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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Umm Aug is an exact replica of July. Goes wet humid and stormy . You get 2-3 days early like this weekend and then it back 

Can you show us some upper level progs to illustrate this August pattern?  I’m curious what I should be looking for.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at both ensembles. Both show GL trough 

I’m seeing both ensembles looking like the trough is much further east than it was.  Im not saying I think it’s right (haven’t paid enough attention), I’m just saying if you are using those as “supporting docs” then it’s not what is shown exactly.

For example, this is a 7-day mean of the EPS, with trough centered over us not Great Lakes.

EA176CBB-A189-41E3-801F-A9C8216B1C7D.thumb.png.97d5492f5999b7058a5ebdd2234aa0fe.png
Can see the 2-M temps also reflect that, not in GL.  This is first week of August and that’s as far as they run.

0B3CE09A-0CB7-4847-A3B1-F75A1872191E.thumb.png.74dedbd15fe771e7e977fc6a10ed44b7.png
 

Meanwhile the GEFS are further east, over us and into Maritimes.  That’s much different mean than over the GL.

8E63668B-4039-4E65-B712-CE00A427EC57.thumb.png.febd5a95d2d6cf16acfa4a18d8708d3d.png
2-M temps also reflect it July 31-Aug 7 to end of run.

AD19D1A7-73B1-4D59-9581-1888800C4B83.thumb.png.f0d9050fa16d32858b3102858745c310.png

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m seeing both ensembles looking like the trough is much further east than it was.  Im not saying I think it’s right, I’m just saying if you are using those as “supporting docs” then it’s not what is shown exactly.

For example, this is a 7-day mean of the EPS, with trough centered over us not Great Lakes.

EA176CBB-A189-41E3-801F-A9C8216B1C7D.thumb.png.97d5492f5999b7058a5ebdd2234aa0fe.png
Can see the 2-M temps also reflect that, not in GL.  This is first week of August and that’s as far as they run.

0B3CE09A-0CB7-4847-A3B1-F75A1872191E.thumb.png.74dedbd15fe771e7e977fc6a10ed44b7.png
 

Meanwhile the GEFS are further east, over us and into Maritimes.  That’s much different mean than over the GL.

8E63668B-4039-4E65-B712-CE00A427EC57.thumb.png.febd5a95d2d6cf16acfa4a18d8708d3d.png
2-M temps also reflect it July 31-Aug 7 to end of run.

AD19D1A7-73B1-4D59-9581-1888800C4B83.thumb.png.f0d9050fa16d32858b3102858745c310.png

Charts lol. Nobody looks at those.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at both ensembles. Both show GL trough . This was how the last 4 weeks looked . FF to Augdewst . Rinse repeat 

VVzd8CQ.jpg

See I'll disagree.  I saved a bunch of media from the time of big rains and flooding.

The trough this month was much further west.

Compare these to the image you posted.  That trough is much further east, directly over us.  That would not allow humid warm air to stream into our zone and there's no battle ground over us.

This month's pattern that brought humid rains had heights rising over us and the below normal heights well west.  That allowed that humid moist air to fire directly northward into our region... and we were in the battle zone between trough and ridge.

EPS Mid-July

Untitled.thumb.jpg.67d56e0956193d1ab4ea20f5b64457f6.jpg

GEFS Mid-July.

UntitledGFS.thumb.jpg.6c6611592533f93fce9877d8ae2a46b3.jpg

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I'll disagree.  I saved a bunch of media from the time of big rains and flooding.

The trough this month was much further west.

Compare these to the image you posted.  That trough is so much further east directly over us.  That would not allow humid warm air to stream into our zone and there's no battle ground over us.

This month's pattern that brought humid rains had heights rising over us and the below normal heights well west.  That allowed that humid moist air to fire directly northward into our region... and we were in the battle zone between trough and ridge.

EPS Mid-July

Untitled.thumb.jpg.67d56e0956193d1ab4ea20f5b64457f6.jpg

GEFS Mid-July.

UntitledGFS.thumb.jpg.6c6611592533f93fce9877d8ae2a46b3.jpg

As long as axis is west it’s wet n dewy . We’ll get some met interpretations tomorrow. But Scooter has been saying lean stormy and dewy with a day or two dry in between 

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Need that trough west otherwise it’s recurve city in August 

Agreed, it needs to be back where it was in the upper Midwest stretching into the Lakes at times so we stay on the far eastern edge where heights are rising.

As modeled that trough is deflecting everything.

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Looks like we get a COC shot early next week and then a return to a wetter and more humid pattern. But the overall temps don’t look that warm depending on how the front stalls. 
 

It looks like things retro a bit heading into August so my guess is that we overall turn warmer as ridging offshore tries to build west a bit.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we get a COC shot early next week and then a return to a wetter and more humid pattern. But the overall temps don’t look that warm depending on how the front stalls. 
 

It looks like things retro a bit heading into August so my guess is that we overall turn warmer as ridging offshore tries to build west a bit.

Euro EPS GEFS are all in with low dews sunny days next week. Let's do this. Big time heater this week. Reminds me of 2013

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we get a COC shot early next week and then a return to a wetter and more humid pattern. But the overall temps don’t look that warm depending on how the front stalls. 
 

It looks like things retro a bit heading into August so my guess is that we overall turn warmer as ridging offshore tries to build west a bit.

You can lead a gift horse to water.. but can’t force them to drink. Rinse repeat of Julorch .. just Aug style 

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