ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 NAM is definitely uneasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: NAM is definitely uneasy That in NYC would be interesting to say the least. Several zones of 2”+ from Canada to the South Coast showing the potential… but the consensus of a stripe of 4-8” seems to continue to aim from NYC area NE-ward into CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 26 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The entire neighborhood may fall victim to a mudslide. I don't enjoy others' suffering but watching him try to spin that into a positive would be so entertaining. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: NAM is definitely uneasy Back in the ancient days of the ETA … that model was really good at next day convective initiation … it’s progeny was the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That in NYC would be interesting to say the least. Several zones of 2”+ from Canada to the South Coast showing the potential… but the consensus of a stripe of 4-8” seems to continue to aim from NYC area NE-ward into CT. I like and accept the .28 over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That in NYC would be interesting to say the least. Several zones of 2”+ from Canada to the South Coast showing the potential… but the consensus of a stripe of 4-8” seems to continue to aim from NYC area NE-ward into CT. That strip almost matches the HRRR in terms of placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Epic day tomorrow! Exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Should start a thread for it like we did for VT threat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Should start a thread for it like we did for VT threat Done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Big difference between last week and this upcoming event. Last week had low level winds intersecting the boundary, creating a more widespread rainfall pattern. Tomorrow the low level winds parallel the boundary, which will be a recipe for narrow but potentially significant rainfall distribution. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Big difference between last week and this upcoming event. Last week had low level winds intersecting the boundary, creating a more widespread rainfall pattern. Tomorrow the low level winds parallel the boundary, which will be a recipe for narrow but potentially significant rainfall distribution. Great analysis. Makes sense. That SE flow led to more widespread max lift, while the second image has the flow aligning with the boundary orientation. Leads to a more narrow max axis potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 7 hours ago, CT Rain said: Not gonna lie - this is a frightening look. 12-24” + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 6 hours ago, Hoth said: If I see his truck floating in Long Island Sound, I'll let you know. Have never had water in basement. Benefit to living on hilltop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have never had water in basement. Benefit to living on hilltop Agreed. I, too, am king of a hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have never had water in basement. Benefit to living on hilltop I never had either until last Monday. During the hardest downpour, it started coming up through the floor drain. Once the rain backed off. It went back down. We were able to use the shop vac to clean it up. No damage done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Looks like we may dry the pattern out a bit after this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I can’t remember a warmer rain. I walked outside and it felt like shower water coming down. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Friday could be another nasty day with some severe potential. Similar to Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Kev and Scott must be in their glory with intense dews for as far as the eye can see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have never had water in basement. Benefit to living on hilltop There are other risk factors, like living on a slope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Hopefully some posts from Tip next week about exiting the solar max to get me through this. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully some posts from Tip next week about exiting the solar max to get me through this. Keep the TP closeby and a spare pair of undies in your pocket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are other risk factors, like living in a slope... I actually live on a slope but a French drain ftw diverting the water down to the bottom of the hill away from the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Gotta hope to avoid dipping into the 50s this week so we can make a run at never going below 60° for the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Gotta hope to avoid dipping into the 50s this week so we can make a run at never going below 60° for the entire month. No need to worry . You’re safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Looking at the EPS and GEFS it looks like SOME of them are trying to form something in the Atlantic and move it close to the east coast in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Looking at the EPS and GEFS it looks like SOME of them are trying to form something in the Atlantic and move it close to the east coast in the long range Window opens late July early August IMO. Watch the steering pattern.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Window opens late July early August IMO. Watch the steering pattern.. Ya I saw a couple GFS runs had something so I looked and was surprised to see a few members looked threatening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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