yoda Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Pouring here right now as that line straddles i95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 The models have lost their minds for the next 36 hours!!!! The 18z NAM gives me 4 inches of rain and the 3z NAM gives me .25"....................... This type of discrepancy is unacceptable in today's world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 All week and this weekend will be no different, west of 95 is a shut out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Darkening clouds over my house in ashburn. Let’s see if they do produce. Not holding my breath though edit: gusty winds. So maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Picked up a quick .22 in S. Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, stormy said: The models have lost their minds for the next 36 hours!!!! The 18z NAM gives me 4 inches of rain and the 3z NAM gives me .25"....................... This type of discrepancy is unacceptable in today's world. Welcome to mesoscale forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 56 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Darkening clouds over my house in ashburn. Let’s see if they do produce. Not holding my breath though edit: gusty winds. So maybe Light shower. Enough to wet the surface, but not the soil. Will only increase humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Welcome to mesoscale forecasting. I do this all the time with a 2 , 3 or 4 model blend for my newsletter. I have often wondered about the sometimes wide ranging differential under 48 hours. I understand that interpretation of atmospherics is crucial, but monumental variance is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, stormy said: I do this all the time with a 2 , 3 or 4 model blend for my newsletter. I have often wondered about the sometimes wide ranging differential under 48 hours. I understand that interpretation of atmospherics is crucial, but monumental variance is surprising. 2 hours ago, stormy said: The models have lost their minds for the next 36 hours!!!! The 18z NAM gives me 4 inches of rain and the 3z NAM gives me .25"....................... This type of discrepancy is unacceptable in today's world. The 18z 12 NAM is already a bust. On to the 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 The models have lost their minds for the next 36 hours!!!! The 18z NAM gives me 4 inches of rain and the 3z NAM gives me .25"....................... This type of discrepancy is unacceptable in today's world. I always considered the Nam (and especially the 3k) as a tool to use to get an idea of whether there will be any convection, but I don’t find it as useful for determining where it will actually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Morning AFD on heavy rain threat from Mount Holly- Heavy Rain/Flash flooding: There are a lot of factors increasing our concern with the heavy rain threat. For much of the region, models depict precipitable water values around 2 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Additionally, the warm cloud layer should be between 10K and 14K ft through much of this period (meaning storms will be far more efficient with heavy rain rates). While storm motions will be slightly faster than what we`ve seen the last few days (generally 10 to 20 mph), but depending on how quickly the low lifts northeast, there could be potential for training storms as the mean cloud layer flow is expected to be parallel to the front for much of the period. Given the increasing concern for flash flood potential, expanded the flood watch to include the entire area. Although flash flood guidance is generally higher in southern DE, adjacent areas of MD, and SE NJ, concern is for flooding along the more flash flood vulnerable coastal and tidal areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Let's see if my drought-stricken area can finally cash in. I have just 0.85 for July after a very dry June. I also have not seen 1" in a day in ages. This just feels like another 0.2 or less deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Let's see if my drought-stricken area can finally cash in. I have just 0.85 for July after a very dry June. I also have not seen 1" in a day in ages. This just feels like another 0.2 or less deal. Leesburg has been in a tiny little precip hole too. We're sitting at a measly 0.5" for the month as everything seems to be collapsing just before getting here. I'm optimistic about today though... things will ultimately even out:) This rainfall estimate from the past 72 hours shows that hole pretty well. Sidenote... why did iWeather stop letting you actually zoom in on their maps? Makes them far less useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Picked up 0.48” yesterday 75/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 HRRR really loves I-270 and points north and east today. Some parts of NE Maryland and Baltimore metro really jackpot (3"+). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said: Leesburg has been in a tiny little precip hole too. We're sitting at a measly 0.5" for the month as everything seems to be collapsing just before getting here. I'm optimistic about today though... things will ultimately even out:) This rainfall estimate from the past 72 hours shows that hole pretty well. Sidenote... why did iWeather stop letting you actually zoom in on their maps? Makes them far less useful We went to the Tarara winery near Leesburg last night and the ground was dry as a bone there - even worse than my micro-desert. I really miss the zoomable iweather rainfall map! I don't even use it any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=673&yr=2023 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Pregame is starting to fire up around Bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 It’s an absolute deluge at the lake right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=673&yr=2023 It's a shame the trough aix isn't further SW into say SW PA. We'd be game on for a truly interesting day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Radar looking good out to the west. Better than models progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 I never like being on the southern edge of any meso discussion…and the orientation and movement on radar isn’t changing that feeling. Picked up a quick 0.15” yesterday and would be happy with some good mom-stormy rains today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, mattie g said: I never like being on the southern edge of any meso discussion…and the orientation and movement on radar isn’t changing that feeling. Picked up a quick 0.15” yesterday and would be happy with some good mom-stormy rains today. Same feeling this has all the makings for 0.04" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Radar looking good out to the west. Better than models progged? Cautiously agree with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out for Carroll, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Cecil, and Harford counties until 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out for Carroll, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Cecil, and Harford counties until 6pm. Just took down a portable canopy, brought in pool floats, etc. woo storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 I-83 jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 You can see the orographic enhancement along Catoctin Mt. and into S. Central PA already. Classic summertime setup for heavy rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 the sun just came out at my house. you can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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