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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


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Finally making a run on summer,

Today: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 58. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
 


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59 was the low here. Relative to KFIT, the nearest NWS 'official' site and mere 8 miles away as the crow flies, that is close to 1 deg cooler than normal. 

However, we are in the Nashoba Valley, which typically tanks lower on rad nights ... so, it may in fact be normal for this specific location; but I have no idea what the climate norms are for Ayer Ma at this specific location. 

So, call it normal lows and a day.

The models are waffling on the exact orientation of the westerlies across the eastern continent later this week. The Euro and GGEM's panache leans more zonal - between the persistent W ridge and a recently emerged WAR-like west Atlantic.  That's a fragile look ... one the GFS cannot resist. So it gnaws at and ultimately finds the mechanical means to dig into the 'crevice' between, which evacs the heat away before an official wave can be tallied.  

The 850 mb layout of both the Euro and GGEM for Wed-Fri would easily support a heat wave, but their 2-meter results are capped to the barely 90.  Not sure why they are not better mixed ... but, I've also noted in the past that both these sources tend to limit 2-meters unrealistically.  The GFS mixes too much - a facet that is hidden because it bullies troughs too quickly... it's like it creates an error to compensate for another error, and ends up better with the 2-meter. Lol.  But it does overly mix regardless.  That's why it's always 113 F Iowa out in time...blah blah.

Anyway, the pattern scaffold does look fragile though. It would be more convincing for a heat wave if the WAR would actually physically retrograde and lift the flow orientation into a ridge arc. Or, have the ridge in the west roll east and do it that way.  Without that structure it's harder to parse this fragility out of the known model biases.

What a f'n migraine it is getting Earth to set up a heat wave in New England this year.  man ... with the heat press/media about the world, it seems we must be the hero compensating cold region.

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