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Stormlover74
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[mention=17237]WestBabylonWeather[/mention]you must be rocking right now. I can hear the thunder from brightwaters. Gonna miss me unfortunately 

Yes indeed

I was on southern edge but got in on action

Intense down pour. Rate of 1.5 inch an hour we got .5 inch total as per ambient weather backyard station


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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:


Yes indeed

I was on southern edge but got in on action

Intense down pour. Rate of 1.5 inch an hour we got .5 inch total as per ambient weather backyard station


.

Congrats. Literally missed me by three blocks. Futility remains 

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A warm and humid weekend is likely. Additional rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday. The potential exists for excessive rainfall that could produce flooding.

An extreme heat event is underway in the Southwest. As of 4 pm, MST, Phoenix has reached 116° today. That tied the daily record which had been set in 2003. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings rise toward record daily levels. Las Vegas could challenge its monthly and all-time record. Death Valley could approach or reach 130°, which is the highest temperature ever reliably recorded. The excessive heat could extend across parts of California, Nevada, New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -1.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.707 today.

On July 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.987 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.941 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

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Another weather event to add to the historial weather file, on this night in 1995, after a day of record heat, a derecho suddenly formed over south central Ontario. At 0100h EDT (July 15) there was nothing on the map but a dry windshift line near southeast Georgian Bay to west of Toronto. By 0200h storms had formed along that boundary and by 0300h a full-blown derecho with embedded F2 tornado was bearing down on my former home location of Lakefield, Ontario which is northeast of Peterborough. It was so hot that I had not fallen asleep and became aware of continuous lightning west of the town at 0250h. By 0300h a severe gust front had blown in with what appeared to be 80 mph gusts, large trees were bending precariously and the continual lightning and thunder was unlike any previous severe storm in my experience. It took abut half an hur for this to blow through and I believe the derecho persisted through the night and following day into eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and upstate NY and New England. The next day we became aware of tornado damage in a streak that ended about 3 miles southwest of my location, and that tornado did considerable damage around Stony Lake north of Peterborough. Family members who were camping 100 miles north of us said they had also had a severe storm at 0300h and had abandoned a tent for the relative safety of a car, so it was quite the line squall and as far as I could determine, entirely unpredicted and not well shown on existing guidance (it was thought that the hot, dry spell would continue without the minor detail of the worst severe storm to hit Ontario since the May 31 1985 F4 tornado in Barrie. That one also continued on to near Peterborough and also lifted off the ground 3 miles from my residence (which was then in Peterborough.

Not often you see continuous lightning, it's quite the thing. We were very lucky our house was not blown apart by that storm. (added trivia, calendar same for 1995 and 2023, as any 28 years without a missing leap year like 1900 will work out to same calendar dates, so the storm was on a Friday night.)

 

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Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possibLe
 
LOL
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