weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’ve read it has been like that at several sensors I will see if I can find it It's like the Day After Tomorrow in reverse. Instead of all the sensors tanking everything is rising. Instead of water freezing it may boil away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Meh...that station came online Nov 2019. It has routinely hit 95-97F in June/July since then. I remember water temps offshore around Fort Myers Beach being frequently 92-93F when I was down there in 2007. It was 93F yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 How/why is it getting that hot? Seems kind of alarming at first glance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: How/why is it getting that hot? Seems kind of alarming at first glance? Seems to be really shallow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems to be really shallow. Some would like you to believe its because of other means. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some would like you to believe its because of other means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 GFS is great for Sunday... not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I will not. 3k gone wild tomorrow night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 3k gone wild tomorrow night I'm never sure what to make of the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm never sure what to make of the 3km NAM. Its easy, Toss. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its easy, Toss. I should try to read up and see if there are any studies on how well it actually handles convection. But even in other parts of the country during bigger severe setups it always seems lackluster compared to other model guidance but I kind of feel like it actually does a pretty decent job whereas if you're seeing the 3km NAM going wild with convection...it's a good indicator it will be a big day (and this thinking isn't applied necessarily to our area but across the country). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: Meh...that station came online Nov 2019. It has routinely hit 95-97F in June/July since then. I remember water temps offshore around Fort Myers Beach being frequently 92-93F when I was down there in 2007. It was 93F yesterday. Threw the data into excel. Here's 6/21-7/14 in 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 So many of those stations in the Keys came online in the winter of 2019-2020. So there's only a few years of summer data with them to begin with. So all of these low 90s readings may be typical. CNN is such a hype machine. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: So many of those stations in the Keys came online in the winter of 2019-2020. So there's only a few years of summer data with them to begin with. So all of these low 90s readings may be typical. CNN is such a hype machine. I would agree having been in those waters 3 July’s in the last 8 years; gets quite warm. This pic from a visit to Alligator Light off Islamorada 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: So many of those stations in the Keys came online in the winter of 2019-2020. So there's only a few years of summer data with them to begin with. So all of these low 90s readings may be typical. CNN is such a hype machine. If they are sticking these sensors in a shallow lagoon with the sand not far below them, those water temps are going to be pretty normal in the summer. It only takes one idiot over at a news stations to equate these readings with more offshore buoys to fire up the hype machine. It’s like using Maple Hollow in the winter to talk about how cold it got in CT one morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Looking over the bathymetric data for that area, it's crazy shallow so large diurnal swings with high maxima don't seem too crazy to me. Like Dendrite pointed out, we only have recorded data for about 4 years so who knows if its common or uncommon. Unfortunately the NDBC owned stations don't have temperature sensors which is a bummer since they would likely have datasets stretching much further back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If they are sticking these sensors in a shallow lagoon with the sand not far below them, those water temps are going to be pretty normal in the summer. It only takes one idiot over at a news stations to equate these readings with more offshore buoys to fire up the hype machine. It’s like using Maple Hollow in the winter to talk about how cold it got in CT one morning. What about using ORH in the winter to see how much ice accreted on a hill in NE CT? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If they are sticking these sensors in a shallow lagoon with the sand not far below them, those water temps are going to be pretty normal in the summer. It only takes one idiot over at a news stations to equate these readings with more offshore buoys to fire up the hype machine. It’s like using Maple Hollow in the winter to talk about how cold it got in CT one morning. They probably mounted the temp probe an inch below the water surface like my dad's pool too so that the sun can beat on it. Then when we would bitch about it being cold he could say it's 85F. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If they are sticking these sensors in a shallow lagoon with the sand not far below them, those water temps are going to be pretty normal in the summer. It only takes one idiot over at a news stations to equate these readings with more offshore buoys to fire up the hype machine. It’s like using Maple Hollow in the winter to talk about how cold it got in CT one morning. Where i was going with this without going there with it.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What about using ORH in the winter to see how much ice accreted on a hill in NE CT? Or using the water treatment plant on deer island to measure BOS snowfall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Or using the water treatment plant on deer island to measure BOS snowfall. Every now and then when I'm on the X-way...I look over at that and shake my head. What a disaster for like 2 seasons there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 It looks like SW FL and the keys have been warm, but also dry. So more sun may be part of the issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Those stations may be * worthy, but without question the scale and depth of Atlantic basin warmth has been exceptional. (Not saying anyone is arguing otherwise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Those stations may be * worthy, but without question the scale and depth of Atlantic basin warmth has been exceptional. (Not saying anyone is arguing otherwise) The waters are warm for sure. But I guess when you look at the data Dendrite showed...this doesn't seem like a sudden occurrence. Especially if it's dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Threw the data into excel. Here's 6/21-7/14 in 2020 Thanks Brian. Looks similar to what is happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 there is diurnal variation in the Connecticut River too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Brewbeer said: there is diurnal variation in the Connecticut River too: There will be diurnal variation on anything that gets sunlight. The question is the magnitude. The FL Keys sensors were near 7F (over 3C) variation. Ct River is much more modest variation of ~1C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Flood watch issued for most of Vermont for tomorrow into Friday: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BTV&wwa=flood watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Burlington VT 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ003-004-006>011-016>021-130845- /O.NEW.KBTV.FA.A.0003.230713T1800Z-230714T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Eastern Clinton-Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison- Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Champlain, Plattsburgh, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield, and White River Junction 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...In Vermont... Most of central and northern Vermont except Grand Isle, Western Chittenden, and Western Franklin Counties. In New York... Essex and Clinton Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flash flooding, especially along river and streams and in low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon as a line of strong thunderstorms moves through. Rivers and streams are already running high and any additional rainfall will go straight to run-off in areas that have recently flooded. Additional forecast rainfall amounts for Thursday afternoon are 1 to 1.5 inches, locally up to 2 inches in the heaviest storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 There's the marginal risk tomorrow with slight risk for upstate NY!!!!!! Wouldn't be surprised to see enhanced there in future outlooks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be diurnal variation on anything that gets sunlight. The question is the magnitude. The FL Keys sensors were near 7F (over 3C) variation. Ct River is much more modest variation of ~1C. Agree, just posting that diurnal variations of water temps are real. I would expect the river to have lower daily variation since it is probably better mixed from being a flowing body of water, and since there are trees lining the river, it doesn't get as much sun as the ocean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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