July 2023

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day. However, strong thunderstorms could cross the region during the afternoon or evening as a cold front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, Sunday will turn noticeably cooler and less humid.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is beginning to fade. The intense heat will continue to slowly fade over the coming days with the extreme heat ending on Sunday or Monday. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, there are some hints that the heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.023 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.275 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.219 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

8 years ago. how many top ten warm months have we had in the same time period?

317

or so it seems. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

317

or so it seems. 

Yeah, you can go into XMACIS2 and run all the top 10 warmest and coldest months at stations around the area. It comes out to something like 1 top 10 coldest temperature month since January 2015 to around 30 top 10 warmest months. Different stations are a little over or under.  Each month of the year has had 2-3 top 10 warmest months. This gets multiplied by 12.

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

[forkyfork]

52 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

We haven’t, but places in the western US certainly have.  Our time will come

 

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

See Montana 

that's from blocking patterns funnelling all the cold there while everywhere else is warm 

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

that's from blocking patterns funnelling all the cold there while everywhere else is warm 

And that is how you spell an anomaly, which a top ten cold month is.  

[SACRUS]

 

7/28

BLM: 96
EWR: 95
ACY: 95
LGA: 94
TEB: 94
PHL: 94
New Brnswck: 93
TTN: 92
NYC: 92
JFK: 91
ISP: 89

[SACRUS]

 

http://www.swellmatrix.com/sst/sst-northeast8day.png   

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

56 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

And that is how you spell an anomaly, which a top ten cold month is.  

what?

[uofmiami]

92 at both my stations for today.

[Dan76]

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what?

 

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what?

Which means doesn't happen often.

[SACRUS]

storms moving into C/S - NJ.

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

 

Which means doesn't happen often.

[Jacob brooklyn]

45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what?

The acorns are dropping 

[winterwarlock]

wot wot, why am i hearing thunder

[Stormlover74]

Seeing some lightning from that cell in somerset

[winterwarlock]

great just what I need. another 1-2 inches of dumping deluge

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

great just what I need. another 1-2 inches of dumping deluge

What's your location?

[Stormlover74]

Pouring here

Didn't last long. Dropped around a tenth

[winterwarlock]

23 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

What's your location?

Belle Mead NJ, just north of Princeton

[Jacob brooklyn]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Belle Mead NJ, just north of Princeton

Ok. Cool. Southern bklyn here.

[Poker2015]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seeing some lightning from that cell in somerset

Got. 18" from that one...came out of nowhere

[Roger Smith]

According to my stats, since the top ten cold month of Feb 2015, these top ten warm months have been recorded at NYC, near miss 11-15 cases shown in ((( triple brackets ))) ... these are not adjusted for urban heat island, some of these ranks would fall slightly if a progressive u.h.i. adjustment was applied ... : 

JAN _ 1 (2023) ... (((12 2020)))

FEB _ 1 (2018) .. 2 (2017) .. 3 (2023) .. t8 (2020)

MAR _ 4 (2016) .. 7 (2020) .. (((t13 2021)))

APR _ 2 (2023) .. 3 (2017) .. (((t13 2019)))

MAY _ 2 (2015) .. 6 (2018)

JUN _ t6 (2021)

JUL _ 7 (2020) .. ((( t11 2019, t13 2022 )))

AUG _ 3 (2022) .. 4 (2016) .. 5 (2015) .. t10 (2018)

SEP _ 1 (2015) .. t10 (2016)

OCT _ 1 (2017) .. 6 (2021)

NOV _ 1 (2020) .. 2 (2015) .. (((13 2022)))

DEC _ 1 (2015) .. t3 (2021)

________________

That is a total of 25 top ten months and 31 top 15. 

Feb 2015 was third coldest and since then the highest ranking cold month is t31 coldest Nov 2019.

[Intensewind002]

Frequent lightning from that cell offshore

[nycwinter]

tomorrow night at this team you will feel the cool northerly breeze kick in i cannot wait..

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day. However, strong thunderstorms could cross the region during the afternoon or evening as a cold front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, Sunday will turn noticeably cooler and less humid.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is beginning to fade. The intense heat will continue to slowly fade over the coming days with the extreme heat ending on Sunday or Monday. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, there are some hints that the heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.023 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.275 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.219 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

I hope Phoenix hits 110 one last time on Monday, it would be interesting to see the whole month of July there with every day at 110 or above.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

tomorrow night at this team you will feel the cool northerly breeze kick in i cannot wait..

why does this heat feel so much hotter than the more extreme heat we had in 2010 and 2011?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, doncat said:

Made it to 94° today...94° is station max for month so far, reached three times... Also 0.19" of rain just after midnight.

 

 

Feels a lot hotter than it actually was.....months like July 1991, July 1993, July 1999, July 2010, July 2011, etc, would laugh at this, since we had double digit temperatures over 94 back then

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

These underperforming SE Ridge/ WAR amplifications have become few and far between. The common denominator seems to be when we have near record rainfall in area. My guess is that the ridge usually verifies stronger around 75% or more of the time from 6-10 days out. So this is one of the few times that the models were too warm. Could also be related to the near record blocking this month.
 

 

 

what caused the near record blocking, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

91/73/100 currently not as bad as yesterday but technically hotter by a degree. 6th 90 of the summer for me

Hit 93 here right around 2 PM for the high of the day

Tomorrow should be the last 90+ day for awhile and our first heatwave of the season.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

Up to 92 now, but sea breeze is upon us, let’s see if it’s just a dew spike or actually cools us down. 
 

roasting today in NW Suffolk. Many PWS to my north are 92-94. 

Hit 93 here on the south shore around 2 PM before the sea breeze came in-- it doesn't make it feel any better, it just gets more humid with temps hovering around 90 for a few hours.