July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month

[HoarfrostHubb]

88/64 at KFIT’s last hourly update. HI of 89

send this for the next month please

[WhiteLawns]

3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Can I share this on the news tonight? This is awesome. 

@CT Rainyes! I’ll send the high res photo to your inbox on Facebook. I’ll save a version without my watermark and send it your way.

[PWMan]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Man, early next week looks like dog food in NNE. Another 3-5” of rain on many models.

 

Maybe ill Be able to see the loon bridge get washed away again?

Not just NNE. BOX referenced "washout" potential for SNE early next week. Really looking forward to being hunkered down in an Airbnb on the Cape with my whole family + in-laws and their obnoxious untrained dog. And I'm not into board games or cards. Fortunately I don't mind fishing in the rain....

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Not just NNE. BOX referenced "washout" potential for SNE early next week. Really looking forward to being hunkered down in an Airbnb on the Cape with my whole family + in-laws and their obnoxious untrained dog. And I'm not into board games or cards. Fortunately I don't mind fishing in the rain....

Get drunk and surly they'll leave you alone. Works for me.

[weatherwiz]

There is going to be some flash flooding and significant flash flooding potential Saturday into Monday. It's tough to discern right now where the corridor of the heavier rain axis sets-up, right now this looks to favor western sections but there could be some significant rain totals in this time frame, especially if this becomes a scenario with upslope enhancement which seems plausible. 

Note: There may be quite the gradient in rainfall totals within the region during this timeframe, unless the axis happens to center on the region as a whole. 

There may also be two axes of heavier rainfall, always have to watch the southeast coast if you get any LLJ support in play.

[Torch Tiger]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

False 

fyi-

those include vehicular crashes?  66 deaths? Doubt it

*edit* for 2022 if you add winter and cold, it's 97, which is more than 91.  Case closed really.

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is going to be some flash flooding and significant flash flooding potential Saturday into Monday. It's tough to discern right now where the corridor of the heavier rain axis sets-up, right now this looks to favor western sections but there could be some significant rain totals in this time frame, especially if this becomes a scenario with upslope enhancement which seems plausible. 

Note: There may be quite the gradient in rainfall totals within the region during this timeframe, unless the axis happens to center on the region as a whole. 

There may also be two axes of heavier rainfall, always have to watch the southeast coast if you get any LLJ support in play.

Sounds good!  We'll be watching closely

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

those include vehicular crashes?  66 deaths? Doubt it

That does seem super low. Wasn't the death toll from the BUF LES higher then that? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

those include vehicular crashes?  66 deaths? Doubt it

I think we talked about that graph not too long ago and we agreed it had some issues

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Not just NNE. BOX referenced "washout" potential for SNE early next week. Really looking forward to being hunkered down in an Airbnb on the Cape with my whole family + in-laws and their obnoxious untrained dog. And I'm not into board games or cards. Fortunately I don't mind fishing in the rain....

Yeah. This doesn’t really bode well for the local tourism boards.  Movie theaters will enjoy it though 

“Increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms Friday, and especially by Sunday, mainly across the interior. The risk for showers and thunderstorms continues into Wednesday. Kept the forecast rainfall chances rather broad still, owing to a lack of confidence in the timing details. Not looking at any single day which is a total washout. There should be many rain-free hours, with the greatest rainfall chances in the afternoon and evening.

 

Humidity should remain high through this portion of the forecast, which will set a higher floor for temperatures that what is typical for early July. High temperatures expected to be near to slightly above normal.”

 

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think we talked about that graph not too long ago and we agreed it had some issues

Yeah, I do remember talking about it. 

[WhiteLawns]

@CT Rain nvm it won’t let me message you on fb so here it is.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xztwmki5ejihve5/4thlightningfornews.jpg?dl=0

[Brewbeer]

91/71.  both ACs running.

[BrianW]

[Torch Tiger]

91.6 at home.  Gorgeous

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch!

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!

This is legit.

90/66 up here.

[dendrite]

Made it up to 86°. Nice day that finally feels like deep summer. I feel alive.

[Saguaro]

Ultra rare heat advisory issued for this area tomorrow. Today has been brilliant, lots of sun and we were finally able to get above that elusive 80 degree point. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s if IZG is accurate.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Dewing it well 

Humidity should remain high through this portion of the forecast,
which will set a higher floor for temperatures that what is typical
for early July.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. This doesn’t really bode well for the local tourism boards.  Movie theaters will enjoy it though 

“Increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms Friday, and especially by Sunday, mainly across the interior. The risk for showers and thunderstorms continues into Wednesday. Kept the forecast rainfall chances rather broad still, owing to a lack of confidence in the timing details. Not looking at any single day which is a total washout. There should be many rain-free hours, with the greatest rainfall chances in the afternoon and evening.

 

Humidity should remain high through this portion of the forecast, which will set a higher floor for temperatures that what is typical for early July. High temperatures expected to be near to slightly above normal.”

 

Looks like a PA/NY State thing. Maybe it spills into NNE? But then it sort of looks progressive as it moves across SNE. Can't rule out sct stuff Saturday and Sunday.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

those include vehicular crashes?  66 deaths? Doubt it

*edit* for 2022 if you add winter and cold, it's 97, which is more than 91.  Case closed really.

Son... what the f* are you talking about.

Your statement from before was flat wrong.  

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Son... what the f* are you talking about.

Your statement from before was flat wrong.  

97 is greater than 91, I know it might be difficult for you

[OceanStWx]

Day 5 slight risk, don't see that too often.

Sorry Wiz, that's for rain not storms.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

97 is greater than 91, I know it might be difficult for you

"No idea who you are but I hope you don't cheer on winter storms/ ice / etc.  Because those injure and unfortunately kill more than these floods. "

That is what I responded to. By providing the hard statistics in a bar graph, that was to inform that 'winter storms/ ice / etc' do not 'kill more than these floods'

Not sure why you're typing 9's and 7's and 1' but okay -

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Day 5 slight risk, don't see that too often.

Sorry Wiz, that's for rain not storms.

Is there some particular technique or just tech that's behind that assessment - other than synoptic experience? 

I realize there's an odd-ball anomalous buzz saw setting up N of Lake Superior and the non-hydrostats align parallel flow, so yeah...training can be inferred and so forth. But there aren't enough fingers to count on two hands over the course of a weather year how many times I see a parallel flow - why is this D5 so ominous? 

lol, it's liable to be right just because I'm asking but still

[Typhoon Tip]

actually

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Is there some particular technique or just tech that's behind that assessment - other than synoptic experience? 

I realize there's an odd-ball anomalous buzz saw setting up N of Lake Superior and the non-hydrostats align parallel flow, so yeah...training can be inferred and so forth. But I couldn't count on one hand over the course of a weather year how many times I see a parallel flow - why is this D5 so ominous? 

lol, it's liable to be right just because I'm asking but still

Honestly don't know the specifics of how they craft those forecasts, but generally using a probabilistic approach with models/ensembles. I would hazard a guess that some comparison of QPF to flash flood guidance is used to determine areas most prone to potential flash flooding.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Honestly don't know the specifics of how they craft those forecasts, but generally using a probabilistic approach with models/ensembles. I would hazard a guess that some comparison of QPF to flash flood guidance is used to determine areas most prone to potential flash flooding.

I think it's circumstantial the more I look at this.     I mean what you're saying yeah, but we also have really no way to evac the present theta-e mass over OV to NE region that's stagnating.  I'm looking at the 582 non-hydrostat and it really fails to convincingly move E-S, despite the trough so it's not really a typical synopsis.  It's a deep (ish) anomaly pressing into a theta-e anomaly, with cyclonic curve flow that has mid level speed shear.

I'm starting to come around

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!

Meh, Short-lived, run of the mill summer warmth.