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July 2023


Stormlover74
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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well isn't it the SPC that actually issued the watch? Looking on their site they did not include Union, Essex or Hudson Counties in the STW which makes zero sense to me. That map looks so stupid. :lol::huh:

I believe the SPC issues the watch box, then it's up to the local offices to determine which counties to include. 

IMG_5036.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

Confused, confusedIMG_9382.thumb.jpeg.9504a7fbe0caf49589f0d6d715e3b376.jpeg

We won’t be getting anything east of the city unless we’re lucky with a sea breeze front or dying MCS. This is just a more humid continuation of what we had last week. Vast majority of the activity will be inland. Expect swampy marine layer until we get a cold frontal passage. 

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41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We won’t be getting anything east of the city unless we’re lucky with a sea breeze front or dying MCS. This is just a more humid continuation of what we had last week. Vast majority of the activity will be inland. Expect swampy marine layer until we get a cold frontal passage. 

Pretty much. However the water temps have gone up significantly in the last week. That generally helps with convection. Sometimes you will see cells fire once they get 150 miles or so offshore and hit the Gulf Stream. 

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43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We won’t be getting anything east of the city unless we’re lucky with a sea breeze front or dying MCS. This is just a more humid continuation of what we had last week. Vast majority of the activity will be inland. Expect swampy marine layer until we get a cold frontal passage. 

Oh I know. Just annoying to see “heavy rain” each day, knowing it ain’t happening 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much. However the water temps have gone up significantly in the last week. That generally helps with convection. Sometimes you will see cells fire once they get 150 miles or so offshore and hit the Gulf Stream. 

Yeah unfortunately we’re 150 miles away! Lol

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It will be steamy and very warm tomorrow through Thursday. Temperatures could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region through Thursday. Shower and thundershower activity will become more limited.

Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month.

The hottest weather so far now covers the Desert Southwest. Phoenix reached a near-record 116° today. That was its hottest reading since June 19, 2021 when the mercury also topped out at 116°. Readings will continue to reach or exceed 110° through the remainder of the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +6.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.493 today.

On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.587 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.397 (RMM).

 

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44 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much. However the water temps have gone up significantly in the last week. That generally helps with convection. Sometimes you will see cells fire once they get 150 miles or so offshore and hit the Gulf Stream. 

We still need some kind of trigger for convection here like a front. The sea breeze front can work when we have a humid airmass and we start with a westerly flow so there’s a wind shift boundary, but those aren’t usually widespread. So we wait for a larger front or overnight luck with a dying MCS/elevated convection. 

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21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We still need some kind of trigger for convection here like a front. The sea breeze front can work when we have a humid airmass and we start with a westerly flow so there’s a wind shift boundary, but those aren’t usually widespread. So we wait for a larger front or overnight luck with a dying MCS/elevated convection. 

It’s pretty spectacular how pronounced this pattern has been. The current radar shows it perfectly. Flooding issues pretty much surrounding the metro, but absolutely nothing survives. I’m not sure if this is a recent thing, or this has been going on forever and we are only just noticing (in my cases because I constantly check the radars from my phone) I think it’s a little bit of both. I remember plenty of good summer storms on the island that were the result of MCS systems that did make it all the way to the beaches. 

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2 hours ago, snywx said:

Up to 2.15” and currently pouring 

I figured people up your way were doing well.  Been watching radar all afternoon skip off to the north of me by ~25-30 miles and now to the south and east too.  I can see the billowing cumulonimbus all around me.  It's quite a sight, but not a drop here.

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24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s pretty spectacular how pronounced this pattern has been. The current radar shows it perfectly. Flooding issues pretty much surrounding the metro, but absolutely nothing survives. I’m not sure if this is a recent thing, or this has been going on forever and we are only just noticing (in my cases because I constantly check the radars from my phone) I think it’s a little bit of both. I remember plenty of good summer storms on the island that were the result of MCS systems that did make it all the way to the beaches. 

I believe summer 2019 was a good recent storm season for the island, but nearly every year surrounding that has been mediocre

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36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The storms in CT near BDR are crazy!

The view across the water is insane

Just saw a flash of lightning to my north from that storm, and the outflow boundary just came through. Too bad here it means dog dung for making anything happen. 

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