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July 2023


Stormlover74
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The last 8 days of July are averaging   82degs.(72/92) or +4.

Month to date is    79.2[+1.8].       July should end at    80.0[+2.4].

Reached 86 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:   83-88, wind w. to s., p. cloudy, 73 tomorrow AM.

75*(71%RH) here at 7am{was 74 earlier}.      80* at Noon.      81* at 2pm.     83*at 4pm.       85* at 6pm.       78* at 8pm.

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43 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I made it to 59.5 for a low this weekend, which feels unbelievable in light of how warm nights have been since July began. 

 

Was really the first decent weekend in awhile-others have had rain on at last one day or terrible humidity

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75 / 66 and mostly cloudy with some showers into P and SNJ.  Scattered showers into the region. Low - mid 80s (if enough sun).  Tue (7/25) transition back to a very humid and hot is commpleting as the W. Atlantic Ridge expands west and splits the trough.  Some potential widespread showers and storms Tue PM. 

Wed (7/26) - Sun (7/30) the heat is on as sw flow pulls the western heat east 850 mb tmps >18c and near or peaking >20c Fri (7/28) / Sat (7/29).  W. Atl Ridge in the classic Bermuda position.   Some storms ride the periphery of the ridge to our north but wouldn't rule out some storms in northern sections Fri pm.  Peak heat mid - upper 90, we'll see if perhaps enough sunshine and day heating gets the hot spots in NE-NJ or LGA to 100.  Will be close. 

Ridge contracts and trough and front push south Sun (7/30) with like some storms.  Cool back near normal to open next month before warming into the first week.  Western Atlantic ridge expands west again, Western ridge anchored with trough into the NE backing into the GL, looks to go humid and warm towards the end of the first week of the month.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

     

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Records:


Highs:


EWR: 102 (2022)
NYC: 97 (2010)
LGA: 98 (2022)


Lows:


EWR: 55 (1947)
NYC: 56 (1893)
LGA: 59 (1992)


Historical:

 

1886 - Rain fell at Lawrence, KS, for the first time in four weeks. Rain fell over much of the state of Kansas that day relieving a severe drought which began in May. The very dry weather ruined crops in Kansas. (David Ludlum)

1936 - A record all time Kansas state high temperature set just 6 days earlier was tied in the town of Alton, located in Osborne County. (US National Weather Service Wichita)

1942 - The temperature at Las Vegas, NV, hit 117 degrees to set an all-time record for that location. The record was tied on July 19, 2005.

1947 - One of the most powerful strokes of lightning ever measured yielded 345,000 amperes of electricity in Pittsburgh, PA. (The Weather Channel)

1952 - The temperature at Louisville, GA, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1952: The temperature at Louisville, Georgia soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. The temperature also hit 112 degrees in Greenville, Georgia on August 20, 1983.

1980 - Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24 hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 91 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their hottest reading in 25 years of records, and marked their third straight day of record 90 degree heat. Bakersfield, CA, dipped to 60 degrees, marking their eighth straight morning of record cool weather. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Oklahoma, and over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Brainerd, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced some flash flooding in New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM, was deluged with an inch and a half of rain in forty minutes. Evening thunderstorms soaked Whie Pine, PA, with two inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

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49 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

Yep the big hot summer is going poof...yes above normal for July but big long lasting heat has not been there this year...and even this heat is not that impressive east of the city...might be near 90 here a couple of days which is nothing unusual for late July.  Friday looks like the hottest day-Sat/Sun it really drops off esp north and east of the city

1690653600-sGK5i8O9lPo.png

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Records that could be challenged.  Caveat storms, clouds.  850 MB temps forecast 18c - 21c offer near or record potential.  Could be close.

Fri 7/28
EWR:  101
PHL: 100
LGA:  98

Sat 7/29
EWR: 100
LGA: 97
PHL: 98

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47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep the big hot summer is going poof...yes above normal for July but big long lasting heat has not been there this year...and even this heat is not that impressive east of the city...might be near 90 here a couple of days which is nothing unusual for late July.  Friday looks like the hottest day-Sat/Sun it really drops off esp north and east of the city

1690653600-sGK5i8O9lPo.png

Warmest departures this month to our north in Maine and along the Southern Tier.

44D56419-B4B8-450E-8E59-075B96E79A67.thumb.png.7bedb4afd2feafb7e32bd1a618096600.png

 

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

I'm not sure yet of how beautiful it will be if the northwesterly flow next week sends us another round of smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires.  Something to watch at least.

As long as it's not as bad as it was during early June!

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

Low 80s with dews in the 50s would be amazing especially after near triple digits Friday 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Looks like the Euro may be showing too much onshore flow again near Newark Thursday into Friday. Those highs near Philly would probably make it to around Newark. Early Saturday looks like a compressional warming event ahead of the cold front.

8606AA24-2E3B-436F-84DA-0583A0AC987A.thumb.png.9abc659ff8472150ac5e41590a7ce4d0.png
A2F85534-224C-40E8-9E0D-141E10AD7BED.thumb.png.aa7f94eb478766e01b945a9e85124394.png

3560B0E2-4D40-4903-99EF-144E80F87D68.thumb.png.125bd2b7da77e5164f36778c9a7982ca.png

Does this get into orh and boston? 

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Warm weather will continue through tomorrow. A shower or thunderstorm is possible as warmer air pushes into the region. Afterward, a heatwave is likely in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The humidity could add to the discomfort. At present, the potential heatwave does not appear to be a prolonged affair.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Phoenix reached a record-tying 116°. El Paso rang up its 39th consecutive 100° day.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -22.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.031 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.343 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

87 today.

this week will bring many to 10 90 degree days. Not a cold summer as many predicted

Where do you see that?   Front comes through Saturday and we then cool off...so maybe 4-5 days of 90 depending on locale.   Here maybe 2-3 days.

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