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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


Typhoon Tip
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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya I saw a couple GFS runs had something so I looked and was surprised  to see a few members  looked threatening.. 

I honestly wasn’t even plugged into tropical the last two weeks with my trip but came across the same today. EPS had a modest signal in the long range too.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One PWS in Leominster is already at 12” of rain for the month.  Yowza

I was just writing about this over in the July 16 coverage - we may have an opportunity to dry out some over the next 10 days.

Don't know of it's permanence ... it could be a 'relax before reload' routine.   I don't see any reason why the latter would not happen.  I doomed this summer ( clearly ) when I off-the-cuff wrote back in early May that this might be a +PNA summer.   So yup - it's my metaphysical fault.

Longer op ed, it's been unusual.  There has persisted a definitive R-wave ( Rossby wave) structure that is more typically vanquished by seasonal nebularity ... by even mid June. That was so during the climate dimensions of that last several Millennia, but apparently, we've crossed unknowingly through a climate-event horizon, and in this universe ...we sustain winter pattern geometry in very high hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. 

I actually do - jokes aside - think this may be another of these sneaky no-one-is-paying attention emergence' that is tied to CC.  The heat ridge in the west is perhaps driving this look more than the Pacific is forcing.  I've seen the Pacific modulate either side of neutrality these last couple of months ... yet the features spanning the downstream continent seem to remain quasi immovable, like stones in a stream.  The way it "might work' (supposition), the thermal ridge is so overwhelming that is constructively interfering with the normal topographic N/A pattern forcing - which the basal structure is a flat ridge over the Rockies. The two together becomes a constructive interference (harmonic amplitude), which isn't being countermanded enough by the Pacific, so the system feeds back and it's self-perpetuating the ridge there. 

But over the next 10 days... the AO is more obviously switching modes ( the NAO as well), more so than previous weeks.  There are other evidence that the GLAAM may be trying to switch more positive...  These indices, albeit weakly, do correlate with zonal flow ...

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Actually tomorrow is a bit interesting. Don't think we'll see widespread storms because we're lacking better shortwave forcing, though dynamics, particularly upper-level dynamics are quite strong, but could see some strong storms around and motions should be relatively slow so probably see a localized flash flood risk. Western sections are favored, but could see some activity make its way east during the overnight. 

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