July 2023

[Intensewind002]

75/50 feels great outside

[Nibor]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this weather is dreadful. thankfully it won't last too long

 

[dmillz25]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Caribou is expected to finally drop below 55° in the coming days. 
 

 

That’s pretty insane for that far north

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That’s pretty insane for that far north

Yeah, their average minimum was around +3 warmer this month than the next warmest low temperature July set back in 2020.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.1	2
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

[SACRUS]

Coolest since Jun 22nd for many.

[Jacob brooklyn]

Feels almost like fall compared to last week

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the upper 80s days at the local warm spots become low 90s when you factor in the high dew points pushing the heat index into the low 90s for the monthly daily high temperature average. Even JFK gets closer to 90 when you factor in the record high dew points.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

Yes it was really uncomfortable.  2010 and 2011 felt a lot better than this.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another top 10 warmest month so far for several of our stations around the area.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.6	0
2	2019	78.1	0
3	2013	78.0	0
-	2010	78.0	0
4	2020	77.7	0
5	2011	77.6	0
6	2023	77.5	2
7	1994	77.3	0
8	2022	77.1	0
9	2016	76.8	0
10	1966	76.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	82.9	0
2	2010	82.8	0
3	1999	81.9	0
4	2019	81.5	0
5	2013	81.2	0
6	2022	81.1	0
-	2016	81.1	0
7	1955	80.9	0
8	2023	80.8	2
-	1966	80.8	0
9	2006	80.7	0
10	1994	80.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
-	2010	77.0	0
3	2020	76.9	0
4	2022	76.8	0
-	2019	76.8	0
5	2023	76.7	3
-	1966	76.7	0
-	1955	76.7	2
6	2011	76.6	1
7	2012	76.4	0
8	2016	76.3	0
-	1983	76.3	1
9	1952	76.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	2022	82.6	0
3	1993	82.5	0
4	2010	82.3	0
5	1994	81.9	0
6	2023	81.0	2
7	2013	80.9	0
8	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
9	2019	80.6	0
10	1955	80.5	0

I guarantee that 1983, 1993, 1999 and 2010 saw a lot more 90 degree highs than this though

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

At XMACIS2. The departures were largely driven by so many top 5 average warm minimum monthly temperatures around the region with the near to record high dew points. So the perception by some was that it wasn’t that hot of a month since there were no 100s and the 90 day count wasn’t as high as some recent years. 
 

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

Yes, I have a very specific definition of hot month and hot year.

10 90+ degree highs in a month = hot month

30 90+ degree highs in a year = hot year

We can use LGA for this calculation since NYC is obviously compromised

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, by a few degrees. Both were at record levels this month over 110°. Not a fun place to spend the summer. 
 

I am hoping it hits 110 there right through Monday, so every day in July is at or above 110.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 101 (1949)
NYC: 98 (1988)
LGA: 99 (1988)


Lows:

 

EWR: 57 (1956)
NYC: 57 (1956)
LGA: 61 (1956)

 

Historical:

 

1949 - The state record for Connecticut was established when the town of Greenville registered an afternoon high of 102 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - The temperature at Portland, OR, reached 107 degrees to equal their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)

 

1970: Hurricane Celia was born in the northwest of the Caribbean Sea on this day. The hurricane would be one of the worst ever to hit Texas and would reach Texas late on August 3. The storm reached its peak as it made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, as a strong Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Celia is currently the last major hurricane to make landfall on the middle Texas Coast until Hurricane Harvey in 2017. 

1979 - A forty-minute hailstorm bombed Fort Collins, CO, with baseball to softball size hail. Two thousand homes and 2500 automobiles were damaged, and about 25 persons were injured, mainly when hit on the head by the huge stones. A three month old baby died later of injuries. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Aberdeen SD, 102 degrees at Bismarck, ND, and 102 degrees at Pueblo, CO, were records for the date. Pueblo, CO, reported just .09 inch of rain for the first thirty days of the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A dozen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore, MD, hit 103 degrees, marking a record eight days of 100 degree heat for the month, and ten for the year. The high of 101 degrees at Billings, MT, marked a record seventeen days of 100 degree heat for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the northeast, with nearly fifty reports of large hail or damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A tree fell on a car at Erie, PA, injuring four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms over central Missouri deluged Columbia with 5.98 inches of rain causing flash flooding. Daytime thunderstorms in Kentucky drenched Paducah with 1.73 inches of rain in less than half an hour. Evening thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 78 mph east of Moccasin, MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

wow I knew 1988 was hot but not record breaking hot, at least not here.

Downtown Baltimore, MD, hit 103 degrees, marking a record eight days of 100 degree heat for the month, and ten for the year.

That record has never been matched or broken, even in 1991, 1993 or 2010 there?

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I am hoping it hits 110 there right through Monday, so every day in July is at or above 110.

 

Some of our fastest growing cities are in really hot climates. Increasing urbanization plus global warming adds to the adaptation challenge. They are going to have to get creative.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some of our fastest growing cities are in really hot climates. Increasing urbanization plus global warming adds to the adaptation challenge. They are going to have to get creative.

 

 

 

This is why I'm against the whole densely packed megacities.

It isn't just bad for the climate it's unhealthy, laden with pollution and also more likely to spread disease.  It's why NYC is greenifying the city, because vegetation, specifically trees, cleans the air and is healthier than having all that concrete all over the place.  Not to mention how much better and healthier fresh produce is from urban farms than the processed crap.

 

 

[dWave]

That north wind brining the colder ocean temps back to the surface. Big difference from before.

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I have a very specific definition of hot month and hot year.

10 90+ degree highs in a month = hot month

30 90+ degree highs in a year = hot year

We can use LGA for this calculation since NYC is obviously compromised

 

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer.

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	50
Philadelphia Center City Area	ThreadEx	50
PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	48
Philadelphia Area	ThreadEx	48
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	43
HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP	WBAN	42
LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT	COOP	41
NORRISTOWN	COOP	40

 

 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
CANOE BROOK	COOP	47
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	40

 

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, dWave said:

That north wind brining the colder ocean temps back to the surface. Big difference from before.

Thats fine lol.  Northerly winds eventually give us dry heat too.

Same with westerly winds.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer.

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	50
Philadelphia Center City Area	ThreadEx	50
PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	48
Philadelphia Area	ThreadEx	48
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	43
HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP	WBAN	42
LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT	COOP	41
NORRISTOWN	COOP	40

 

 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
CANOE BROOK	COOP	47
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	40

 

 

The disparity has gotten worse over the last few decades though.

Is there a way to compare the years through the 90s vs what has happened since?

It seems like the disparity between inland vs coastal 90 degree days has increased markedly

 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The disparity has gotten worse over the last few decades though.

Is there a way to compare the years through the 90s vs what has happened since?

It seems like the disparity between inland vs coastal 90 degree days has increased markedly

 

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015.  Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, readings topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s today. Fair and pleasant days coupled with low humidity will continue through at least midweek. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is concluding. Phoenix reached 110° for the 31st consecutive day a short time ago, but will likely stay below 110° tomorrow through Tuesday. However, the respite appears likely to be short-lived. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat will likely rebuild later in the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +8.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.120 today.

On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.304 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.374 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

 

[Violentweatherfan]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this weather is dreadful. thankfully it won't last too long

I hope so too, want some heat and humidity to return. 

[psv88]

Incredible day. Lots of storm damage in Suffolk yesterday. Severe delivered. 
 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their average minimum was around +3 warmer this month than the next warmest low temperature July set back in 2020.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.1	2
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

Here is an example from the NWS, providing "perspective" on the heat:

 

The implication of maps like these is that it's been a fairly normal summer with warm anomalies and cool anomalies roughly evening out. The reality is the map posted in the thread I linked to above shows a departure for June and July of +0.45F above the 1991-2020 mean. Obviously, these are unofficial values. 

If NCEI has the same departure, this would be the 20th warmest June & July period on record (out of 129 years). If we exclude 21st century data, and limit this to the 1895-2000 period (106 years), there are only seven hotter years - 1936, 1934, 1933, 1931, 1988, 1921, and 1952. So four dust bowl years, one of the worst droughts on record, and a couple of notoriously hot summers (including one during the 1950s drought period).

We're running hotter nationally than notoriously hot years like 1995, 1991, 1999, 1983, 1953, 1954, etc... Heat was a front page item in these years. Why do people think there's too much coverage of the heat? Make no mistake about it, before the advent of widespread artificial cooling, there would be thousands of deaths in years like this.

If the NWS outlook for August verifies (which is showing warmer than average temperatures across probably 80% of the CONUS), I think we will be looking at a top 10, or certainly top 15, hottest summer on record nationally. Might even be top 5 if you exclude years in the 21st century.

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

Here is an example from the NWS, providing "perspective" on the heat:

 

The implication of maps like these is that it's been a fairly normal summer with warm anomalies and cool anomalies roughly evening out. The reality is the map posted in the thread I linked to above shows a departure for June and July of +0.45F above the 1991-2020 mean. Obviously, these are unofficial values. 

If NCEI has the same departure, this would be the 20th warmest June & July period on record (out of 129 years). If we exclude 21st century data, and limit this to the 1895-2000 period (106 years), there are only seven hotter years - 1936, 1934, 1933, 1931, 1988, 1921, and 1952. So four dust bowl years, one of the worst droughts on record, and a couple of notoriously hot summers (including one during the 1950s drought period).

We're running hotter nationally than notoriously hot years like 1995, 1991, 1999, 1983, 1953, 1954, etc... Heat was a front page item in these years. Why do people think there's too much coverage of the heat? Make no mistake about it, before the advent of widespread artificial cooling, there would be thousands of deaths in years like this.

If the NWS outlook for August verifies (which is showing warmer than average temperatures across probably 80% of the CONUS), I think we will be looking at a top 10, or certainly top 15, hottest summer on record nationally. Might even be top 5 if you exclude years in the 21st century.

you use to have hundreds of deaths in the south every summer before ac became widespread

[nycwinter]

as we head into august i can see the light at the end of the tunnel summer is waning...

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

It hasn’t been hot across a large portion of the mid US. But there has been record heat along the edges from Maine to Arizona and Florida. The individual rankings tell a more complete story since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm compared to previous 30 year intervals. Many places can approach top 10 warmth these days by just going +2 against these warmer normals. I guess the U.S is getting off relative easy this month compared to the rest of the planet.

 

 

[uofmiami]

To add from Ryan Maue met summer to date:

[bluewave]

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle.

https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#
 

 

 

[lee59]

I would say summer in my area has not been bad. Yes July has been warm but June was comfortable. August will tell the tale.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I would say summer in my area has not been bad. Yes July has been warm but June was comfortable. August will tell the tale.

We could have used that June Hudson Bay block during January or February.
 

[TheClimateChanger]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle.

https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#
 

 

 

Yes, low temperatures have been absolutely scorching in many places. Everybody likes to focus on the high temperatures, but to me the humidity and excessively warm low temperatures are worse than extreme high temperatures and lower humidity. The focus is always on temperature, but if dew points and temperatures are both climbing - which appears to be the case - then apparent temperatures are probably climbing at a rate two or three times faster.

It used to cool off into the 50s regularly where I am from, and now it seldom drops below 60. There used to be July evenings where a hoodie would be appropriate because it was already in the low 60s by 9 or 10 pm, with morning lows in the 40s. Obviously the exception, not the rule. But those days simply do not happen anymore.