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Stormlover74
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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Warning canceled. But I’ll take the rain. .46 so far 

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

Really blowing up around mercer and somerset 

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20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

BN next Saturday?       5830m is Normal.

naefs_2023071500_ne_anom_gh_500_186.png

Meanwhile Red Army reinforcements are approaching right now.     Can they make it into the City.....................?

1689450960-8Uw3hBkdj1c.png

Yeah the models have a nice airmass coming in next weekend. Could be a few days of lower humidity. 

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

Up To .55 so far…I think we add to that before the day is over. Storms moving north now 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

For days the Euro model kept insisting today would be dry, but obviously it was wrong. The RGEM did a good job the last few days showing a little more activity for today. 

I thought today would be more isolated as well. Now watch we'll get nothing tomorrow 

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I really can't tell which direction the storms are moving...seems like ENE but also lifting to the north 

Don't think it's making it to me

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Looks as if Allsnow is about to get hit, but we might be more on the edge of it up here. 

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Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152127Z - 160030Z

Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread
northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may
remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell
mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW
to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to
backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to
3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this
activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this
activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the
NYC metro into this evening.

SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east
while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample
moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern
that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ
which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley
which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past
week.

This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis
that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which
brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday.

 

 

mcd0739.gif

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:
Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152127Z - 160030Z

Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread
northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may
remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell
mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW
to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to
backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to
3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this
activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this
activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the
NYC metro into this evening.

SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east
while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample
moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern
that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ
which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley
which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past
week.

This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis
that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which
brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday.

 

 

mcd0739.gif

Latest run of HRRR says it's gonna completely fall apart before NYC, but then again this HRRR run didn't get the heavy rain amounts far enough east into Middlesex County. It'll be interesting to see if it makes it to NYC. 

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