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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


Typhoon Tip
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  On 7/28/2023 at 2:08 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

For what had been hyped as a 3 day heat wave, many won’t even hit 90 once

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This might be the first "historic" heatwave where I do not even hit 90 degrees. Just a few days ago I had a forecasted high of 92, 99, and 95. Yesterday was 89, forecast for today is 89 again, and tomorrow 87. Sunday through at least Wednesday looks like a late September pattern and that could extend. 

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Impressive heat this month. Even ORH is in 6th place, with the opportunity to move up even more over the next couple of days. Due to the airport site being about 500' above the city of Worcester (a cooling effect of 1.5-2.5F), it is very difficult to set new warm monthly temperature records there particularly in the summertime when there is less internal variability.

image.png.df9d91541859e1892fe95ea4fb31d758.png

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  On 7/28/2023 at 1:52 PM, dendrite said:

No. Keep the science honest. We don’t need sensationalism. It hurts the cause. 

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I wouldn't even mind the chain yanking if that bold were not the issue.   I don't have a problem with entertainment, shit.

But, people think yesterday is a headline heat, then when it really does strike ...they don't have a fair predisposition and obviously -

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  On 7/28/2023 at 3:21 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Impressive heat this month. Even ORH is in 6th place, with the opportunity to move up even more over the next couple of days. Due to the airport site being about 500' above the city of Worcester (a cooling effect of 1.5-2.5F), it is very difficult to set new warm monthly temperature records there particularly in the summertime when there is less internal variability.

image.png.df9d91541859e1892fe95ea4fb31d758.png

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The old site used to radiate somewhat. The new site doesn’t at all. So there’s some give and take there when it comes down to the means.

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It's one of those circumstances whence most home stations are 2-3 F above the NWS utlra precision calibrated perfect setting sites... which leads me at times to question the distinction ( necessity?) between defining the temperature at those, versus over people's driveways or walking down urban streets or over parking lots and shit ... you know, life?  

Granted, these home sites are not "officially" mandated, but, having personally suffered the vicissitudes of North American 40N climate as many decades as I have, I have a pretty good existentially -based handle on what a hot day feels like. These home sites currently fit that better than the present reading of 84/66 KFIT.  Oh, they're 87.8/66 so better

89/71 here

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  On 7/28/2023 at 3:21 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Impressive heat this month. Even ORH is in 6th place, with the opportunity to move up even more over the next couple of days. Due to the airport site being about 500' above the city of Worcester (a cooling effect of 1.5-2.5F), it is very difficult to set new warm monthly temperature records there particularly in the summertime when there is less internal variability.

image.png.df9d91541859e1892fe95ea4fb31d758.png

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Do you realize that sensor has been off by 1.5 to 2 degrees since last winter . Easier to set warm records when a sensor is reporting 33 frzr in winter and isn’t recalibrated 

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  On 7/28/2023 at 4:33 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It's one of those circumstances whence most home stations are 2-3 F above the NWS utlra precision calibrated perfect setting sites... which leads me at times to question the distinction ( necessity?) between defining the temperature at those, versus over people's driveways or walking down urban streets or over parking lots and shit ... you know, life?  

Granted, these home sites are not "officially" mandated, but, having personally suffered the vicissitudes of North American 40N climate as many decades as I have, I have a pretty good existentially -based handle on what a hot day feels like. These home sites currently fit that better than the present reading of 84/66 KFIT.  Oh, they're 87.8/66 so better

89/71 here

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Do you have fan aspiration? I think the differences come down to that. I almost always read lower than the surrounding airport sites, but I have a 9v fan. Those that are passive tend to get the extra few degrees this time of year. The home sensors really aren’t much of a dropoff in accuracy from ASOS anymore. It comes down more to siting and shielding. The Davis Sensirion sensors are only about 0.1-0.2C error now in lab settings.

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  On 7/28/2023 at 4:52 PM, dendrite said:

I said it would be higher than 89-91 on the euro image you posted. I believe you just posted a static 18z valid map. My point was the actual highs would be 93-95 by using that modelology. 

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Yes that is what I did . I thought you meant that what I posted didn’t accurately portray the correct 18z temps . The 21z were also 89-91

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  On 7/28/2023 at 4:06 PM, dendrite said:

The old site used to radiate somewhat. The new site doesn’t at all. So there’s some give and take there when it comes down to the means.

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Yes, you are correct. I took a look at the period of overlap between ORH and the city station (1948-1962). The city station did average about a degree more in the annual means; however, there was a distinct seasonality to the temperature differences.

It was about 1.5-2 degrees warmer in January, but the differences were very small in July (with the city being generally less than 0.5 of a degree warmer). I believe the difference is because radiational cooling has an oversized impact in the warm season. Winter is cloudy and windy, so radiational cooling effects are minimized. The lower elevation city site in the valley radiates better than the surrounding hills, even despite the development around the site. This difference largely offset the elevational cooling in the summertime, but not in winter.

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  On 7/28/2023 at 4:50 PM, dendrite said:

Do you have fan aspiration? I think the differences come down to that. I almost always read lower than the surrounding airport sites, but I have a 9v fan. Those that are passive tend to get the extra few degrees this time of year. The home sensors really aren’t much of a dropoff in accuracy from ASOS anymore. It comes down more to siting and shielding. The Davis Sensirion sensors are only about 0.1-0.2C error now in lab settings.

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yeah, jokes aside that's good point there. 

I'm noticing there's almost no wind today.  So that 'one of those days whence' may come down to a ventilation aspect.  sure.

 

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