weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Pretty poor lapse rates. Possible red flag? Lapse rates are really more important when looking at the potential for significant severe and potential for widespread severe. When dealing with potential for isolated or localized severe lapse rates aren’t as important. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Timmer coming! Maybe hitting Moosup! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 00z HRRR gone wild across interior CT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Absolutely drunk. Throw this in the weenie model hall of fame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Absolutely drunk. Throw this in the weenie model hall of fame. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Not gonna lie - this is a frightening look. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: Not gonna lie - this is a frightening look. that would be pretty horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 It’d be really really bad, all kidding aside. But it looks like one of those winter nuclear runs that goes takes a strong setup and takes it to a biblical level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Crazy to think of what that’d mean verbatim but it’s a five bun run on its face. Will be interesting to see if the NAM and HREF amp up some tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 ummm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Several clusters of storms for about 15-20 hours starting at midnight. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 There’s definitely going to be at least a narrow swath of significant totals tomorrow in the 6-8” range but it’s just a matter of how widespread that swath is and what are the highest totals. The degree of lift over the region aided by a pretty intense ulvl jet and llvl theta-e is going to be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 The 3km NAM has been showing some very impressive bullseyes too - just all over the place with location. The 18z run had 13" of rain near Albany lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Great. Narrowly missed losing property in Vermont Monday. Now hanging at our house in Central CT. Unintentional storm chasing. And we have a dead oak tree hanging over the house we have been trying to get removed for weeks. Hello 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: There’s definitely going to be at least a narrow swath of significant totals tomorrow in the 6-8” range but it’s just a matter of how widespread that swath is and what are the highest totals. The degree of lift over the region aided by a pretty intense ulvl jet and llvl theta-e is going to be bad news. Not to mention soils are saturated, rivers and streams are running very high, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not gonna lie - this is a frightening look. As we’ve seen several times across the northeast this past month, the atmosphere seems to want to drop big rain amounts. The water table region wide is very high, any of these events will cause big impacts. Active jet (great divergence aloft) and upper level energy with troughs continually interacting with this moisture rich air. High PWATS all the time now. How often do we see 5-10” rain amounts forecast? Seems like each event now. Wild stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: Not to mention soils are saturated, rivers and streams are running very high, etc. yup that’s can’t go overlooked here at all. We get widespread 3-4”+ in a short amount of time and it’s going to be ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 It’s a strong setup for sure. PWATS 2-3 SD above normal. Someone will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yup that’s can’t go overlooked here at all. We get widespread 3-4”+ in a short amount of time and it’s going to be ugly. Was thinking about it this morning actually…this seems like a long duration flood for the CT river. Not expected to drop below flood stage for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 getting up at 6 seems like a fun tracking and chasing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Was thinking about it this morning actually…this seems like a long duration flood for the CT river. Not expected to drop below flood stage for the next few days. Have to see what the NAM comes in with but it seems pretty difficult to not expect a widespread 3-4”. The rainfall rates are going to be insane with those PWATS and Convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not to mention soils are saturated, rivers and streams are running very high, etc. My gutters drain underground, last storm it was apparently filled and was bubbling over. Saw the same thing yesterday in Auburn at a house I was doing during the down pour yesterday. Hasn't happened since I've been here for 29 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Several clusters of storms for about 15-20 hours starting at midnight. Yikes lol nice 20 spot for Kev. That'll keep the dews up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, DavisStraight said: My gutters drain underground, last storm it was apparently filled and was bubbling over. Saw the same thing yesterday in Auburn at a house I was doing during the down pour. Hasn't happened since I've been here for 29 years. I know we mostly kid with the Stein stuff, but I truly feel like I’m living on a different planet down here. my gutters run underground and drop into a ditch behind my property. The ditch was dry today, despite the recent rainfall we’ve had. It just hasn’t been substantial enough to really saturate the ground of overwhelm any water holding reservoirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: lol nice 20 spot for Kev. That'll keep the dews up for a while. Kev arguing about Davis dews again while his basement floods tomorrow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Kev arguing about Davis dews again while his basement floods tomorrow? If I see his truck floating in Long Island Sound, I'll let you know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: If I see his truck floating in Long Island Sound, I'll let you know. The entire neighborhood may fall victim to a mudslide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The entire neighborhood may fall victim to a mudslide. 1955 redux? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I see his truck floating in Long Island Sound, I'll let you know. He’ll take solace in the fact that at least it’ll be continuously washed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know we mostly kid with the Stein stuff, but I truly feel like I’m living on a different planet down here. my gutters run underground and drop into a ditch behind my property. The ditch was dry today, despite the recent rainfall we’ve had. It just hasn’t been substantial enough to really saturate the ground of overwhelm any water holding reservoirs It’s funny how much our opinions are based on other regional observations and the jackpot zone. TAN is on pace for an 8-inch July based on rainfall through the first 14 days. Stein lol. But it’s true that ORH and BDL are on a 16-inch pace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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