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July 2023


Stormlover74
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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Got me beat today. stronger southerly flow keeping me cooler at 91. 

FRG at 87/76/98. Nasty stuff

A rarity for sure, thanks to the S wind.  Helps being a little further N to get the higher temp, but it's disgusting out regardless.

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Color me confused 

Upton has a STW up until 8, but here’s tonight’s point and click forecast 

Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph.
 

I’d lean towards the 20%, radar not looking very promising 

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46 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Severe Warning here, under it now. Heavy rain, haven’t seen that in a while…lots of lightning but not too much wind.  High of 88, 84/78 currently.

Couple places up by you with probable lightning strikes

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6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just had a big storm in Patterson. I have to say hearing the Mayor call this heat a matter of life and death was ridiculous. It is hot but it is not hotter than we typically get in a summer lately. It is hot and heat does kill but let’s not pile on hyperbole. 

Willful hyperbole to push an agenda. 

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8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just had a big storm in Patterson. I have to say hearing the Mayor call this heat a matter of life and death was ridiculous. It is hot but it is not hotter than we typically get in a summer lately. It is hot and heat does kill but let’s not pile on hyperbole. 

Completely agree. The 93 with high humidity here today didn't feel comfortable, but it wasn't horrific. It just seemed like normal heat/humidity for late July. It didn't stop me from doing my usual physical activities outside. Obviously sensitive groups have to be careful outside in this type of heat. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That was highly unlikely due to the rains this month. Last year was an ideal setup for multiple 100s with the dry July. 

There's still tomorrow of course so don't want to jump the gun just yet. 

Forky's post was about the Euro

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The CI story today plus one teen drowned, one teen saved.

76*(95%RH) here at 7am{was 74 earlier}.     79* at 9am.      81* at 10am.      84* at 11am{H.I. of 96}.    86* at Noon{H.I. of 98}.      88* at 1pm.{H.I. of 101}.     89* at 3pm and still H.I. at 101     91* at 3:30pm{H.I. 103}      92* at 4pm{103 H.I.}    93* at 5pm{H.I. 106}   Reached  94* at 5:30pm-still 106.        92* at 7pm

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These strong south based blocks continue to become more common. We could have used this more +PNA back in December.  Turned out to be a record setting wet pattern in spots with the energy getting stuck under the block. 
 

E7C485FB-BC3D-4910-9D24-A1DF4FC56C4E.gif.16b8c24ed8d850c90367efb3d6932690.gif
 

0274E41A-030C-4510-9AF4-DCC491589A39.gif.fd81fd3b4490a99dcbccedbfbdc53dbb.gif

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45 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Completely agree. The 93 with high humidity here today didn't feel comfortable, but it wasn't horrific. It just seemed like normal heat/humidity for late July. It didn't stop me from doing my usual physical activities outside. Obviously sensitive groups have to be careful outside in this type of heat. 

I was outside working on my gutters and siding. It was hot but it wasn’t unbearable. With the clouds I felt fine. Then again I’m also the guy that goes for runs on vacation in Florida in August. 

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26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was outside working on my gutters and siding. It was hot but it wasn’t unbearable. With the clouds I felt fine. Then again I’m also the guy that goes for runs on vacation in Florida in August. 

I went for a run outside in the afternoon heat today too. Made it a short run and didn't run as fast as usual, but it was ok. Didn't feel horrible. The nice breeze helped. 

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A heatwave is continuing to develop in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Readings will likely climb into the middle and perhaps upper 90s again tomorrow. The humidity will add to the discomfort with heat indices again reaching or exceeding 105° tomorrow. The heatwave will not be a prolonged affair. Following a frontal passage on Saturday or Saturday night, Sunday will turn noticeably cooler and less humid.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is beginning to fade. The intense heat will continue to slowly fade over the coming days with the extreme heat ending this weekend. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, there are some hints that the heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -22.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.95 today.

On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.215 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.280 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Completely agree. The 93 with high humidity here today didn't feel comfortable, but it wasn't horrific. It just seemed like normal heat/humidity for late July. It didn't stop me from doing my usual physical activities outside. Obviously sensitive groups have to be careful outside in this type of heat. 

Agreed, I said the same earlier in the thread and got weenied. This "heatwave" was overblown. It was hot but not excessively hot perhaps due to this type of heat becoming the norm in recent years. There was a bit of a breeze that made the air feels less stagnant so that helped.

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