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July 2023


Stormlover74
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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am thinking those record SSTs along the Canadian Maritimes helped with all time the record warm minimum in that area recently.


AE5DE47C-F002-4BB2-A8A3-56E88FD08FAF.thumb.png.485a1f58414c544da4aba877fd28e994.png

So I'm picturing a Cat 4 or 5 energized by 95° water beating up the GOM, transiting FL while it's looking for some Gulf Stream Good Juice and then running up the coast, following that pretty red ribbon, hammering 50 million people in the US before restrengthening off the Canadian coast and causing outright mayhem as it sits and spins groovin' on the bathtub water.

No? 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like another struggle snowfall wise this winter 

I had 8.5" this "winter" and that was mostly from being lucky on the 2/28 event. South shore had white rain. I don't see how this coming winter could possibly be any worse but I'm ready to be surprised. 

If we get one juiced Nino southern bomb with cold enough air for just a few days, I'll be totally fine with that and zero else. But a massive east based Nino can easily be a complete waste like 97-98 with numerous good tracks but zero cold air. And the worst part about that was it helped usher in a big Nina right after which caused more suck that we couldn't shake until the 12/30/00 storm hit. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extreme heat has really been hugging the southern tier this month. Be interesting to see if the heat stops in the NJ 78-80 corridor or it comes further north in later runs. 

 

 

Looks like a nice cool shot to start August 

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Tomorrow will be fair and warmer. There is some potential for the development of a heatwave in the northern Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of next week.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Salt Lake City, which reached 105° so far today, could make a run at its all-time high temperature tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -10.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.894 today.

On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.037 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.252 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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8 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Wasn’t it Christmas eve that year that it was 75 degrees? I remember being in a shirt going to a family event 

Yeah many warm memories from that crazy month. I remember riding my bike from the Bronx to Astoria in a t shirt and shorts just before Christmas. 

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