MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 1 minute ago, TSG said: The big heat the GFS is throwing out for the Midwest next week is downright scary. I can't ever remember such a wide swathe being forecast that far over 100 degrees, for 12+ hours in a single day. Lows in KC Tuesday night would be in the upper 90s... There has been a discussion elsewhere about the GFS long range having trouble with surface temps because it is drying out the surface too quickly and the boundary layer schemes are having a hard time as it goes further into the forecast period. I'm skeptical that KC mixes to 600mbs and goes superadiabatic near the surface. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: If you have an account, you can do a station report summary. Here’s mine, for example, but you can chart any station. The custom map does this well. 4" around Burke indeed. The range across our region is amazing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, TSG said: The big heat the GFS is throwing out for the Midwest next week is downright scary. I can't ever remember such a wide swathe being forecast that far over 100 degrees, for 12+ hours in a single day. Lows in KC Tuesday night would be in the upper 90s... Well at least Earth is still tilted on its axis. We have that going for us...for now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Today has turned into a pretty classic, simple summer day. No smokey haze adds some bonus points. Not sure how I feel about the incoming heat wave, but I do like that there's at least a chance to see some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Oh baby. Just got to make it through Saturday. The year without a summer in DC and Baltimore. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There has been a discussion elsewhere about the GFS long range having trouble with surface temps because it is drying out the surface too quickly and the boundary layer schemes are having a hard time as it goes further into the forecast period. I'm skeptical that KC mixes to 600mbs and goes superadiabatic near the surface. I thought that looked a little odd but wasn't sure why, appreciate the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 The GFS is never wrong about warm temps in winter. just sayin 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 LWX bullish on t-storms tomorrow afternoon/evening with 70% chance even for the desert area. Not happening here but some lucky spots will cash in (congrats again AA and Balt). Some storms might be interesting with that much heat to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: The year without a summer in DC and Baltimore. I'm thinking 96/97 for all three days at DCA. Just a touch under what NWS is going (98/98/98). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm thinking 96/97 for all three days at DCA. Just a touch under what NWS is going (98/98/98). I'm thinking 100 on Friday at DCA... didn't Ian have a chart or something that had like temperatures that we needed to be at or hit in the morning to reach 100? Like 90 by 10am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 WB 18Z EURO likes 101 in DC tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: LWX bullish on t-storms tomorrow afternoon/evening with 70% chance even for the desert area. Not happening here but some lucky spots will cash in (congrats again AA and Balt). Some storms might be interesting with that much heat to work with. Yep. If you've been getting rain this month, congratulations, you're getting more tomorrow. Meanwhile, if you haven't gotten rain this summer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep. If you've been getting rain this month, congratulations, you're getting more tomorrow. Meanwhile, if you haven't gotten rain this summer.... I'm confused. Are you in Cross Junction or back in Stephens City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 33 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I'm confused. Are you in Cross Junction or back in Stephens City? I moved back to Stephens City in May. God help me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Yep. If you've been getting rain this month, congratulations, you're getting more tomorrow. Meanwhile, if you haven't gotten rain this summer....Definitely dry up in the Watershed. Biked one of the trails up there today and where there’s sometimes a stream, there was no stream. It’s great for mtb, but pretty much that whole area could use water. What’s wild is that it’s been humid lately…we just aren’t getting a widespread system that can generate enough lift to overcome the issues we face in the valleys like downsloping, etc. I can only assume the primary issue is due to a persistent, multi-seasonal nw flow without much gulf interaction. I could be wrong, but I haven’t seen any reasons being brought up beyond that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 54 minutes ago, 87storms said: Definitely dry up in the Watershed. Biked one of the trails up there today and where there’s sometimes a stream, there was no stream. It’s great for mtb, but pretty much that whole area could use water. What’s wild is that it’s been humid lately…we just aren’t getting a widespread system that can generate enough lift to overcome the issues we face in the valleys like downsloping, etc. I can only assume the primary issue is due to a persistent, multi-seasonal nw flow without much gulf interaction. I could be wrong, but I haven’t seen any reasons being brought up beyond that. No front to kick off uniform storms and rain . Just daytime build up hit or miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 8 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The custom map does this well. 4" around Burke indeed. The range across our region is amazing. Definitely. I was only addressing @mattie g’s concern regarding the consistency of any one station reporting regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO likes 101 in DC tomorrow. South wind will screw it up - guaranteed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Now they have likely shower/t-storm chances today thru Saturday. If places score one each day this will be one easy three-day heat wave for yards and gardens! I'll be happy with one 0.5 hit in that stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Definitely. I was only addressing @mattie g’s concern regarding the consistency of any one station reporting regularly. I'd love to be an observer, but I fear I'm too lazy to stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 11 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I moved back to Stephens City in May. God help me. That confused me too since your location still says Cross Junction. Probably too painful to change! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Lots of cloudiness that may affect high temps and tstorm chances. I fully expect to get little or no rain, so my only question is whether 98 is too bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Lots of cloudiness that may affect high temps and tstorm chances. I fully expect to get little or no rain, so my only question is whether 98 is too bullish Euro has corrected down to 96/97. I haven’t been bullish on this heat wave in terms of chances for 100 and I remain that way. It takes a rare airmass for 100. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Was kind of pleasant with the breeze while it was still overcast on my morning walk. That burned off around 830 and the streets got hot fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: South wind will screw it up - guaranteed. Or clouds. Or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 It’s 84 at IAD at 10 am, yesterday was 81 at the same time. Unless it clears up fast, we’re on pace to only hit 95. Thinking 96-97 is a realistic forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 If we were going to hit 100+, we should be at least 90 by now. We'll try again tomorrow. If not tomorrow, then next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 16 hours ago, MN Transplant said: I'm thinking 96/97 for all three days at DCA. Just a touch under what NWS is going (98/98/98). I think that pretty much what the 06Z GFS was forecasting. The GFS definitely has problems. It's been running hot or at least that has been my perception. Still 96 or 97 with dewpoints in the 70s is nasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Overcast and just 82 at 10:30. What an easy start to a heat wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: That confused me too since your location still says Cross Junction. Probably too painful to change! Ha! True. But the reality is I can't see it using mobile. I did just update it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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