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July 2023


Stormlover74
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The next 8 days are averaging   82degs.(72/93) or +4.

Month to date is   79.2[+1.8].       Should be    80.0[+2.4] by the 31st.

Reached 88 here yesterday.

Today:   85-90, wind w., few clouds, 73 tomorrow AM.

74*(65%RH) here at 7am{was 73 earlier}.     78* at 9am.      79* at Noon.      81* at 1pm.    Reached 86* at 3pm.    down to  82* at 4pm.      81* at 6pm.    78* at 9pm.

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81 / 60 with another gorgeous summer day on tap.  Party to mostly sunny warm upper 80s and a ew stray 90 readings.   Next 48 hours are less humid, warm near normal through Tue (7/25)  mid and upper 80s some hot spots could get to 90 to jump start heat legnth.

Wed (7/26) the Western Atlantic ridge retros back and pumps heights, splits the trough and brings a more steamy sw flow and start of the seasons hottest period so far with widespread 90s, could be some storms and clouds with transition.  By Thu (7/27) strong heat from the western ridge is pushing east 850 MB temps >16c approaching >18c Fri (7/28) and near 20c Sat (7/29).  The Western Atl Ridge contracts a bit by next Sat / Sun (7/30) with storms but still overall hot with storm chances to close the month and open next.

Beyond into next month looks ovrall warm to start, more humid and similar to earlier in July, storm chances with strong ridge into the west and trough into the GL/NE.  The Western Atlantic ridge pulsing back west later in the period.  Tropics to be watched SE.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011) - and that day was mainly cloudy if i recall right
NYC: 100 (2011)
LGA: 100 (1955)


Lows:

 

EWR: 55 (1939)
NYC: 58 (1890) 6th record low in July for that year 1890 - would love to see the monthly total averages
LGA: 59 (1992)

 

Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.

Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.

Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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21 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So I'm picturing a Cat 4 or 5 energized by 95° water beating up the GOM, transiting FL while it's looking for some Gulf Stream Good Juice and then running up the coast, following that pretty red ribbon, hammering 50 million people in the US before restrengthening off the Canadian coast and causing outright mayhem as it sits and spins groovin' on the bathtub water.

No? 

Don set a new record for furthest north development near the record warm pool in July.

 

 

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Found this interesting. ISP has hit 80° or above 25 days in a row now, today will be 26, which is the 6th longest streak on record. By Saturday, it will be at least 31 days. That'll make it tied with last year for 4th place. Last year's would have been the longest on record with 65 days in a row, however, just one day, August 1st, 2022, was below 80°. It's interesting that we have a streak this year this long considering there was only one 90 degree day with a max of 91°. All other years had heat 95°+.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 80
for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
1 41 2010-07-02 through 2010-08-11
2 33 2022-06-29 through 2022-07-31
- 33 1966-06-27 through 1966-07-29
4 31 2022-08-02 through 2022-09-01
5 27 2019-06-26 through 2019-07-22
6 25 2023-06-28 through 2023-07-22
- 25 1988-07-25 through 1988-08-18
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Mainly dry and warm weather will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, there is growing potential for the development of a heatwave in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. At present, the potential heatwave does not appear to be a prolonged affair.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Las Vegas registered its record-tying 10th consecutive 110° day. Phoenix extended its record to 24 consecutive 110° days. El Paso's 100° streak reached 38 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -22.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.894 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.346 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.032 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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