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July 2023


Stormlover74
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9 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Stop following off hour runs of the HRRR guys

Yeah the 18z run did a good job while the later runs moved it too far north. That shouldn't happen with a highly skilled very short range model, but we know that the HRRR is very erratic at times. 

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46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the 18z run did a good job while the later runs moved it too far north. That shouldn't happen with a highly skilled very short range model, but we know that the HRRR is very erratic at times. 

Exactly , the 18z absolutely nailed the earlier convection, granted it was a tiny bit south with the line but that's expected... Tiny storm(around 5pm) set up a prominent outflow boundary in the area. 

Unfortunately we just have timing issues, just like Monday this weekend could've been a significant outbreak for our area if the timing was right

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The next 8 days are averaging    82degs.(73/91) or +5.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   84-89, wind w., variable clouds, Rain by 9pm., 74 by tomorrow AM.

75*(90%RH) here at 7am{was 74 at 6am}     77* at 9am.       80* at 11am.     84* at Noon.      down to 81* at 1pm.     up to  90* at 6pm.

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8 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

my new place in New Brunswick is on the 15th floor and i’m not used to this wind

Good morning Will. Congratulations and good fortune in the new home. It can’t be pleasant when the atmosphere passes wind. Stay well, as always ….

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3 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Will. Congratulations and good fortune in the new home. It can’t be pleasant when the atmosphere passes wind. Stay well, as always ….

thank you my friend.  if you gentlemen could see this view i think you’d be jealous.  cannot wait for the next big SVR.  i can see for miles and miles.

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39 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Wtf...now thunderstorms  likely for the 4th? Those mid range models need to be tossed. Theyve been awful for months now. Seems like every forecast 3-5 days out changes by the time we get to 24 hours

Terrible. 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Wtf...now thunderstorms  likely for the 4th? Those mid range models need to be tossed. Theyve been awful for months now. Seems like every forecast 3-5 days out changes by the time we get to 24 hours

Most of the day is rain free though....and not everyone will get one.   Classic summertime weather.

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Most of the day is rain free though....and not everyone will get one.   Classic summertime weather.

Upton bullish on coverage Tuesday afternoon/evening

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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

thank you my friend.  if you gentlemen could see this view i think you’d be jealous.  cannot wait for the next big SVR.  i can see for miles and miles.

Yeah I have a miles long view down the hill to my east. Looking out at the backside of storms as they pass me can be pretty awesome and looking at clear skies as a storm/front move over is kickass. 

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80/70 partly cloudy warm humid and scattered storms today.  The fourth should see cloudy to partly cloudy skies with storms clearing in the afternoon and only isolated storms after that.  Some places hit 90 yesterday with the breaks in clouds and the same today where and when the sun stay out with very hot airmass suorrounding the area wit 850s >18c.  Fourth the same places mid / upper 80s and some touch 90 to continue or start a potential heatwave.  Wed (7/5) and Thu (7/6) hot, humid upper 80s near or low 90s and some spots with their first heatwave or beyond.  Fri (7/7) and the weekend look similar to this past few days warm, humid and chances for storms in this tropical style pattern.   Trough into the north east with south westerly keeping it war but potentially freqent storms.

7/12 and the way beyond, - overall warm humid and the wester atlantic ridge expanding west - if it backs far enough its longer and hotter ahead if it stays it'll remain the block to keep us in the weakness and boundary of the front - warm and stormy.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Wtf...now thunderstorms  likely for the 4th? Those mid range models need to be tossed. Theyve been awful for months now. Seems like every forecast 3-5 days out changes by the time we get to 24 hours

Models were showing that consistently outside the GFS.  Energy remains in the weakness moves through tomorrow afternoon.  I think any (scattered) storms are done by 2 and anything beyond there is very isolated . 

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Models were showing that consistently outside the GFS.  Energy remains in the weakness moves through tomorrow afternoon.  I think any (scattered) storms are done by 2 and anything beyond there is very isolated . 

Upton has the storms generally from 2-8 for the island…not finished by 2

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