powderfreak Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Warm evening/night… only the Mtn valleys are dropping below 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Low of 74 here! Last deep summer run before we break for a few short days and it returns into the Thursday - Saturday period. Def not looking forward to the short break , but it had to happen at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Low of 74 here! Last deep summer run before we break for a few short days and it returns into the Thursday - Saturday period. Def not looking forward to the short break , but it had to happen at some point. I wouldn't even call it a break. It looks like we're right back in the frying pan by the end of the week. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: I wouldn't even call it a break. It looks like we're right back in the frying pan by the end of the week. Don't use charts and graphics. Go with pattern recognition. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, kdxken said: I wouldn't even call it a break. It looks like we're right back in the frying pan by the end of the week. You do realize it showed that much of July right?Just because they paint your favorite pretty blue doesn’t mean cold and dry . It’s not a hot pattern, but you’re going to get increased dews again with Warmer nights and storms/ clouds keep days slightly BN to normal. Especially after about Aug 8th. There will be another fropa next Fri / Sat and it’ll mild down again. It’s after that one that the dews and warmth/ storms return like we’ve seen them the last 6 weeks. Until then it’s up and down . Like your golf game 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 71/71 this am, almost FL like. Looking forward to cooler temps and dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 "Did lower temps Tue night into Wed toward the 20th percentile of guidance as am anticipating strong radiational cooling. Will feel much cooler with lows generally in the 50s, but there will be a few spots across NW MA that are in the upper 40s! High temps on Wed will generally be in the 70s." All these forecasts of 30s and flurries lol. it's barely going to be in the '40s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Very warm and humid up here with early morning sun. I think SPC area of potential heavy storms should have been bumped north. We have missed the severe action up here lately but things seemed primed this AM. Model qpf seem to be trending more bullish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Very warm and humid up here with early morning sun. I think SPC area of potential heavy storms should have been bumped north. We have missed the severe action up here lately but things seemed primed this AM. Model qpf seem to be trending more bullish. Still fairly cloudy down here in CT, maybe you do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 What time does SPC update it's convective outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 80/75 going to cut the grass at the shop, may need a sickle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 heartbreaking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 look at that ridge coming west. like it belongs there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: heartbreaking 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: look at that ridge coming west. like it belongs there I guess we are going back in the heater after August 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I guess we are going back in the heater after August 10th. mm yeah, but we've escaped the solar max by then. The atmosphere seemed ironically preprogrammed to make sure the sun was history before hinting that pattern, one that in June or July would give us a chance to experience the kind of heat that has occurred elsewhere in the world. Ha. Anyway, it'd get hot, but that's setting up during that 'what could have been,' post Aug 10 celestial timing (after the solar max). When the hemisphere attempts to cook up heat waves after Aug 10, it's always falling short of what it could be prior to that ~ date. I've seen it be 96 on Sept 7 before ... but the same pattern on July 1 would be 106... So I guess I'm being idealistic wrt timing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I guess we are going back in the heater after August 10th. Doesn’t look that impressive thou . Looks warm n muggy but we got a nice week break and ya I know it’s an ensemble at days 12-15. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You do realize it showed that much of July right? Sure did. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Doesn’t look that impressive thou . Looks warm n muggy but we got a nice week break and ya I know it’s an ensemble at days 12-15. From a tropical perspective, I like to see that retrograding trough. If this season is going to be anywhere near average the basin needs a quieter period to cut down shear and allow these waves to develop. It looks like that starts happening after the 5th (not including the central Atlantic wave currently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: look at that ridge coming west. like it belongs there WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: From a tropical perspective, I like to see that retrograding trough. If this season is going to be anywhere near average the basin needs a quieter period to cut down shear and allow these waves to develop. It looks like that starts happening after the 5th (not including the central Atlantic wave currently). Has the NHC or anyone ever forecast a Substantially below normal season of activity . when the NHC calls for an average season i assume there is a substantially better than normal chance it will be below normal . It’s almost always safer over forecasting than under forecasting and much more forgivable should you miss . I definitely understand it’s extremely early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 32 minutes ago, weathafella said: WTTTE We did . They charted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We did . They charted Maybe you will actually get above 85° in that one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe you will actually get above 85° in that one? This summer is not about heat That was never my contention. This is and will continue to be thru September a summer of storms and dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 13 hours ago, powderfreak said: Warm evening/night… only the Mtn valleys are dropping below 70F. First Autumn cold frontal type of the season's been a recurring feature in recent GFS runs for later next week... I find it fascinating and hugely predictable ( both ... but don't get me started !) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has the NHC or anyone ever forecast a Substantially below normal season of activity . when the NHC calls for an average season i assume there is a substantially better than normal chance it will be below normal . It’s almost always safer over forecasting than under forecasting and much more forgivable should you miss . I definitely understand it’s extremely early in the season. I’m sure they have in the last decade. Some of the seasons pre 2017 were fairly mundane, but we’ve been in an active cycle overall since about 1995. The tear we’ve had 2017 on is legit exceptional. There are reasons to believe this season is at or above average aside from SSTs. I lean the other way but I don’t think their forecast is a hedge. They’ve probably been under forecast the last few years but again an historic run. Also, we’re ahead in NS and ACE so far, but will probably fall behind in ACE unless the central Atlantic produces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m sure they have in the last decade. Some of the seasons pre 2017 were fairly mundane, but we’ve been in an active cycle overall since about 1995. The tear we’ve had 2017 on is legit exceptional. There are reasons to believe this season is at or above average aside from SSTs. I lean the other way but I don’t think their forecast is a hedge. They’ve probably been under forecast the last few years but again an historic run. Also, we’re ahead in NS and ACE so far, but will probably fall behind in ACE unless the central Atlantic produces. Has it been a tear since 2017 in Ace, they seem to name anything that spins lately but I like measuring activity by Ace a good bit more than total storms named . I don’t have the stats for ACE but I will find them and you may be right that it’s been super active . I know we have had many monsters the last 5 years , heck I flew to Florida for Dorian but he never came on shore (thankfully ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Wach those SSTs collapse with cold fonts of yore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 A couple of hours ago we had a heavy shower. .28" now the sun is out. With so much moisture around my dew is up to 75F. A rarity 80.1/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has it been a tear since 2017 in Ace, they seem to name anything that spins lately but I like measuring activity by Ace a good bit more than total storms named . I don’t have the stats for ACE but I will find them and you may be right that it’s been super active . I know we have had many monsters the last 5 years , heck I flew to Florida for Dorian but he never came on shore (thankfully ) http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic That’s a great link 2016-2021 was higher than normal for Ace . I had to look up 2005 as well , that season was nonstop insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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