July 2023

[Cfa]

I swear I see more lightning to the north over the sound or south over the ocean than I ever do over land here. Outflow incoming, maybe we’ll see a few puffs of a breeze. I hate it here.

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I believe summer 2019 was a good recent storm season for the island, but nearly every year surrounding that has been mediocre

Last summer was a more active sea breeze front season I think with more activity where I am while the south shore-south of the Southern State dried to a crisp. That’s been more typical of the summers I can remember. Growing up in Long Beach we’d get lucky with a dying MCS that rushes the marine layer or some other elevated convection type stuff but otherwise dry. It really is very Mediterranean type climate wise because we’re not warm enough to sustain convection on the water. 

[JerseyWx]

Had some heavy downpours that amounted to 0.40" here.

[psv88]

Was planning to boat tomorrow but looks like the worst day for storms for the island. Not liking the forecast at all. 
 

[Cfa]

48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Last summer was a more active sea breeze front season I think with more activity where I am while the south shore-south of the Southern State dried to a crisp. That’s been more typical of the summers I can remember. Growing up in Long Beach we’d get lucky with a dying MCS that rushes the marine layer or some other elevated convection type stuff but otherwise dry. It really is very Mediterranean type climate wise because we’re not warm enough to sustain convection on the water. 

I wonder how these storms usually manage to sustain themselves well off Jersey Shore but they die out everywhere else. The east end is also a sneaky little hot spot.

[Cfa]

First 70+ low of the year here with 71, it’s currently 77 so there’s no way it doesn’t hold. Gotten close a few times before but this is the first. High of 93.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I wonder how these storms usually manage to sustain themselves well off Jersey Shore but they die out everywhere else.

Southerly flow keeps us in the stable marine layer all day. It’s not the death knell for NJ shore since it runs north to south. 

[doncat]

Warmest night of the year so far, still 80° at this hour.. 92/71 temp split today. 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 80/DP 72/RH 77%

[SACRUS]

 

7/3

BLM: 94
ACY: 93
EWR: 93
LGA: 91
PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TEB: 90
TTN: 89
NYC: 89
ISP: 87
JFK: 87
 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Was planning to boat tomorrow but looks like the worst day for storms for the island. Not liking the forecast at all. 
 

Cancelled a trip to Fire Island based on the latest weather forecast model data. There certainly is a lot of support for an extremely stormy July 4th on LI. But it could almost as easily wind up mostly over the east end and Connecticut. I'm ambivalent about our cancelled plans.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm still not seeing any significant stretch of 90+ days for Central Park. Yes we'll be close any of the next 3-4 days but I think they'll fall just short most of them. Either storms, on shore winds, storm debris, haze are a variety of ways they can fall short. They'll come close again around the 12th, 13th, and 15th or 16th maybe. 

WX/PT

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Warmest night of the year so far, still 80° at this hour.. 92/71 temp split today. 

heavy rain entering the city that should drop the temp

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Sky just opened up. Loud thunder in Douglaston.

WX/PT

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    82degs.(74/90) or +5.

Reached 90 here yesterday at 6pm-7pm.

Today:   82-86, wind w., cloudy-clearer late, Rain 2pm-6pm., 74 tomorrow AM.

75*(87%RH) here at 7am.        80* at 11am.     82* at Noon.      TS ACTION.       85* at 6pm.     Reached 87* near 8pm.

 

[Stormlover74]

Very ominous forecast for today. Models don't seem to show much in the way of precip though. 

[Rmine1]

7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Cancelled a trip to Fire Island based on the latest weather forecast model data. There certainly is a lot of support for an extremely stormy July 4th on LI. But it could almost as easily wind up mostly over the east end and Connecticut. I'm ambivalent about our cancelled plans.

WX/PT

Blame the sharks! Son is a lifeguard at RM3, and someone got bit yesterday supposedly. I was at Dunewood yesterday, and the water was pretty chilly, if that’s any consolation. Not expecting much in the way of rain today.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Very ominous forecast for today. Models don't seem to show much in the way of precip though. 

Uptons forecast is essentially a washout. Not sure if I take out the boat in the morning or wait until the evening

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Very ominous forecast for today. Models don't seem to show much in the way of precip though. 

Looks like another dry day….

Wilmington continues to get the rain….

 

 

[psv88]

Uptons forecasts have been so bad I’m hesitant to cancel. What do models show for the island today?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecasts have been so bad I’m hesitant to cancel. What do models show for the island today?

Activity looks very isolated

[Rmine1]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecast is essentially a washout. Not sure if I take out the boat in the morning or wait until the evening

It’s been a “washout” for two weeks, and we ain’t seen nothing! Lol. FWIW, just came back from training in the bay, and it’s like glass. 

[forkyfork]

height rises and nva after 18z, i'm pessimistic about our storm chances

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

height rises and nva after 18z, i'm pessimistic about our storm chances

we want this vort max around 21z not 15z

[uofmiami]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecast is essentially a washout. Not sure if I take out the boat in the morning or wait until the evening

Look at the radar, I think you’re fine this morning.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Look at the radar, I think you’re fine this morning.

Yea I looked at HRRR which has pretty much nothing today. Hi Res NAM and HREF have some stuff coming through around 1-2 pm and then not much else. 
 

not sure what upton is thinking 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea I looked at HRRR which has pretty much nothing today. Hi Res NAM and HREF have some stuff coming through around 1-2 pm and then not much else. 
 

not sure what upton is thinking 

Their discussion talks about mostly isolated activity yet their forecast is "numerous showers and thunderstorms"

My fear is many towns will hear this forecast and decide to postpone fireworks to tomorrow or Thursday and then be looking up at the moon come 9:00

[ILoveWinter]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecasts have been so bad I’m hesitant to cancel. What do models show for the island today?

It feels like they've had "heavy rain" as the "headline" for each of the past several days. It's confusing since its been so isolated. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Their discussion talks about mostly isolated activity yet their forecast is "numerous showers and thunderstorms"

My fear is many towns will hear this forecast and decide to postpone fireworks to tomorrow or Thursday and then be looking up at the moon come 9:00

Fireworks time looks completely clear 

[wishcast_hater]

It feels like they've had "heavy rain" as the "headline" for each of the past several days. It's confusing since its been so isolated. 

Ridiculously heavy rain up here yesterday from 4pm until way after 10pm. I wouldn’t call it isolated as many counties were affected, it just wasn’t down in the city. Raining up here this morning as well.


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