. This will therefore provide at least a marginal risk of severe weather, so SPC has added these areas to the marginal risk. Will need to watch convection and instability trends closely this evening, as its not out of the question a further ramp-up is eventually needed, but for now am comfortable with current forecast. Shortwave moves on by overnight, but then remnants of developing MCS`s further west may come into play. Lots of uncertainty here, with some guidance showing them holding together late tonight into early Saturday, while others completely dissipate them as they cross the mountains. Thus, have slight chance POPS for most late tonight into Saturday morning.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perfectly positioned between cells blowing up south of winchester and ones crushing front royal.   The tail of the one south of winchester back built just enough as it's leaving to get me .10".  It's a joke, but it's the best we've had in a while, and apparently the best we can hope for.  Now listening to the thunder booming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...