July 2023

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

congrats LI.

We likey.

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

do any climate change deniers want to tell us that's not a heat signal? lol

it's the 200 hr plus GEFS and it's also the GEFS.  Any support from the big boy models?

[Brian5671]

Starting to clear out here-rain missed south which is fine by me.   76 degrees

[ForestHillWx]

Not sure why Forky is trolling. I thought 10 day maps are frowned upon in the winter?

It’s hot, humid and annoying. It’s summer in NJ. 

[forkyfork]

you guys are so sad this is going to happen lol

[Allsnow]

LI needed this 

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Not sure why Forky is trolling. I thought 10 day maps are frowned upon in the winter?

It’s hot, humid and annoying. It’s summer in NJ. 

why don't we get -2 julys anymore?

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Not sure why Forky is trolling. I thought 10 day maps are frowned upon in the winter?

It’s hot, humid and annoying. It’s summer in NJ. 

Good afternoon F H W. Possibly because it gets boring/lonely under the bridge. More probably its to instigate responses that could evolve into a relevant discussion. Stay well, as always …

[forkyfork]

do any of the "day 10 lol" people want to tell me which direction the errors have been going? more or less se ridging?

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Not sure why Forky is trolling. I thought 10 day maps are frowned upon in the winter?

It’s hot, humid and annoying. It’s summer in NJ. 

only if it's winter and it shows cold/snow in the summer it's ok even if none have verified to date....

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

.15 this morning 

.25 

[FPizz]

Just now, Allsnow said:

.25 

.02" here.  

[Tatamy]

Steady rain on Fire Island the past couple of hours.  0.23”

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

is everyone pretending this region isn't +2 or higher this month?

against the highest normals we've ever had

[psv88]

4th day in a row of rain. I am all set. 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

4th day in a row of rain. I am all set. 

completely waterlogged here-reminds me of August 2011 before Irene hit.

[Cfa]

0.00” here. 79/73 with some sun now.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you guys are so sad this is going to happen lol

 my body has been acclimated to the heat 95+ wont bother me..

[jm1220]

Maybe 0.05” here with this round but happy to see the south shore get the higher 0.4” type amounts. Slowly getting to normal in the ripped off areas. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

12 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

If the 1936 heat wave happened this year, can you imagine the political response? Or that scorcher at the end of August into September 1953? 

I'm seeing this warming climate as largely a bump up in overnight temperatures and a very slight increase, if any at all, in daytime readings. 

The main change is, we don't get those cooler spells with clear and very cool nights as often, and it takes some sort of major anomaly in the upper flow to create one at all. This seems to be the case all over the hemisphere and not just in the eastern U.S., people in the British Isles notice the same pattern, although relatively speaking, they seem to be getting more and more intense heat waves too. I don't think the records show that to be the case in North America. 

What some call global warming, I call global blanding. The frequency of bland weather patterns is certainly increasing. They tend to have quite warm nights and so-so daytime warmth. Now some believe that severe weather is increasing, I view it more as steady-state. You can cherry pick data either way to show it increasing or decreasing, but on the whole, I don't see obvious trends of increasing severe weather (excluding temperature related severe weather). For both hurricanes and tornados, the biggest outbreaks or events are often well back in the past. Of course one has to factor in improvements in forecasting and warnings, and public awareness. I would not want to mis-represent by throwing in death toll data from past events, not as many people would die today, especially if you removed population increases in the path of these most powerful events. But even so, flooding rainfalls, severe windstorms, tornado and hurricane -- none of these is really on the increase, and in fact you would expect them to decrease slightly if air mass contrast was less intense (as is obviously the case in the warmer climate). 

I think there are probably more forest fires in recent decades but perhaps a return to a reality which existed before, the anomalous period may have been something like 1950 to 1985 with fewer fires. When you read historical accounts of the 1910-1940 period in western regions, there were numerous references to thick smoky haze from forest fires. It has to be kept in mind that they did not attempt to suppress them back then. On the other hand, there were fewer severe fire seasons around the 1960s and 1970s. This modern era of frequent fires seems to have begun to ramp up in 1988, the year of widespread heat waves and the severe Yellowstone region fires. Some other bad western fire seasons were 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2018. 

A problem is separating out human caused fires from naturally occurring fires. Some of the human caused fires are deliberate arson, for various reasons including a desire to get work, a mental illness problem (for example, a desire for recognition, either directly as in an arrest, or indirectly as in people seeing the results, a forest on fire), or even a misguided political motive (accelerate the political process by producing the claimed results of global warming -- it happens, court cases prove it). Other human caused fires are accidental, at least to the extent that you can call tossing a butt into a dry forest an accident (to my mind it amounts to arson), or parking a very hot car engine over dry grass (then the person leaves, not realizing they have left behind a slowly spreading ground fire). Unattended campfires in windy weather can be a big problem also. 

 

If the 1936 heat wave occurred this year, Bastardi would be downplaying it by saying its not that hot on a per capita basis.

Looking at the actual data, July 1936, as a whole, was actually around or slightly below current July normals in most places where people actually lived. And outside of a one week intense heat wave, downright chilly (especially at night) compared to recent Julys. Funny how it was only hot in places where no one lived. I suspect this temperature pattern would not score highly on Bastardi's population density metric.

Toronto (downtown), Canada

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 79.6/58.6 Mean: 69.1F

Boston, Massachusetts

No heat wave to knock out, only a few discrete hot days scattered early-mid month.

New York, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 83.4/64.8 Mean: 74.1F

Buffalo, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 76.5/61.3 Mean: 68.9F

Rochester, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.9/59.0 Mean: 68.9F

Hartford, Connecticut

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.0/60.4 Mean: 70.7F

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 83.8/63.9 Mean: 73.8F

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/66.9 Mean: 75.1F

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.7/59.0 Mean: 70.3F

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 85.9/56.9 Mean: 71.4F

Erie, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.8/61.8 Mean: 70.3F

Washington, District of Columbia

Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 85.3/67.3 Mean: 76.3F

Hagerstown, Maryland

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/59.3 Mean: 71.4F

Baltimore, Maryland

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.0/67.9 Mean: 76.4F

Detroit, Michigan

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.6/58.9 Mean: 71.4F

Lansing, Michigan

 

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.2/56.2 Mean: 68.7F

Alpena, Michigan

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 80.9/48.0 Mean: 64.5F

Akron, Ohio

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 84.0/58.0 Mean: 70.9F

Toledo, Ohio

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.2/61.9 Mean: 72.1F

Morgantown, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.9/56.5 Mean: 71.2F

Elkins, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 80.7/57.3 Mean: 69.0F

Clarksburg, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 84.9/59.3 Mean: 72.1F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 77.0/63.7 Mean: 70.3F

Chicago, Illinois

Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 80.9/66.2 Mean: 73.5F

 

 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 0.05” here with this round but happy to see the south shore get the higher 0.4” type amounts. Slowly getting to normal in the ripped off areas. 

another round possible Friday.  I for one am hoping it misses here and gets you all...

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

If the 1936 heat wave occurred this year, Bastardi would be downplaying it by saying its not that hot on a per capita basis.

Looking at the actual data, July 1936, as a whole, was actually around or slightly below current July normals in most places where people actually lived. And outside of a one week intense heat wave, downright chilly (especially at night) compared to recent Julys. Funny how it was only hot in places where no one lived. I suspect this temperature pattern would not score highly on Bastardi's population density metric.

Toronto (downtown), Canada

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 79.6/58.6 Mean: 69.1F

Boston, Massachusetts

No heat wave to knock out, only a few discrete hot days scattered early-mid month.

New York, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 83.4/64.8 Mean: 74.1F

Buffalo, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 76.5/61.3 Mean: 68.9F

Rochester, New York

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.9/59.0 Mean: 68.9F

Hartford, Connecticut

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.0/60.4 Mean: 70.7F

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 83.8/63.9 Mean: 73.8F

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/66.9 Mean: 75.1F

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.7/59.0 Mean: 70.3F

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 85.9/56.9 Mean: 71.4F

Erie, Pennsylvania

Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.8/61.8 Mean: 70.3F

Washington, District of Columbia

Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 85.3/67.3 Mean: 76.3F

Hagerstown, Maryland

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/59.3 Mean: 71.4F

Baltimore, Maryland

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.0/67.9 Mean: 76.4F

Detroit, Michigan

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.6/58.9 Mean: 71.4F

Lansing, Michigan

 

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.2/56.2 Mean: 68.7F

Alpena, Michigan

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 80.9/48.0 Mean: 64.5F

Akron, Ohio

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 84.0/58.0 Mean: 70.9F

Toledo, Ohio

Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.2/61.9 Mean: 72.1F

Morgantown, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.9/56.5 Mean: 71.2F

Elkins, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 80.7/57.3 Mean: 69.0F

Clarksburg, West Virginia

Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 84.9/59.3 Mean: 72.1F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 77.0/63.7 Mean: 70.3F

Chicago, Illinois

Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 80.9/66.2 Mean: 73.5F

 

 

we get endless uhi posts whenever newark breaks a record but nobody mentions how we turned the entire great plains into a parking lot in the 30s

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

.25 

Not bad.

Like FPizz I got only a couple hundreths here. Last few days the heavier rain has been going through central Middlesex County and mostly missing the extreme northern part of the County. 

We move onto Friday. I don't think it looks as impressive as it did a few days ago, but certainly there will be some heavy downpours around. 

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

completely waterlogged here-reminds me of August 2011 before Irene hit.

Let's hope we don't experience that again.  Irene was bad here in nnj and ny state. 

[Roger Smith]

Two points about July (and August) 1936, the heat was definitely more persistent in the central plains than the eastern regions, but that week when the heat spread east was brutally hot and both daytime and overnight high min records were widespread. People were sleeping outdoors all over the affected regions for at least several consecutive nights to avoid heat prostration. No matter what the rest of the month felt like, that week would have prompted a major media and political response (back then it was just media, FDR had enough to do without trying to fix the weather). Also it was a year to year recurring pattern to some extent, every summer 1933 to 1937 had some brutal heat waves. 

The other point would be that many seem to think we caused the 1930s heat waves by poor agricultural practices in the great plains region. I doubt this is true (while I don't disagree there were poor practices). The atmosphere would have created those severe heat waves anyway, our contribution to it was probably on the order of the last degree possibly. (so 104/77 instead of 105/78 at Toronto for example). 

In the roundup of how locations fared relative to monthly normal, no normal was shown for Toronto but that monthly value was actually about 2F (or 1 C) above the 1901-30 average and slightly above more recent averages. July 1936 was t27 warmest of 183 years (with five other years, at 22.9 C) but obviously if the period July 7-14 had persisted all month it would have easily been warmest on record, which at this point is 25.5 C (1921) closely followed by 2021 (25.4 C). Those stats are all uncorrected for urban heat island but 1936 (reduced to 22.3) only moves up very slightly to t25 warmest in my estimates. Also it had a similar mean to several other July outcomes in the 1930s. Some of those months had longer hot spells but they were less intense. July 1932 was quite a cool month but all summers from about 1929 to 1941 had significant heat waves at some point, then 1942 had the very heavy rainfalls mid-July that Sacrus mentioned in his daily historical update. These were less extreme in Ontario but did set some daily records there too. Now there's another past weather event that would have been very volatile in today's political environment, 30.6" of rain in six hours! I have seen 6" of rain in six hours in Ontario (in Aug 1976 and from hugo's remnant low in Sep 1989) and it was pouring non-stop, cannot imagine five times as much falling. 

At NYC, July 1936 was very close to the overall median at t75 warmest out of 154. So relative to Toronto it had a cooler month. That also remains close to the median with u.h.i. adjustment (t75 again). Toronto ranks also improve by one (to t26, t24) in the same data set because a hot July in 1868 is dropped from the direct comparison (NYC began in 1869). The continental influence in this case was considerably stronger. Other summers with large variations in ranks include 1916, 1919, and 1921. But many years have very similar ranks at both locations. 

Anyone interested in seeing all this data can find it all here:

(our climate change forum, and also this link where excel files are posted, they are too large to fit here ...

https://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/2/

 

My feeling is, if 1911 and 1936 could produce multiple consecutive scorchers in the 101-110 range, then there's no reason to suppose that years like 1977, 1988 and 2012 (which you could argue were similar) represent the upper limit of what could be experienced in future years, and after the unprecedented heat dome hit my present location in June 2021, I am certainly well aware that previous upper limits can be not just edged out but pushed aside rather brutally. We had three days here that broke all-time previous records. Even without us heating up the atmosphere, natural variability can do the same and no doubt it will happen, sooner or later, that 1936 will have to step aside (a sobering thought). 

The whole point of the discussion (to call it a debate would be perhaps over-stating) is that we have not really worked out whether or not our modification of the atmosphere is creating different dynamics or just warming up the old dynamics. For example, the heat dome was basically a 599 dm high with 588 dm thicknesses acting like a magnifying glass over our region. Now the question is, without an advanced human economy present, would that have happened anyway, and stopped 1-2 F deg short without the added ghg, or did we add dm to those disturbing numbers? In 1936 I would imagine the upper dynamics were at least equal to those and probably a bit higher. I have read about nearly equal western heat waves way back in 1898 as well as 1941. So my hunch is, we are not creating these dynamics, we are just adding a bit of heat to them. Perhaps it's a bit of both. 

[SnoSki14]

We should easily get a string of 95+ days next week if current trends hold. 

100+ will be more difficult due to the rains this July vs last 

[lee59]

37 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Two points about July (and August) 1936, the heat was definitely more persistent in the central plains than the eastern regions, but that week when the heat spread east was brutally hot and both daytime and overnight high min records were widespread. People were sleeping outdoors all over the affected regions for at least several consecutive nights to avoid heat prostration. No matter what the rest of the month felt like, that week would have prompted a major media and political response (back then it was just media, FDR had enough to do without trying to fix the weather). Also it was a year to year recurring pattern to some extent, every summer 1933 to 1937 had some brutal heat waves. 

The other point would be that many seem to think we caused the 1930s heat waves by poor agricultural practices in the great plains region. I doubt this is true (while I don't disagree there were poor practices). The atmosphere would have created those severe heat waves anyway, our contribution to it was probably on the order of the last degree possibly. (so 104/77 instead of 105/78 at Toronto for example). 

In the roundup of how locations fared relative to monthly normal, no normal was shown for Toronto but that monthly value was actually about 2F (or 1 C) above the 1901-30 average and slightly above more recent averages. July 1936 was t27 warmest of 183 years (with five other years, at 22.9 C) but obviously if the period July 7-14 had persisted all month it would have easily been warmest on record, which at this point is 25.5 C (1921) closely followed by 2021 (25.4 C). Those stats are all uncorrected for urban heat island but 1936 (reduced to 22.3) only moves up very slightly to t25 warmest in my estimates. Also it had a similar mean to several other July outcomes in the 1930s. Some of those months had longer hot spells but they were less intense. July 1932 was quite a cool month but all summers from about 1929 to 1941 had significant heat waves at some point, then 1942 had the very heavy rainfalls mid-July that Sacrus mentioned in his daily historical update. These were less extreme in Ontario but did set some daily records there too. Now there's another past weather event that would have been very volatile in today's political environment, 30.6" of rain in six hours! I have seen 6" of rain in six hours in Ontario (in Aug 1976 and from hugo's remnant low in Sep 1989) and it was pouring non-stop, cannot imagine five times as much falling. 

At NYC, July 1936 was very close to the overall median at t75 warmest out of 154. So relative to Toronto it had a cooler month. That also remains close to the median with u.h.i. adjustment (t75 again). Toronto ranks also improve by one (to t26, t24) in the same data set because a hot July in 1868 is dropped from the direct comparison (NYC began in 1869). The continental influence in this case was considerably stronger. Other summers with large variations in ranks include 1916, 1919, and 1921. But many years have very similar ranks at both locations. 

Anyone interested in seeing all this data can find it all here:

(our climate change forum, and also this link where excel files are posted, they are too large to fit here ...

https://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/2/

 

My feeling is, if 1911 and 1936 could produce multiple consecutive scorchers in the 101-110 range, then there's no reason to suppose that years like 1977, 1988 and 2012 (which you could argue were similar) represent the upper limit of what could be experienced in future years, and after the unprecedented heat dome hit my present location in June 2021, I am certainly well aware that previous upper limits can be not just edged out but pushed aside rather brutally. We had three days here that broke all-time previous records. Even without us heating up the atmosphere, natural variability can do the same and no doubt it will happen, sooner or later, that 1936 will have to step aside (a sobering thought). 

The whole point of the discussion (to call it a debate would be perhaps over-stating) is that we have not really worked out whether or not our modification of the atmosphere is creating different dynamics or just warming up the old dynamics. For example, the heat dome was basically a 599 dm high with 588 dm thicknesses acting like a magnifying glass over our region. Now the question is, without an advanced human economy present, would that have happened anyway, and stopped 1-2 F deg short without the added ghg, or did we add dm to those disturbing numbers? In 1936 I would imagine the upper dynamics were at least equal to those and probably a bit higher. I have read about nearly equal western heat waves way back in 1898 as well as 1941. So my hunch is, we are not creating these dynamics, we are just adding a bit of heat to them. Perhaps it's a bit of both. 

 

 First let me say I believe our climate is getting more mild, the facts show it. However, I agree, most times when some extreme weather event happens it always goes back to climate change, like extreme events never happened before.

[JustinRP37]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We should easily get a string of 95+ days next week if current trends hold. 

100+ will be more difficult due to the rains this July vs last 

I think it is going to be tough to break 95-100 for the same reason we don’t see 100s in Florida often. The humidity is ridiculously high, which does tend to limit the high temperatures. I am very confused though by people saying this summer is not “hot”. It has been a very warm July statistically. June was cooler than the new normals, but around average from total historic temps. I am always boggled as an environmental scientist when people claim humans have no impact on climate. I always explain to my students, look around. Go back 100 years and you were lucky to see people owning one car per family. Now look at the world. We have gone from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today, and everyone uses petroleum. It has 100% improved our living conditions like nobody could have every predicted, but it does come at a cost. As for those against biofuels and renewables, I don’t understand at all. Clean energy is just smart and will be cheaper. Former Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said the main reason they invest in biofuels is because it would be amazing to control their own fuel and not have to hope a war won’t break out. And then he mentioned all the great environmental stats from it. 

 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think it is going to be tough to break 95-100 for the same reason we don’t see 100s in Florida often. The humidity is ridsly high, which does tend to limit the high temperatures. I am very confused though by people saying this summer is not “hot”. It has been a very warm July statistically. June was cooler than the new normals, but around average from total historic temps. I am always boggled as an environmental scientist when people claim humans have no impact on climate. I always explain to my students, look around. Go back 100 years and you were lucky to see people owning one car per family. Now look at the world. We have gone from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today, and everyone uses petroleum. It has 100% improved our living conditions like nobody could have every predicted, but it does come at a cost. As for those against biofuels and renewables, I don’t understand at all. Clean energy is just smart and will be cheaper. Former Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said the main reason they invest in biofuels is because it would be amazing to control their own fuel and not have to hope a war won’t break out. And then he mentioned all the great environmental stats from it. 

 

I don't know why anyone would be against clean energy. I think what people are saying is we have to keep using oil until we can sustain some kind of life style that people will except, without it.

[CIK62]

9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging    80degs.(72/88) or +2.

Month to date is    79.6[+2.3].        Should be    79.7[+2.2] by the 27th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:   78-82, wind variable, cloudy, Rain 4pm?, 72 tomorrow AM.

73*(85%RH) here at 7am.      72* at Noon.        79* at 3pm.        82* at 4pm.     83* at 4:30pm(H.I. of 90)    84* at 5pm.