Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: That cell is missing me to the south, but it looks close for you. Thunder getting louder currently. I think we will get lots of rain the next two days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 BN next Saturday? 5830m is Normal. Meanwhile Red Army reinforcements are approaching right now. Can they make it into the City.....................? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thunder getting louder currently. I think we will get lots of rain the next two days Warning canceled. But I’ll take the rain. .46 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 hour ago, dWave said: Doesn't even look like the sea breeze is limiting temps very much. Ocean temps are in the upper 70s. It won’t do much anymore other than add humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Warning canceled. But I’ll take the rain. .46 so far Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 cell just blow up in far northern jersey i hear the thunder from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. Really blowing up around mercer and somerset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, CIK62 said: BN next Saturday? 5830m is Normal. Meanwhile Red Army reinforcements are approaching right now. Can they make it into the City.....................? Yeah the models have a nice airmass coming in next weekend. Could be a few days of lower humidity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. Up To .55 so far…I think we add to that before the day is over. Storms moving north now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Up To .55 so far…I think we add to that before the day is over. Storms moving north now Over a inch being reported now in south Edison and near New Brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Really blowing up around mercer and somerset For days the Euro model kept insisting today would be dry, but obviously it was wrong. The RGEM did a good job the last few days showing a little more activity for today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: For days the Euro model kept insisting today would be dry, but obviously it was wrong. The RGEM did a good job the last few days showing a little more activity for today. I thought today would be more isolated as well. Now watch we'll get nothing tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I thought today would be more isolated as well. Now watch we'll get nothing tomorrow Yeah you never know with summer convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Over a inch being reported now in south Edison and near New Brunswick Just getting into some action from that cell. Moderate rain here with thunder in the distance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 About to get crushed here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: About to get crushed here again I really can't tell which direction the storms are moving...seems like ENE but also lifting to the north Don't think it's making it to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: About to get crushed here again Looks like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I really can't tell which direction the storms are moving...seems like ENE but also lifting to the north Don't think it's making it to me Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Looks as if Allsnow is about to get hit, but we might be more on the edge of it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 This is a view of the convection complex that has been hammering central NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Looks as if Allsnow is about to get hit, but we might be more on the edge of it up here. Lol people are asking me if they should cancel tonight's party. It doesn't get going til 8 so I think we're fine by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Lol people are asking me if they should cancel tonight's party. It doesn't get going til 8 so I think we're fine by then Yeah it should be cleared out by then. I don't care if I don't start our cookout until 7. It can be a late night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like it Dumping 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it should be cleared out by then. I don't care if I don't start our cookout until 7. It can be a late night. Neighbors are hosting a party for 50+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Moderate rain here right now. The Heavy stuff missing just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Dumping Flood warning. Storm is just parked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Neighbors are hosting a party for 50+ I hope the 50+ year olds can swim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 .07" missed to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Flood warning. Storm is just parked Over a inch and counting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152127Z - 160030Z Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is likely. Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to 3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the NYC metro into this evening. SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past week. This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152127Z - 160030Z Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is likely. Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to 3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the NYC metro into this evening. SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past week. This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday. Latest run of HRRR says it's gonna completely fall apart before NYC, but then again this HRRR run didn't get the heavy rain amounts far enough east into Middlesex County. It'll be interesting to see if it makes it to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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