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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just shy of 0.50” very quick this morning, with possibly a little more to come.  Very efficient rainers for feeding the mushrooms.

And enough for me to ditch the 7:30 tee time. Glad I mowed the lawn yesterday. Looks like the chances will be few and far between over the next week. 

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38 minutes ago, mreaves said:

And enough for me to ditch the 7:30 tee time. Glad I mowed the lawn yesterday. Looks like the chances will be few and far between over the next week. 

Up to 0.73” when I emptied the Stratus.

Driving through town seeing the families out looking for breakfast all decked out in rain gear and shorts with umbrellas… holiday weekend vibe with shit weather :lol:.

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14 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Worcester’s June temps can be tossed thanks to the garbage sensor 

Yeah... who knows - specific perceived and/or legit errors with instrumentation, notwithstanding. right -

Still, the degree/scale of actual negative anomalies was [likely ] not as deep as perceived. Personally?  I find it interesting that it was negative at all, when the baseline [argumentative or not -] appears to lean positive as a result of CC.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... who knows - specific perceived and/or legit errors with instrumentation, notwithstanding. right -

Still, the degree/scale of actual negative anomalies was [likely ] not as deep as perceived. Personally?  I find it interesting that it was negative at all, when the baseline [argumentative or not -] appears to lean positive as a result of CC.

The first 2 days of the month were also 93-95. Helped pull up the negatives a little.

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Might actually get some drier weather in here than it looked earlier.

Euro flipped from very wet for multiple days to much better outdoor weather up north between the 6z and 18z runs.

Favorable shift south.

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Frankly I'd advise usage of the operational model version with an extra degree of incredulity ...

They are yawing dramatically between extremes in temperature.  The GFS ( for ex.) has been flipping the upper MW/GL region between 72 with easterlies over a stalled warm front, with occasional rains/convection, vs 104 .. about every 3rd or 4th run.  Back and forth... hugely massive diametric swings that make any kind of deterministic reliance non-existent. 

What is causing the giant gradient in the model(s) ... N vs S side of the ambient summer front is both as intriguing as it is suspect. It's probably that the model(s) are too happy to genesis cloud and rain interference on heating potential - I wonder if the ever growing WV density in an ever warming world, is beginning to show up in the guidance as extremes ... It's not a bad hypothesis if you ask me ( which no one did ..just sayn' ha!) because the 'climate impact models' have been honking big extremes as a consequence of CC - maybe it's just a operational forecasting manifestation.  

So at the end of the weeks and months ...the averages only show decimal bumps of increase over the long haul, yet we get 3-6 inch rain bombs right next to borderline drought this and that... Or, we get 76 at ORD and 108 at Springfield Ill.   No problem... "totally normal"  (now?)

Anyway, if the summer version of the polar jet ends up moving across the U.P. of Michigan instead of Indianapolis, may mean absurdly large differences between a lower temperature futures, vs more lower wrung auxiliary housing morbidity heat.

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

The first 2 days of the month were also 93-95. Helped pull up the negatives a little.

I don't know what difference that makes. 

If one wants to consider 'distribution behavior' the last 8 or so days of the month were all modestly above normal..  between +1 and +3 at ALB/HFD/ORH. 

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3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

HRRR is just rain all day. One convective burst after another. Just love to see it. 

I don't mind... if the day's gonna be blown, make it worth it.  

Frankly was puzzled to see negative rain anomalies for June considering it seemed to be raining or within ear-shot of thunder for like 15 straight days but it is what is.  I just wouldn't mind putting July out of reach with a ton of pan-dimensional thumping.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't mind... if the  days Summer's gonna be blown, make it worth it.  

Frankly was puzzled to see negative rain anomalies for June considering it seemed to be raining or within ear-shot of thunder for like 15 straight days but it is what is.  I just wouldn't mind putting July out of reach with a ton of pan-dimensional thumping.

Fixed it. If the summer is never going to happen. Might as well make it the whole thing. Bet we have a toasty and dry fall.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A bit over  6” of rain in June here.  July is off to a smashing start. Lol. 

Yeah ... you know, I'm wondering if this one of those deals where Gaia was hiding a wet month by deliberately only raining where ever the nimrod technology placement can lie the most about reality. LOL

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