Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

July 2023


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

Parts of the region saw excessive rainfall that produced flash flooding. Bay Shore picked up 6.15" of rain. Rainfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Bridgeport: 1.45" (old record: 0.93", 1984)
Hartford: 1.53" (old record: 1.33", 1910)
Islip: 4.63" (old record: 1.22", 1989) ***Hourly rainfall of 3.04" was the 2nd highest on record and a once-in-100-year event***
Manchester: 2.44" (old record: 1.30", 1961)
New York City-La Guardia Airport: 1.38" (old record: 1.19", 1947)
Newark: 1.48" (old record: 1.22", 1933)
Providence: 2.08" (old record: 0.85", 1910)

In the wake of the heavy rainfall, a dry but very warm day lies ahead to start the work week. Readings will approach to top 90° in many locations across the region.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.035 today.

On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the region saw excessive rainfall that produced flash flooding. Bay Shore picked up 6.15" of rain. Rainfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Bridgeport: 1.45" (old record: 0.93", 1984)
Hartford: 1.53" (old record: 1.33", 1910)
Islip: 4.63" (old record: 1.22", 1989) ***Hourly rainfall of 3.04" was the 2nd highest on record and a once-in-100-year event***
Manchester: 2.44" (old record: 1.30", 1961)
New York City-La Guardia Airport: 1.38" (old record: 1.19", 1947)
Newark: 1.48" (old record: 1.22", 1933)
Providence: 2.08" (old record: 0.85", 1910)

In the wake of the heavy rainfall, a dry but very warm day lies ahead to start the work week. Readings will approach to top 90° in many locations across the region.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.035 today.

On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

As always, greatly appreciate your data. I trust your info, but I’m curious about the Bay Shore total of 6.15”. Only because I live in Brightwaters, right next to Bay Shore, and while we had good totals, I don’t think it was that much. How was it reported? Thx in advance 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

July is shaping up like 2016/ 2020 warm and wet.

Actually, the models tonight are trending dramatically warmer overall. Yes there's still the cooler stretch from July 21-23 but after that the models warm but all go in somewhat different directions. The CMC is the drier solution with the warm up to possibly hot conditions while the GFS positions HP too far north off of the Atlantic seaboard with a southeasterly fetch and tons of moisture for a day or two before another weak cold front passes through and we turn hot. But then it spins up a hurricane off of the southeast coast. The most dramatic change however was on the GEFS which develops a ridge stretching from Spain and Portugal westward into the Pacific and pretty much the entire CONUS is under an enormous ridge which would probably signal heat if it were correct.

WX/PT

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging    81degs.(72/90) or +3.

Moth to date is   79.5[+2.3].       Should be   80.0[+2.5] by the 25th.

Reached 82 yesterday.

Today:    86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 75 tomorrow AM.

75*(98%RH) here at 7am{ was 74 earlier}.     79* at 9am.     80* at 10am.     83* at 11am.       82* at Noon.    83* at 1pm.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Actually, the models tonight are trending dramatically warmer overall. Yes there's still the cooler stretch from July 21-23 but after that the models warm but all go in somewhat different directions. The CMC is the drier solution with the warm up to possibly hot conditions while the GFS positions HP too far north off of the Atlantic seaboard with a southeasterly fetch and tons of moisture for a day or two before another weak cold front passes through and we turn hot. But then it spins up a hurricane off of the southeast coast. The most dramatic change however was on the GEFS which develops a ridge stretching from Spain and Portugal westward into the Pacific and pretty much the entire CONUS is under an enormous ridge which would probably signal heat if it were correct.

WX/PT

No sings of real heat for the next two weeks

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2023 9.15 15
2 2016 6.98 2
3 2021 6.72 1
4 2018 6.12 0
5 2009 5.65 1


 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1916 12.41 0
2 1969 12.15 0
3 1925 11.66 0
4 2004 11.37 0
5 1889 9.30 0
6 2023 8.84 15
7 1952 8.60 0
8 2017 8.45 0
9 1912 8.34 0
10 1873 8.32 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1984 8.36 0
2 1969 7.67 0
3 1996 6.55 0
4 2009 6.52 0
5 2007 6.50 0
6 1992 6.20 0
7 2023 6.00 15
8 2006 5.46 0
9 2020 5.15 0
10 2021 5.12 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.7 0
2 2022 82.6 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2023 81.0 15
7 2013 80.9 0
8 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
9 2019 80.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81.6 0
2 2020 81.5 0
3 2019 81.4 0
4 2012 81.2 2
5 2010 81.1 2
6 2002 80.9 0
7 2023 80.7 15
- 2013 80.7 0
8 2011 80.5 3
9 2016 79.8 0
10 2018 79.4 0
- 2006 79.4 0
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

74/73. Fog is starting to burn off here and already cleared in some places.  Warm and humid today with upper 80s low 90s in the warm spots perhaps a stray 94,95 in the hot spots.  Tue (7/18) warm and humid more haze (smoke) and scattered storms in the PM.  Where and when the sun is out it will warm up quickly and pending on how much could see mid 80s or near 90.  Storms in the PM some more soakers.  Wed (7/19) - Thu (7/20) warm and more isolated storms with the stronger heat staying south and recent rains temps likely capped in the 80s.  

Fri (7/21) more widespread storms with a deep south/southwesterly flow before front clears for the weekend.   The western ridge anchored with trough into the NE/GL and an expanding western atlatnic ridge will keep boundary near by next weekend before height rise so warm and humid with more storm chances through the 23/24. Period 7/21 - 7/24 looks near or below with clouds and stronger heat south.

7/25th and beyond heights rising into the area as the W/ Atl Ridge sets up off the coast and a warm to how sw flow.  The western atlantic ridge will push stronger heat into the east at times reaching into the Northeast.  The end of the month looks hot as the nation is very warm and stronger heat pushing into the GL and heading east.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I don’t know about real heat, but it would be nice to have a brief reprieve from the real dews!

Have to wait until this weekend, Sunday, for a brief drop of the DPs into the 50s.  Might get a brief drop on Wed too, all short lived though.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2023 9.15 15
2 2016 6.98 2
3 2021 6.72 1
4 2018 6.12 0
5 2009 5.65 1


 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1916 12.41 0
2 1969 12.15 0
3 1925 11.66 0
4 2004 11.37 0
5 1889 9.30 0
6 2023 8.84 15
7 1952 8.60 0
8 2017 8.45 0
9 1912 8.34 0
10 1873 8.32 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1984 8.36 0
2 1969 7.67 0
3 1996 6.55 0
4 2009 6.52 0
5 2007 6.50 0
6 1992 6.20 0
7 2023 6.00 15
8 2006 5.46 0
9 2020 5.15 0
10 2021 5.12 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.7 0
2 2022 82.6 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2023 81.0 15
7 2013 80.9 0
8 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
9 2019 80.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81.6 0
2 2020 81.5 0
3 2019 81.4 0
4 2012 81.2 2
5 2010 81.1 2
6 2002 80.9 0
7 2023 80.7 15
- 2013 80.7 0
8 2011 80.5 3
9 2016 79.8 0
10 2018 79.4 0
- 2006 79.4 0

Thanks for posting MGJ, it’s been an incredible stretch in this neck of the woods for the past several weeks, seems like if we don’t bullseye we’re damn close each event. 18.82” IMBY over the last month.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this is the first weekend this summer that my extended forecast does not have rain showers in the forecast 

 

8 weekends gone already and most to crappy clouds and showers...awful beach season

 

 

it's been alot of weekend day washouts going back to late April.  Bad luck there

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Thanks for posting MGJ, it’s been an incredible stretch in this neck of the woods for the past several weeks, seems like if we don’t bullseye we’re damn close each event. 18.82” IMBY over the last month.

Nearly 20” at West Point over the last 30 days.

 

Data for June 18, 2023 through July 17, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NY WEST POINT COOP 19.07
NY SHRUB OAK COOP 16.66
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 14.11
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13.32
NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 12.49
NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.90
NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.83
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 11.67
NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 11.67
NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 11.00
NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 10.98
NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.66
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10.65
NY CARMEL 4N COOP 10.53
CT GUILFORD COOP 10.33
NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this is the first weekend this summer that my extended forecast does not have rain showers in the forecast 

 

8 weekends gone already and most to crappy clouds and showers...awful beach season

 

 

was lucky to have mostly rain free Jul 1/2 Jul 8/9 down in NJ shore.  From Jun 29 - Jul 14 only rain was jul 13 (am) . Jul 9, Jul 4 (10 min shower). Was great stretch and waters were in the mid - upper 70s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

As always, greatly appreciate your data. I trust your info, but I’m curious about the Bay Shore total of 6.15”. Only because I live in Brightwaters, right next to Bay Shore, and while we had good totals, I don’t think it was that much. How was it reported? Thx in advance 

The Bay Shore figure came from the NWS's local storm report.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...