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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


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WAR usually really flexes towards late July/August.   Seems a bit early.  I’m wondering how hot it can get?

Back to the ORH dew discussion yesterday-it DID feel less humid but hot yesterday in Worcester when I was there.  
 

Today I’m at 84/72 while 9 miles ne at BOS it’s 75/72.

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32 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Humid but nice here with some sun. Finally gulf of Maine dong is over someone else’s head

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yea we managed to luck out today somehow in the fishtail of cumberland county. Still lost a good 6 hours of insolation but we may be able to salvage the rest of the day if convection doesn't move in too soon. The rest of cumberland and points east look pretty porked the rest of the day, if anything the marine sludge is expanding inland even further.

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23 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

WAR has been flexing more in the D6-10 range past couple days .. end of next week and next weekend looking toasty with dews 

I noticed that, too

Not that it matters a whole helluva lot of difference defining the following, but I'm not sure it's WAR exerting as much as an aspect emerging out of changes taking place over the hemisphere/planetary scales.

The pattern evolution can cause west Atlantic ridging to formulate and retro and all the happy torrid stuff.  But, in this case I'm not sure we're seeing those markers preceding.   It's complex but it looks like the models are "allowing" the expansion more because the GLAAM is flipping signs  (global atmospheric angular momentum)

AAM isn't a forcing mechanism onto itself, it is a measurment - but it's useful because -GLAAM correlates with blocking, and +GLAAM with longitudinal flow structures. This latter lends to advance, N, of the westerlies in the means, and the expansion of STR nodes - typically those that are canonical to summer. WAR is one of those...

There are no calculation/products ( that I'm aware) that directly project the AAM based up guidance inputs ( it would be neat if that were done ), but it can be strongly inferred by combinations of atmospheric indices.   In this case, the AO is rising with concerted membership in the GEFs, showing minimal spread at D10+ ( which is tough to do in the summer, when the individual members tend to wonder out in time).  So you end up with a stable looking index about +.5 SD.  

Very recently, the MJO is strengthening in RMM around STR correlative phase 5 .. which is also correlated with AO.  It's "teleconnector covergence" that spans much bigger than just a local hemisphere, which can produce a WAR or WAR-like ridge response in its own rights.  It's not hurting that the PNA is diving and will nadir this week, only to limp a recovery into week 2. In essence, STRs may be expanding everywhere.

It is noted that the ECMWF is not as emphatic about these changes, but ... full disclosure, I'm not sure ( personally) that matters as much as it used to.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sucker holed just in time for my return lol

Proposed to my now wife at Acadia during peak fall color. It’s a fantastic park and Bar Harbor is a great community. 

We stayed in one of the cottages of Bar Harbor Motor Inn on days 4 and 5 of our honeymoon in 1971.  On 6/24 we bought 2 cooked lobsters and headed up Cadillac for a Maine luncheon with a view.  Plenty of parking places - maybe 10 cars there at most - and the lobsters were delicious, but . . .
--Visibility was 50 yards in fog - first reason there were few cars there.
--We forgot to grab napkins - anyone who has tackled whole lobsters knows what a disaster that was.
--The facilities and fountains had yet to be opened/turned on - 2nd reason for the empty lots.
We still laugh about it.

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1 hour ago, tunafish said:

That would be my head.  Guess what?

 

I don't like dongs over my head.

Goos afternoon t f. I guess then it would be best for you to stay away from the current ‘library readings’ trend. Stay well, as always ….. 

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 09 2023 - 12Z Mon Jul 10 2023 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...20Z Update...

...Mid-Atlantic through New England...

In coordination with all the forecast offices from DC/Baltimore 
north through New England, a Moderate Risk area was introduced 
with this afternoon's update for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into 
western New England. All guidance continues to hone in on a 
corridor of heavy rainfall caused by numerous training showers and 
thunderstorms developing across the Moderate Risk area Sunday 
afternoon for southern and western areas, then progressing through 
New England Sunday Night. Expect a widespread 2-4 inch event 
especially from eastern PA north through VT. However local amounts 
are likely to exceed 6 inches of rain, with the most likely areas 
for the higher rainfall totals through the Catskills/Poconos of 
NY/PA and also through the Green Mountains of VT. Much of this 
area has been very hard hit in recent days with heavy rainfall, 
with a large area over 300% of climatological normal rains per 
2-week AHPS data. Adding a stalling front into the mix which will 
allow for training of abnormally high moisture air on the order of 
PWATs to 1.75 inches makes for a likely scenario for flash 
flooding, especially when adding terrain influences into the mix.

With the full day's worth of HREF data first available at 12Z, 
it's notable that portions of east central VT have a 30% chance of 
exceeding 100-year annual return intervals for the amount of rain 
expected, with the Catskills/Poconos and Green Mountains all over 
70% chance of exceeding 3 and 6 hour FFGs Sunday afternoon and 
evening. The steady signal of widespread rain and good model 
agreement on both timing and areal amounts added enough confidence 
to the forecast to upgrade to the Moderate Risk for this update.
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