CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Definite spinner potential on Monday Yeah need to watch near low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Like sweat through your ass crack, these are the dews of our lives. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 75/73 clouds have rolled in or smoke from our friends from Canada? A lot of lawns in my area showing fungus, and people keep pounding the water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The jackpot for Irene was SW VT to S Central VT and E ‘Dacks. Berkshire and Franklin County‘s in Massachusetts got hit pretty good with total QPF but not as bad as the aforementioned areas. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The whole state got nailed but I know that area was real bad. In VT, it seemed like I-89 was a dividing line. South of 89 got it much worse, up to and including Waterbury. North of 89 had some damage but not nearly as bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, mreaves said: In VT, it seemed like I-89 was a dividing line. South of 89 got it much worse, up to and including Waterbury. North of 89 had some damage but not nearly as bad. People literally had signs that said please help us. I know the Okemo area was crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Where’s this “fog and low cloud burn off”? Figures the weekend is in the toilet sun wise. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said: Where’s this “fog and low cloud burn off”? Figures the weekend is in the toilet sun wise. We have had a few patches of blue sky and sun. But mostly mank this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Blazin up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, mreaves said: In VT, it seemed like I-89 was a dividing line. South of 89 got it much worse, up to and including Waterbury. North of 89 had some damage but not nearly as bad. Yeah this map shows the road damage. We got hit pretty hard around Stowe too but the terrain up here opens up quite a bit more. Central VT has a lot more hilly terrain and narrow drainages. It’s tighter so to speak. Really multiplies that rainfall. Up north and into NEK, it feels more wide open than the hills in central/southern Vt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah this map shows the road damage. We got hit pretty hard around Stowe too but the terrain up here opens up quite a bit more. Central VT has a lot more hilly terrain and narrow drainages. It’s tighter so to speak. Really multiplies that rainfall. Up north and into NEK, it feels more wide open than the hills in central/southern Vt. We drove back to Ludlow once from Woodstock and definitely some steep terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Was that Round Valley in NJ? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk No, West Fayson Lake in northern Morris County. Round Valley is 35 miles SW and about 30 times larger. That 3-4” in one hour on radar estimates near Killington with legit mudslides really f*cked up RT 4 it sounds like. Pics looked similar to Jay Maine after 5-6" in <3 hours on June 29. The last homeowners to regain access to their homes (or to leave) was provided only yesterday. State highway Rt 133 is still local access only for 6-7 miles, with no thru traffic. Last weekend a pickup driver went past cones/signs and ended up on the driver's side in a washout. No injuries. Strong storms just north last evening. Quick 3/4" in Farmington with minor flooding near McDonalds, 0.11" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 We E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said: Where’s this “fog and low cloud burn off”? Figures the weekend is in the toilet sun wise. Sun's out guns out here. Corker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, mreaves said: In VT, it seemed like I-89 was a dividing line. South of 89 got it much worse, up to and including Waterbury. North of 89 had some damage but not nearly as bad. Our area got 4"+, less toward Augusta, but the Carrabassett drainage (Sugarloaf area) had 8+, with that river's peak flow topping 30,000 cfs, 2nd highest in 100 years record. (Since topped by May 1 this year at 35k, but 1987 stands alone at over 50k.) The 'Loaf was isolated as bridges on Rt 27 north and south of the access road were washed away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Hoping the pattern changes a bit by the end of the month. Heading to Acadia National Park area for a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sun's out guns out here. Corker Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hoping the pattern changes a bit by the end of the month. Heading to Acadia National Park area for a week. As long as it's not raining or wrapped in fog, Acadia is great. Our last visit was 3 years ago with our 2 oldest grandkids and conditions were what I'm looking at right now - low 70s, humid, cloudy. It was quite windy at Cadillac summit, which actually was fun for the kids. Unfortunately, it was the wrong tide for Thunder Hole; I've seen swimming pools with bigger waves. (Note: One now has to sign up for the drive up Cadillac, to prevent having more cars than can be parked at the top.) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hello dewpoints , my old friend.. we are thankful you’ve come to visit us again..streaming sweat softly creeping.. down Ray’s asscrack , it is gleaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker. Sucker holed just in time for my return lol 35 minutes ago, tamarack said: As long as it's not raining or wrapped in fog, Acadia is great. Our last visit was 3 years ago with our 2 oldest grandkids and conditions were what I'm looking at right now - low 70s, humid, cloudy. It was quite windy at Cadillac summit, which actually was fun for the kids. Unfortunately, it was the wrong tide for Thunder Hole; I've seen swimming pools with bigger waves. (Note: One now has to sign up for the drive up Cadillac, to prevent having more cars than can be parked at the top.) Proposed to my now wife at Acadia during peak fall color. It’s a fantastic park and Bar Harbor is a great community. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker. It's like we have two moving sets of goal posts in forecasting - both plausibly erring or succeeding independent of one another. #1 The models tend to over produce ... #2 The outcome tends to over-achieve ... Those may sound the same but are entirely different. It's less likely that much will result .. but some smaller insets between NNE and NYC will train and mudslide and fill basements and washout roads. In the case of #1 ... the model(s) does/do go ahead and verify - "tend" does not mean always. In the cast of #2 ... where it rains, it will tend to do so with unexpected local overtop results. There are two aspect in play, sub-dividing this category. One ... CC is absolutely effecting rain rates world over and that is non-controvertible empirical fact. But that comes with increased frequency in "synergistic results" - seeming outperforming the input mertrics. The other aspect is just related to the high DPs in the area, and is more functional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We E? Sounds like 95% of the summers over the last 2 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker. Cape and SE Mass look like the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 52 minutes ago, tamarack said: As long as it's not raining or wrapped in fog, Acadia is great. Our last visit was 3 years ago with our 2 oldest grandkids and conditions were what I'm looking at right now - low 70s, humid, cloudy. It was quite windy at Cadillac summit, which actually was fun for the kids. Unfortunately, it was the wrong tide for Thunder Hole; I've seen swimming pools with bigger waves. (Note: One now has to sign up for the drive up Cadillac, to prevent having more cars than can be parked at the top.) Yup. We are hoping to secure either a sunrise or sunset spot. They become available 6 months out for some then two days out at 10AM for others. We have a National Parks pass but will need a couple of others for individual items. We are staying on the Schoodic side so that is hopefully a bit quieter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sounds like 95% of the summers over the last 2 decades. The Deep South is now us in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's like we have two moving sets of goal posts in forecasting - both plausibly erring or succeeding independent of one another. #1 The models tend to over produce ... #2 The outcome tends to over-achieve ... Those may sound the same but are entirely different. It's less likely that much will result .. but some smaller insets between NNE and NYC will train and mudslide and fill basements and washout roads. In the case of #1 ... the model(s) does/do go ahead and verify - "tend" does not mean always. In the cast of #2 ... where it rains, it will tend to do so with unexpected local overtop results. There are two aspect in play, sub-dividing this category. One ... CC is absolutely effecting rain rates world over and that is non-controvertible empirical fact. But that comes with increased frequency in "synergistic results" - seeming outperforming the input mertrics. The other aspect is just related to the high DPs in the area, and is more functional. This is what I was envisioning and trying to convey yesterday I believe (though not as eloquently). The warm season rainfall footprint is often significantly less widespread than models show, but the “jackpots” will see more water than models show. I think that’s what you are getting at too. Like 3-4” won’t be that widespread but where it trains could double those amounts. The models are take like a “basin average” approach to QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is what I was envisioning and trying to convey yesterday I believe (though not as eloquently). The warm season rainfall footprint is often significantly less widespread than models show, but the “jackpots” will see more water than models show. I think that’s what you are getting at too. Like 3-4” won’t be that widespread but where it trains could double those amounts. The models are take like a “basin average” approach to QPF. Yeah bold ^ is the summary. But I think the reasons I mentioned regarding CC and model errors ... It is what is - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Humid but nice here with some sun. Finally gulf of Maine dong is over someone else’s head https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer Edibles. Water 86 barely refreshing. Weed whacked and died. But all outside duties complete, lets get the party started. Summer Shanty Linenkugel, grill fired up for steak kabobs. LFG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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