July 2023

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s why dense rank sorting for temperature records gives a much better perspective.

https://www.voltactivedata.com/blog/2016/12/rank-dense-rank/

1. What if there are 5 contestants whose score is 100? How will we decide among them? One plausible way, in the absence of other deciding factors, would be to list all 5 as number one, awarding 5 first place prizes.
2. If the first two scores are both 100, and the next is 99 is the contestant with score 99 the second or the third? In a baseball league the contestant with 99 would be third. In a contest where we care about scores more than contestants who achieve the scores, the 99 would be the second score. This might happen if we were looking at high temperatures in cities, and we care about the temperature numbers more than the cities that attained them. For shorthand in this note, call the first ranking the baseball ranking, and the second the temperature ranking

The NWS is New York uses dense rank sorting for top 10 temperature records. So there can be more than 10 years attaining a top 10 for warmest or coldest. But they haven’t updated for the numerous top 10 warmest months since they last updated in 2021.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data. The important takeaway in climate ranking isn't how many times an specific, unique value has been achieved, it's how a given year compares to prior years. If there were seven warmer years, then the next highest should be in 8th - regardless of whether there were only 5 unique values higher.

But anyways, the implication from the original response that led to this thread isn't correct either. Rankings that are tied are denoted with an asterisk on the map. If there are three years in fifth place, then it will show 5* for the ranking. The next highest on those SERCC maps would be 8th place, as they use traditional ranking. It's not really that important, however, as there typically aren't that many ties as you get into the extreme values in the dataset. There's generally more extremes/outliers at the tails. Obviously, occasionally there will be 2 or 3 years tied. But it's much more frequent to have many years with the same value near the means and median of the dataset. Sometimes in the longer datasets, there might be 5 or 6 tied years near the middle. Not really relevant when talking about top 5 values. Even though, it's common to say normal isn't relevant and it's always either hot or cold. That isn't actually true. The reality is the highest percentage of years are typically around the mean/median (even though that's less true today in a warming climate).

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data. The important takeaway in climate ranking isn't how many times an specific, unique value has been achieved, it's how a given year compares to prior years. If there were seven warmer years, then the next highest should be in 8th - regardless of whether there were only 5 unique values higher.

But anyways, the implication from the original response that led to this thread isn't correct either. Rankings that are tied are denoted with an asterisk on the map. If there are three years in fifth place, then it will show 5* for the ranking. The next highest on those SERCC maps would be 8th place, as they use traditional ranking. It's not really that important, however, as there typically aren't that many ties as you get into the extreme values in the dataset. There's generally more extremes/outliers at the tails. Obviously, occasionally there will be 2 or 3 years tied. But it's much more frequent to have many years with the same value near the means and median of the dataset. Sometimes in the longer datasets, there might be 5 or 6 tied years near the middle. Not really relevant when talking about top 5 values. Even though, it's common to say normal isn't relevant and it's always either hot or cold. That isn't actually true. The reality is the highest percentage of years are typically around the mean/median (even though that's less true today in a warming climate).

Yes, please get rid of "averages" etc, I would much rather see a range of normal values within 1 SD be used for that rather than a single number.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data.

Not sure why you say that. It gives you the 10 highest temperatures for the month which is all that we really are concerned with in compiling a temperature record for a given location.  The first table below is ranked by year. The 2nd table is dense rank and shows the 10 highest temperatures and the months.

Rank for ten warmest years

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
-	2010	77.0	0
4	2020	76.9	0
5	2022	76.8	0
-	2019	76.8	0
7	1966	76.7	0
-	1955	76.7	2
9	2011	76.6	1
10	2023	76.4	2
-	2012	76.4	0

Dense Rank 10 warmest temperatures 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
2	2010	77.0	0
3	2020	76.9	0
4	2022	76.8	0
4	2019	76.8	0
5	1966	76.7	0
5	1955	76.7	2
6	2011	76.6	1
7	2023	76.4	2
7	2012	76.4	0
8	2016	76.3	0
8	1983	76.3	1
9	1952	76.2	0
9	1949	76.2	0
10	1995	76.0	6

 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 80 now more clouds and 78 /55.  Great day.  

 

  

 

 

[lee59]

Looks like Central Park will end up at 79 for July average. Today being 85-66.  This actually gives the Park a July temperature of 79.048, so I assume they round it off to 79.

[lee59]

My low this morning was 59.9

[doncat]

July here will finish tied for 7th warmest in 46 years....Rainfall was 6.69".

[bluewave]

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region.

 

Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	18.12	3
2	1897	13.05	0
3	2016	11.02	0
4	1945	10.21	0
5	1960	9.64	0
6	2018	9.27	0
7	1996	9.00	0
8	1984	8.65	0
9	1975	7.91	0
10	1994	7.72	0
-	1938	7.72	0

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region.

 

Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	18.12	3
2	1897	13.05	0
3	2016	11.02	0
4	1945	10.21	0
5	1960	9.64	0
6	2018	9.27	0
7	1996	9.00	0
8	1984	8.65	0
9	1975	7.91	0
10	1994	7.72	0
-	1938	7.72	0

West Point got twice as much in July as I got in May, June and July combined.

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, New York City saw the temperature top out at 85°. As a result, July finished with a mean temperature of 79.1°, which was 1.6° above normal.

Fair and pleasant days coupled with low humidity will continue through at least midweek. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat will likely rebuild later in the week in the U.S. Southwest.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +5.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.060 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.472 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.303 (RMM).

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

7/31

 

EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
NYC: 85
PHL: 85
BLM: 83
JFK: 83
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
ACY: 82

[WestBabylonWeather]

Where did summer go?! Not liking this. Going to the Catskills Saturday. A high of 73?! September vibes.


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