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July 2023


Stormlover74
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A fair and dry weekend lies ahead.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Phoenix reached 117° today, its 22nd consecutive day with highs at or above 110°. Tucson also extended its record for 110° days to 13. Salt Lake City could make a run at its all-time high temperature tomorrow and Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.240 today.

On July 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.245 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.509 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  84degs.(75/94) or +6!

Month to date is    79.3[+1.9].      Should be    80.6[+3.1] by the 30th.

Reached 93 here yesterday(H.I. of 103) at 6:30pm.

Today:     85-90, wind nw., few clouds, 72 tomorrow AM.

71*(72%RH) here at 7am.       73* at 9am.       77* at Noon.        82* at 3pm.        86* at 4pm.    Reached  88*(38%RH) at 4:15pm.       86* at 6pm.       81* at 9pm.

Still looking for hottest day so far:

naefs_2023072200_ne_anom_gh_500_162.png

and then relief............

1689984000-RsaXi9Pj0w0.png

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28 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

So another la niña winter for you huh? Lol

The La Niña background state has been finding a way to push back against even the strongest El Niño’s due to the record WPAC warm pool. The strongest winter La Niña-like month was during the December 2015 super El Niño. But at least we had a nice El Niño backloaded effect from Jan into Feb.


1E3F505C-EDF4-4FC1-8FB0-C95C4D832A0B.png.93ac80f1774e8a4f554bab4a507670b3.png

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña background state has been finding a way to push back against even the strongest El Niño’s due to the record WPAC warm pool. The strongest winter La Niña-like month was during the December 2015 super El Niño. But at least we had a nice El Niño backloaded effect from Jan into Feb.


1E3F505C-EDF4-4FC1-8FB0-C95C4D832A0B.png.93ac80f1774e8a4f554bab4a507670b3.png

Wasn’t it Christmas eve that year that it was 75 degrees? I remember being in a shirt going to a family event 

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79 / 60 and very nice out.  Partly to mostly sunny with clouds pressing south.  Great stretch of weather and reprieve from the sauna.  Near normal the next few days and rain free with lower humidity.  Mid / upper 80s could see stray 90 in the hot spots through Tue (7/24).

Wed (7/25) the western atlantic ridge is building west and a more humid flow develops along with height rises forcing the trough to lift out and split out so some storms then.  By Thu heat is pushing east from the western ridge and a 4 - 5 days, peaking with strong heat by next fri (7/28) into next weekend Sun (7/30).  Models have 850 mb temperatures >18c , pushing 20c at times.  So hot, humid with a couple days of strong heat. 

The W/ Atl Ridge contracts towards the 31st/1st with storms and open the next month likely humid and stormy again with the western ridge pumping trough into the GL/NE and the western atlantic ridge expanding back west and retrograding towards the end of the first week o next month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif    

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 108 ( 2011) the infamous torch rom 12 yrs ago
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)


Lows:

 

EWR: 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)

 

Historical:

 

1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum)

1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data)

1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1988: Dust devils are not a unique phenomenon, but usually they stay minimal. This was not the case in Dickinson County, Iowa where a powerful dust devil developed on the edge of Lake Okoboji. It picked up whole sections of several docks and swept away all of the loose dirt in the area. Estimated winds exceeded 60 mph.

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Wasn’t it Christmas eve that year that it was 75 degrees? I remember being in a shirt going to a family event 

Yeah, 70s on Christmas Eve and a wild 50° average for the month.


 

Data for December 24, 2015 through December 24, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 74
NJ CRANFORD COOP 72
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 72
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 72
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 71
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 71
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 69
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 69
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 69
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN


 

Data for December 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 50.8
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50.8
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 50.8
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 50.3
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49.8
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 49.7
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 49.5
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña background state has been finding a way to push back against even the strongest El Niño’s due to the record WPAC warm pool. The strongest winter La Niña-like month was during the December 2015 super El Niño. But at least we had a nice El Niño backloaded effect from Jan into Feb.


1E3F505C-EDF4-4FC1-8FB0-C95C4D832A0B.png.93ac80f1774e8a4f554bab4a507670b3.png

Looks like another struggle snowfall wise this winter 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Looks like another struggle snowfall wise this winter 

Who knows. I am hoping there can be enough of a Nino backloaded response for at least higher snowfall totals than last winter. But we have seen some odd Nino interactions recently with the more Niña-like WPAC warm pool. 

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