July 2023

[JustinRP37]

51 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I don't know why anyone would be against clean energy. I think what people are saying is we have to keep using oil until we can sustain some kind of life style that people will except, without it.

Agree. Nobody is giving up air travel, cars, boats, etc. but shockingly there are many against clean energy and renewables. I get it all the time in my field and don’t quite get it. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly fair and warm days. Some showers or thundershowers are possible on Friday. Afterward, a fair and dry weekend will follow.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

Daily records included:

Austin: 106° (tied record set in 2022) ***record 10th consecutive 105° day***
Brownsville: 101° (old record: 99°, 1918, 1978 and 2018)
Corpus Christi: 100° (old record: 98°, 2000, 2009 and 2011)
Del Rio: 107° (tied record set in 1951)
El Paso: (old record: 107°, 2022) ***latest 110° reading on record***
Phoenix: 119° (old record: 116°, 1989)
Roswell: 112° (old record: 109°, 2022) ***new July record***
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 2009)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -20.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.703 today.

On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.458 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.287 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal).

 

[lee59]

Only 81 for a high today, .05 inch of rain. Now 72 feeling better than the last few nights.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we get endless uhi posts whenever newark breaks a record but nobody mentions how we turned the entire great plains into a parking lot in the 30s

The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w

The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.
 

 

[SACRUS]

7/19

 

EWR: 84
PHL: 84
TEB: 83
LGA: 82
ACY:  82
New Brnswck: 81
ISP: 81
BLM: 80
NYC: 80
TTN: 80
JFK: 78

[SACRUS]

 

7/19 pc never connected this post

Records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 100 (2013) the massive ridge hooked with the extreme west based WAR to start the blazing heat.
NYC: 102 (1977)
LGA: 100 (2013)


Lows:

 

EWR: 60 (1962)
NYC: 57 (1924)
LGA: 62 (2000)

 

Historical:

 

1886 - A hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico crossed Florida causing great damage from Cedar Keys to Jacksonville. (David Ludlum)

1886: The 1886 Atlanta Hurricane season was a very active year with ten hurricanes, seven of which struck the United States. During the evening hours of July 18th, a category 1 storm made landfall near Homosassa Springs, Florida. Damage was slight as the area was thinly inhabited. The hurricane weakened to tropical storm status south of Gainsville and emerged on the eastern side of Florida, south of Jacksonville during the morning hours of the 19th. This was the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States.

1960 - Cow Creek and Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, reported morning lows of 102 degrees. The afternoon high at Greenland Ranch was 124 degrees, and the high at Cow Creek that afternoon was 126 degrees. The coolest low for the entire month for both locations was 82 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1974 - A severe thunderstorm with winds to 80 mph and up to two inches of rain washed out four to five foot deep sections of roadway in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Three persons in a station wagon died as it was carried 3000 feet down a wash by a ten foot wall of water. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of southwestern Pennsylvania. Some places receive more than twelve inches in a seven hour period. The heavy rains cause flash flooding along streams resulting in widespread severe damage. The cloudburst floods Johnstown with up to ten feet of water resulting in 76 deaths, countless injuries, and 424 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the western and the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Winnemucca, NV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Flagstaff AZ reported a record low of 34 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in New York State and New Jersey. High winds and hail two inches in diameter injured two persons and caused considerable damage to crops in the Pine Island area of central New York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced more than five inches of rain at Red Cloud, including two inches in fifteen minutes. Torrid temperatures continued over California, with record highs of 115 degrees at Red Bluff and 116 degrees at Redding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced 5.50 inches of rain south of Alexander, AR, in just ninety minutes, and flash flooding which resulted claimed the life of one woman. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.95 inches of rain in twelve hours east of Muncie. Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees, and Phoenix, AZ, with a high of 116 degrees. The low that night at Phoenix of 93 degrees was the warmest of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A severe heat wave gripped the region during early to mid-July. Las Vegas, NV tied their all-time record high temperature of 117 degrees, equalling the old record set on July 24, 1942.

2006 - The first of two severe thunderstorms hits the St. Louis area, causing the largest power outage in the city's history with over 570,000 people losing electricity.

 

2006: A derecho impacted a sellout crowd of almost 44,000 St. Louis Cardinals fans, packed into the new Busch Stadium. Winds of about 80 mph whirled around the St. Louis area, sending the fans running for shelter. The winds knocked out power and broke windows out of the press box. Nearly two minutes after the winds began at 100 mph, they stopped, and it started to rain. In all, about 30 people were injured at the stadium.

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   81degs.(72/90) or +3.

Month to date is   79.4[+2.0].        Should be    79.9[+2.3] by the 28th.

Reached 84 here yesterday 

Today:    83-86, wind ne., increasing clouds, 73 tomorrow AM.

74*(96%RH) here at 7am{ was 73 earlier}.      78* at 9am.       80* at 10am.      81* at 11am.      Back to  79* at Noon.       82* at 3pm.      84* at 4pm.       85* at 4:30pm-H.I. is 93.

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 80F yesterday. Currently 70F/DP 67/RH 90%.

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 72 and partly sunny.  Outside of some widely scattered showers, today looks mainly warm and humid.  Mid / upper 80s. Fri (7/21)  trough forces front through and next round of more widespread storms during the day.  Some strong storms potentially.  

Sat (7/22) - Tue (7/25)  overall drier and near normal before trough lifts or splits with strong heat coming east from the west and the expanding Western Atlantic ridge.  

Wed (7/26) strong heat into the region to end the month hot to potentially very hot.  Storms may still be around with position of edge o the ridge and very humid conditions and trough in and out with more storms at times.

 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Looks like an early morning line of storms tomorrow

[WestBabylonWeather]

I miss the low humidity of last summer. Minus the drought.


.

[psv88]

23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I miss the low humidity of last summer. Minus the drought.


.

Low humidity right now! Beautiful morning

[forkyfork]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like an early morning line of storms tomorrow

that's probably going to ruin any chances for later in the day

[Brian5671]

Both NAMS keep most of the storms W of NYC

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like an early morning line of storms tomorrow

 

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that's probably going to ruin any chances for later in the day

Looks like a repeat of yesterday 

[MANDA]

Nice improvement to Drought Monitor over the last month....EVEN FOR L.I.

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Looks like a repeat of yesterday 

Yep except it should be a more widespread significant rain in the morning tomorrow compared to what happened yesterday. A shame though that it will likely ruin the chance of seeing anything nice later in the afternoon. 

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward o the delightful weather this weekend a much needed break from the humidity...

[Dark Star]

17 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Agree. Nobody is giving up air travel, cars, boats, etc. but shockingly there are many against clean energy and renewables. I get it all the time in my field and don’t quite get it. 

Not sure if there have been in depth studies on renewables (i.e. Environmental Impact Studies)?  If this were 20 years ago, environmentalists would be protesting alongside the wind turbines for killing the oodles of birds including eagles!  How about the mining of the elements needed for car batteries?  What happens to the wind turbine fields after their lifespan is over?  We thought dams were clean energy, but now we are decomissioning a lot of them.  Something to ponder.  Proceed, but perhaps not with reckless abandon?

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice improvement to Drought Monitor over the last month....EVEN FOR L.I.

Shows the Nassau/W Suffolk screw zone, but there’s been some progress lately (the cutoff for data on that map is Tue mornings). 

[Gravity Wave]

My only comment on energy policy is that the continued aversion to nuclear power among large swathes of both environmentalists and the population at large is extremely frustrating.

[steve392]

37 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

My only comment on energy policy is that the continued aversion to nuclear power among large swathes of both environmentalists and the population at large is extremely frustrating.

I think it's the overall fear of "what if?" that keeps it from expanding all over.  

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

My only comment on energy policy is that the continued aversion to nuclear power among large swathes of both environmentalists and the population at large is extremely frustrating.

Roger stone made an incredible documentary on nuclear, it’s on Netflix and a must watch. Germany is decommissioning their last remaining plants to replace with bio fuels. Which right now means buying huge swaths of forrest from other countries to burn…

 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Not sure if there have been in depth studies on renewables (i.e. Environmental Impact Studies)?  If this were 20 years ago, environmentalists would be protesting alongside the wind turbines for killing the oodles of birds including eagles!  How about the mining of the elements needed for car batteries?  What happens to the wind turbine fields after there lifespan is over?  We thought dams were clean energy, but now we are decomissioning a lot of them.  Something to ponder.  Proceed, but perhaps not with reckless abandon?

There are plenty of studies about it. The birds being struck by wind turbines are a huge issue, but still more are killed each year by glass buildings and windows. As for batteries this is one I get a lot. Mining is rough on the environment for sure. But coal mining is even more damaging and since that is my background I can say that coal mining creating issues forever with acid mine drainage. At least with lithium and modern day recycling we can pretty much remanufacture a battery to near 100% battery health with minimal damage. Once you burn a mined or drilled fuel it is gone but the damage remains. A good few articles about EVs: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/life-cycle-emissions-of-electric-hybrid-and-combustion-engine-vehicles/ and https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2018/07/03/electric-vehicles-and-disinformation/?sh=230e5ec631e5. 
 

I don’t think anyone wants to proceed with reckless abandon. The one thing that really terrified me though is the solar blocking studies. Too much can go wrong there especially since we don’t even know everything about our atmosphere and currents. Until we can predict the weather more than 3 days out with high accuracy I’d rather not mess with solar input. 

[JustinRP37]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Roger stone made an incredible documentary on nuclear, it’s on Netflix and a must watch. Germany is decommissioning their last remaining plants to replace with bio fuels. Which right now means buying huge swaths of forrest from other countries to burn…

 

Oliver Stone. Roger Stone is a political consultant. Nuclear will make a great bridge fuel. As for biofuel we could do it with algae using diatoms. Some species can be up to 60% lipid which is oil. Very cool stuff because it burns like fossil oil and then recapture the CO2 to grow. Also switchgrass and ethanol production is not as easy as algae. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

My only comment on energy policy is that the continued aversion to nuclear power among large swathes of both environmentalists and the population at large is extremely frustrating.

Something worth considering, but there is no moratorium on building new facilities.  They had become very expensive to operate and still no actual place for long tern storage of the spent fuel.  I think Yucca mountain is still not open?  Then how does one transport nuclear waste across the country?  Truck, rail, plane?  What about Right To Know when transporting it?  Seems like an easy target for demented terrorists...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Oliver Stone. Roger Stone is a political consultant. Nuclear will make a great bridge fuel. As for biofuel we could do it with algae using diatoms. Some species can be up to 60% lipid which is oil. Very cool stuff because it burns like fossil oil and then recapture the CO2 to grow. Also switchgrass and ethanol production is not as easy as algae. 

Yeah I was just going back to make that correction. 

[nycwinter]

what a beautiful day did anyone expect dewpoints to be in the 50's in nyc..

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Something worth considering, but there is no moratorium on building new facilities.  They had become very expensive to operate and still no actual place for long tern storage of the spent fuel.  I think Yucca mountain is still not open?  Then how does one transport nuclear waste across the country?  Truck, rail, plane?  What about Right To Know when transporting it?  Seems like an easy target for demented terrorists...

Yucca was about to open in the mid 2000s then got spiked for environmental reasons.  I guess it was built on a fault line.

In the meantime, the waste material from Indian Point for example is stored at Indian Point, also on a fault line.  All nuclear power plants in the US store their waste on site which will be the case essentially for everyone's lifetime who are posting here now.  There is no solution for the waste.  

NYC traded Indian Point power for a damn project power plant in Canada and we are reliant ~20% on that now.  This is great, except the waste is still there on the fault.  Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Anyway, NYC is plugged in via extension cord under Lake George to our grid.  The Indians in the area of the damn claim the waters as some kind of ancestral lands, and there are already court cases about the project and water flow, and the native fish that the damn disturbs. Its just a matter of time before that gets shut down IMO and NY will not have a plan if the courts go against the project.  We have a lot of natural gas in this state, but we won't tap it.  Hell, it's illegal to add a natural gas line to a home that doesn't already have one in my county.  So I have to use electric for my stove and my furnace is oil.  I have few options.  I think this is a way to ensure the NY power projects get more business $$$ from electric heavy appliances as opposed to some environmental concern.  Otherwise oil furnaces would be banned.  Oil furnaces in new construction is a thing here.