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July 2023


Stormlover74
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57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All of my rain came this morning…missed on everything this evening 

Nothing at all for me morning and evening, but we've had plenty of rain lately so that's ok. Now we get to enjoy a spectacular low humidity stretch for the next several days. Looks as if our next rain chance doesn't come until Friday. 

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In the wake of the frontal passage, tomorrow will turn noticeably cooler and less humid. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks will conclude over the next day or perhaps two days. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was 0.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.163 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.374 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.274 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

When was that crazy wind we had December 2020? 

Outside of tropical systems, we had that squall that delivered widespread wind damage I think it was around late August of 2020.

It's frustrating, you'd think with better moisture content and heat we'd be looking at better storms but it's been the complete opposite. 

I remember between 2005-2010, we would get these monster bow echo complexes that'd rip through the area well through the night... Doesn't happen anymore. 

My favorite squall line to this day, though not really severe occured June 1, 2006 which tracked southeast from the buffalo area. I've never seen lightning that frequent since

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46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Nothing at all for me morning and evening, but we've had plenty of rain lately so that's ok. Now we get to enjoy a spectacular low humidity stretch for the next several days. Looks as if our next rain chance doesn't come until Friday. 

Yup. The weather is going to be absolutely amazing the next few days 

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First time getting to use the drone during a thunderstorm, this minor shelf cloud came as a surprise as it was completely invisible from ground level. I didn’t get to do much since it started raining very shortly after I started flying and it was too dark when it stopped raining.

IMG_9978.thumb.jpeg.e935ec5492467d1e60aa28ae9649320b.jpeg

8E307214-195E-49D5-898F-CC5275B59648.gif.b0097f27ec7242c34192d2d819cc7792.gif
 

Lighting gif was looking to the east after the storms passed. The strong breeze left the street littered with small branches. Not much rain unfortunately, we could've used another soaking, especially going into yet another dry pattern.

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2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Outside of tropical systems, we had that squall that delivered widespread wind damage I think it was around late August of 2020.

It's frustrating, you'd think with better moisture content and heat we'd be looking at better storms but it's been the complete opposite. 

I remember between 2005-2010, we would get these monster bow echo complexes that'd rip through the area well through the night... Doesn't happen anymore. 

My favorite squall line to this day, though not really severe occured June 1, 2006 which tracked southeast from the buffalo area. I've never seen lightning that frequent since

Summer 2019 we had a few severe storms impact LI, I remember someone getting 80+ gusts on their PWS, also got some hail back in june of this year

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We need our severe events to come from the NW. When they come from the W they die out. The Ambrose Jet is already established so tons of marine layer. Hopefully I get a quick thundershower like the other night. Some rain would be helpful since we’re going back to a dry pattern. 

We had very heavy rain here for 30 min from 7:45 to 8:15 and a very strange very orange sky, it actually reminded me of back when the dust/smoke was really bad.

 

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11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s plenty hot enough. We traded the west downslope heat waves for these humid Florida stretches. Heat index is the same both ways. Can’t wait for this front to come through. Given how dry it’ll be getting maybe for once we can get a good line of storms vs the usual broken up crap. 

dry heat is MUCH better, we need for NASA to figure out a way to suck this excess water vapor into outer space.

 

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