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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't pay as close attention to the temp idiosyncrasies wrt the NWS sites as you folk but it seems to me just over the years in general, that site has difficulty getting to 90 anyway.  I mean not impossible, just that the 1000k/sigma elevation takes the 50 mb slope off the bottom of the sounding.  I bet down town by the convention center it's over 90 

Yeah they only average about 2-3 90F per year. Some years they fail to hit it (last occurrence in 2014....though 2015 almost pulled it off too until a September 90-burger)

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't pay as close attention to the temp idiosyncrasies wrt the NWS sites as you folk but it seems to me just over the years in general, that site has difficulty getting to 90 anyway.  I mean not impossible, just that the 1000k/sigma elevation takes the 50 mb slope off the bottom of the sounding.  I bet down town by the convention center it's over 90 

Yeah I love ORH too for displaying what being on a hilltop vs valley at the same elevation means. Up this way you can hit 90F to 1500ft a few times because it’s low terrain relatively.  1000ft around here vs 1000 at ORH is definitely completely different climo.  Radiate and torch, vs the hilltop version of the same elevation.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boston Light's up to 70 F ...  S.C. buoys also near +- 70 F SST.  That's a fast recovery in the past 2 weeks, right ?  I could have swore we were held up in the low 60s

There is a diurnal cycle I've noticed especially with BOS light, but yeah real quick. Was in low 60s I think last week. 

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boston Light's up to 70 F ...  S.C. buoys also near +- 70 F SST.  That's a fast recovery in the past 2 weeks, right ?  I could have swore we were held up in the low 60s

Although north of P-Town water is 64F and the buoys well SE of ACK are in the 60s.  

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like a prolonged stretch of extreme heat across the Southwest and interior California coming up

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_fh168-384.gif

I wouldn't trust the spatial layout so much ...

Have to keep in mind ... especially beyond D7's ...the noise of 31 members or more tends to artifact that flow into a perennial layout, which features a modest ridge in the west and a flattish trough in the east - as a basal state.  Throw in July's thermal component and that "tugs" ( for lack of better word) the member-mean too far west. 

But, by the time the D10 to 13 is say, D5 and we still end up with occasional ridge nodes neat St Louis, as well as sometimes WAR's for a reason.  The noise masks the individual members that would have been right about heat expulsion east -

cast in point, this 12z operational "member" at 300 hours ...bullshit by virtue of range, but it's definitely decoupled from the GEFs mean noise

gfs_z500_vort_us_52.png

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43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I love ORH too for displaying what being on a hilltop vs valley at the same elevation means. Up this way you can hit 90F to 1500ft a few times because it’s low terrain relatively.  1000ft around here vs 1000 at ORH is definitely completely different climo.  Radiate and torch, vs the hilltop version of the same elevation.

That's one reason I'm annoyed they haven't fixed the sensor there yet...it's always a great proxy to use for the type of airmass we are in. Like when ORH hits 90F, it's a pretty legit hot airmass....when they start going 93-94F, it's a "high end" heat wave.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn't trust the spatial layout so much ...

Have to keep in mind ... especially beyond D7's ...the noise of 31 members or more tends to artifact that flow into a perennial layout, which features a modest ridge in the west and a flattish trough in the east - as a basal state.  Throw in July's thermal component and that "tugs" ( for lack of better word) the member-mean too far west. 

But we take the D10 to 13 range and we still end up with ridge nodes neat St Louis, as well as sometimes WAR's for a reason.  The noise masks the individual members that would have been right about heat expulsion east -

cast in point, this 12z operational "member"

gfs_z500_vort_us_52.png

Well this goes perfectly with my previous post with the lapse rates but this is one synoptic look that makes your mouth water in terms of severe potential. Too bad its so far out there. but if you ever wanted to show someone what a favorable synoptic pattern looks like for some bigger severe here...this would be it. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I have tickets to go up to Story Land on Monday.  I bought them a month ago, along with a non-refundable hotel room - so naturally the weather looks like puke up there. 

Ugh...that's the worst. We take our kids every year but keep flexible....usually pick the nicest weekday during out of our vacation in adjacent western Maine to drive over and spend the day.

Although maybe you can luck out where the rain is delayed a bit or more spotty....we had a day like that one year and the threat of scared off all the crowds, and we basically had the park with no lines or very short lines. It was great.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Well this goes perfectly with my previous post with the lapse rates but this is one synoptic look that makes your mouth water in terms of severe potential. Too bad its so far out there. but if you ever wanted to show someone what a favorable synoptic pattern looks like for some bigger severe here...this would be it. 

I have to learn how to forecast lapse rates. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What are you looking to know/understand? 

For the purposes of today at least (I’m in the Denver area) if there’s a way to determine the threshold llvl lapse rate to overcome a cap for the explosive convective initiation. :weenie: 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the purposes of today at least (I’m in the Denver area) if there’s a way to determine the threshold llvl lapse rate to overcome a cap for the explosive convective initiation. :weenie: 

:lol:

Looks like the convective temperature was around 80 or so. If the convective temp can be reached, there should be some explosive supercells around that area. Wouldn't be much to prevent parcels from reaching the LFC (though it does seem on the higher side...but I'm also not entirely familiar with convection in the Inter-mountain West). 

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