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July Discobs 2023


George BM
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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some recent model runs, especially the 6z GFS, seem to be keying on a disturbance in the flow, potentially inducing an area of more widespread heavy showers for this evening.

gfs_z500_vort_neus_4.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_3.png

 

HRRR is very similar and has had the cluster of storms right through central MD between 5-7pm for multiple runs in a row now. 

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4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

HRRR is very similar and has had the cluster of storms right through central MD between 5-7pm for multiple runs in a row now. 

12 km NAM and FV3 HR look very similar to the GFS, with some timing differences. Latest 3km NAM has some action too, but somewhat different placement within the region.

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38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some recent model runs, especially the 6z GFS, seem to be keying on a disturbance in the flow, potentially inducing an area of more widespread heavy showers for this evening.

gfs_z500_vort_neus_4.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_3.png

 

I got over a half inch of rain the other day, but whiffed yesterday. I'd be happy with that little bullseye this afternoon/evening.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I got over a half inch of rain the other day, but whiffed yesterday. I'd be happy with that little bullseye this afternoon/evening.

Maybe today ends up the better day for more places. Yesterday was more talked up, but it didn't produce much in our region.

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Impressive heat this month. Hagerstown is up to 8th place all-time. I like to use Hagerstown, since it's outside of the Baltimore-Washington urban heat island. Incredibly, 7 of the top 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2010.

image.png.91b680dd14a1c9a8ffe80326b8d13da7.png

Excluding years on or after 2010, this month would place in third place, just behind the hot Julys of 1955 and 1999, and tying 1988. By comparison, the "so-called" hottest July on record in 1936 saw a mean temperature of 73.8F. Excluding a 7-day heat wave that month [July 9-15], the mean for the other 24 days was an incredibly comfortable, summer of yesteryear-esque 71.4F.

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46 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe today ends up the better day for more places. Yesterday was more talked up, but it didn't produce much in our region.

It's probably only based on how "surprise days" feel to us, but it does seem like we produce better when there's less expectation.

Kind of like corn dust.

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Visited my cousin in Canton yesterday and looks like I missed a couple of imby cells.  Looking at radar loops, I don't think I missed anything too dramatic, but it does look like upwards of 0.25" fell.  Still waiting on a flush hit...hoping to capitalize on some of this heat.

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