July 2023

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.87" of rain for the day yesterday

High for the day was 90

Current temp 68/DP 67/RH 98%

[SACRUS]

7/25

EWR: 88
LGA: 88
BLM: 87
New Brnswck: 87
TEB: 87
PHL: 86
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 84
JFK: 84
ISP: 84

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Roger Smith]

Touch and go whether the severe heat makes it into NYC or gets cut off around central NJ on Friday but what looks more certain is a chance of severe storms on Saturday as a strong wave forms around Ohio and moves towards n NJ and NYC. My guess is something like 95-100F in central NJ on Friday, 92-95 F at NYC airports, 85-90 at ISP and POU then 2-3" rain potential (hit or miss probably) across the region on Saturday. 

The southwest heat dome is currently at 600 dm over NM and is supposed to start deflating gradually over next five days to the low 590s allowing more of a typical monsoon mid-summer pattern to replace the magnifying glass effect. By this weekend there could be some monsoon storms forming over AZ. I notice the heat has moved as far north as the southern tier of counties in Nebraska but not so much beyond that, Omaha was only into the mid-80s while Topeka was 102. That is probably a precursor of a similar sharp gradient with the heat as it makes its one or two day presence felt further east, but the southwest ridge and the Atlantic ridge never make much of a connection before it all collapses this weekend. With that heavy rain potential on Saturday, temps could be between 75 and 80 during the rain but highs could reach 85-90 in any sunshine. 

[SnoSki14]

Thursday's severe could be really interesting. Pretty good timing too

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of July are averaging  84degs.(74/94) or +6.

Month to date is    79.1[+1.6].       July should end at   80.1[+2.5].

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today:   86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 76 tomorrow AM.

69*(97%RH) here at 7am{was 68 earlier}.     73* at 9am.      78* at Noon.      81* at 3pm.      83* at 4pm.

[Allsnow]

Can anyone direct me to the link for the Rutgers weather station that has MTD rainfall for July? 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can anyone direct me to the link for the Rutgers weather station that has MTD rainfall for July? 

Is this what you are looking for?

 

https://www.njweather.org/data

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Is this what you are looking for?

 

https://www.njweather.org/data

Thanks. I was looking for how much rain has fallen this month at that station? In the past I could be directed to that stations website and get it directly. I guess they did away with that link. Thanks for the help. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. I was looking for how much rain has fallen this month at that station? In the past I could be directed to that stations website and get it directly. I guess they did away with that link. Thanks for the help. 

You can also use XMACIS2

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2020	11.39	0
2	1988	11.17	0
3	1975	10.33	0
4	1997	10.00	0
5	1984	9.65	0
6	1987	9.60	0
7	1969	8.26	0
8	2004	8.19	0
9	1989	7.42	0
10	2023	7.26	6

[Poker2015]

Is Saturday going to be storm after storm potential or hit or miss ones? I have about 70 people coming over. Sunday looks nice, but only low 80s and I hate changing it.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can also use XMACIS2

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2020	11.39	0
2	1988	11.17	0
3	1975	10.33	0
4	1997	10.00	0
5	1984	9.65	0
6	1987	9.60	0
7	1969	8.26	0
8	2004	8.19	0
9	1989	7.42	0
10	2023	7.26	6

This is great information! Thanks for the link. 

[Stormlover74]

Excessive heat watch. First one of those in a while

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

Is Saturday going to be storm after storm potential or hit or miss ones? I have about 70 people coming over. Sunday looks nice, but only low 80s and I hate changing it.

Kinda looks like a washout.  Sucks

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 64 and sunny.  Clouds and storms in the way tue from starting the 90s streak for most, today looks good for many to top 90. The Western Atlantic Ridge builds west  raising heights and linking with the western heat ridge to push strong heat streaking east, peaking >18c to near 20c Sat (7/29).  Mid to upper 90s and its a matter of clouds and any storms preventing a stray 100 degree reading in the hot spots.  Near or record eat for places like EWR, PHL, LGA.   Another piece of energy passes to the north Thu evening so isolted showers and storms the more south you go.   The W/ Atl Ridge is contracting by Sat evening and trough pushing down into the area by Sun (7/30)   Storms from the north  and west by later in the day could cloud things up and pop storms into the overnight. 

 

By Sunday (7/30) it's clearing and we open August near normal and much cooler than the strong heat.  By Aug 3-5 another piece of the strong heat is nearby and more humid flow returns with overall warm, humid and likely some enhanced storm chances.  As the western ridge builds it'll be reliant to watch the next expansion of the western atlantic ridge to force the trough back NE into the GL and keep it humid nd warm to hot occasionally.  Way out there ridge could push into the east in later part of August from the west.

 

  

  

 

 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Kinda looks like a washout.  Sucks

06z GFS kept most stuff north and last nights Euro wasn't too bad either.  CMC pretty wet

 

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Kinda looks like a washout.  Sucks

 

Euro has scattered storms mainly north / west for Saturday I'm sure it'll change 100 times with timing of the front.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1940)
LGA: 98 (1940)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 62 (1976)  

Historical:

 

1819 - Twin cloudbursts of fifteen inches struck almost simultaneously at Catskill, NY, and Westfield, MA. Flash flooding resulted in enormous erosion. (David Ludlum)

 

1874: Torrential rainfall brought flash flooding to Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

 

1890: During the morning hours, an estimated F3 tornado went through the southern part of Lawrence, Massachusetts. The tornado left 500 people homeless as the tornado destroyed 35 homes and damaged 60 others.

 

1897: Jewel, Maryland received 14.75 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. This record is currently the oldest, state rainfall record in the United States. All other state rainfall records are in the 1900s and 2000s

 

1931: A swarm of grasshoppers descends on crops throughout the American heartland, devastating millions of acres. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota, already in the midst of a bad drought, suffered tremendously from this disaster. 

1943 - Tishomingo, OK, baked in the heat as the mercury soared to 121 degrees, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1960 - The temperature at Salt Lake City, UT, hit 107 degrees, an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: Tropical Storm Claudette stalled over Alvin, Texas, inundating the town with 45 inches of rain in 42 hours. The total included 43 inches in 24 hours, which is the maximum 24-hour rainfall in American history.

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced hail two inches in diameter in McHenry County, IL, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Auburn, ME. A wind gust of 90 mph was recorded at Blairstown, NJ, before the anemometer broke. The high winds were associated with a small tornado. The record high of 88 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, and in the south central U.S. Eight cities in the northwestern and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Salem, OR, hit 103 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeastern Texas, with more than three inches reported at the Widllife Refuge in southwestern Chambers County. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Montana, with wind gusts to 62 mph reported at Helena. Eight cities from Maine to Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date, including Newark, NJ, with a reading of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[winterwx21]

The weather after the big heat looks spectacular for several days. Slightly below normal temps (highs in the low 80s) with low humidity. Monday the dewpoints could get down to the low 50s. That looks like a top 10 type of day. 

[Poker2015]

48 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro has scattered storms mainly north / west for Saturday I'm sure it'll change 100 times with timing of the front.

Thats what I was seeing too. Mostly to the north of us, but definitely will change 100 times.

Do you know if they will be coming from straight west or more from the north/south? That makes a huge difference in my area whether we get hit or not.

[MJO812]

Low to mid 90s the next few days 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

06z GFS kept most stuff north and last nights Euro wasn't too bad either.  CMC pretty wet

 

CMC seems like an outlier-other models don't have alot

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Low to mid 90s the next few days 

an awesome airmass from Sunday Tue though...can't wait.

[Snowlover11]

36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

an awesome airmass from Sunday Tue though...can't wait.

indeed lows get down in the 50s

[dWave]

NWS upped forecast to 100.

Those consecutive lows in the mid 60s afterwards may be more impressive though.

 

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Way out there ridge could push into the east in later part of August from the west. 

This is the ridge out west not the western Atlantic ridge right? A hot look?

[uofmiami]

 

 

[Stormlover74]

I always thought 105 meant heat advisory. And we never get excessive heat warnings so they must've changed the criteria

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Upton NY

Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

204 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM

EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Passaic, Hudson, Bergen, Essex, and Union counties in northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

[dWave]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I always thought 105 meant heat advisory. And we never get excessive heat warnings so they must've changed the criteria

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Upton NY

Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

204 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM

EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Passaic, Hudson, Bergen, Essex, and Union counties in northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

Heat advisory is for 95 - 99 for 2 consecutive days or 100 - 104 for any length of time.

Excessive heat warning is for 105+ for at least 2 consecutive hours.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, dWave said:

Heat advisory is for 95 - 99 for 2 consecutive days or 100 - 104 for any length of time.

Excessive heat warning is for 105+ for at least 2 consecutive hours.

Ok. They almost always go heat advisory though