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Stormlover74
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

3K NAM gets many tonight.  However the 12K NAM is north of I84

nam3km_apcpn_neus_5.png

Definitely not going to rain on the island tonight unfortunately. Current radar supports 12k, but well north of I84. POPs drop with each update for the next few days. We’re desperate out here 

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11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Wow, where is all this warm water coming from, air temperatures the last 3 months are not even averaging  70 yet water temps are far higher. Maybe the lack of offshore storms not stirring up the deeper colder waters?

I posted about the earlier, but it’s a launch pad issue. If your no cooling water temps in the winter, the second full inclination hits it’s off to the races. 

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Tomorrow could be briefly cooler due to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas that saw flooding from the recent heavy rainfall could be at risk of additional flooding. The risk is particularly high in Vermont overnight into tomorrow. A warm and humid weekend is likely. Additional rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday.

An extreme heat event is underway in the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings rise toward record daily levels. Las Vegas could challenge its monthly and all-time record. Death Valley could approach or reach 130°, which is the highest temperature ever reliably recorded. The excessive heat could extend across parts of California, Nevada, New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

Meanwhile, Marathon, FL saw the mercury top out at 99° today. That tied the all-time record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +4.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.747 today.

On July 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.907 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.018 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I posted about the earlier, but it’s a launch pad issue. If your no cooling water temps in the winter, the second full inclination hits it’s off to the races. 

Sea temperature

It may play a part but I don't think it has made that much difference. Average NYC January water temperature is 41.4Tides

Average water temperature in New York City in January over a decade

Average January temperature over a decade

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
39.7°F 39.9°F 42.6°F 42.3°F 39.6°F
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
41.4°F 42.6°F 41.7°F 41.9°F 41.7°
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3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Sea temperature

It may play a part but I don't think it has made that much difference. Average NYC January water temperature is 41.4Tides

Average water temperature in New York City in January over a decade

Average January temperature over a decade

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
39.7°F 39.9°F 42.6°F 42.3°F 39.6°F
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
41.4°F 42.6°F 41.7°F 41.9°F 41.7°

If the pattern changes to one with stronger offshore flow the waters will cool down from upwelling. I’m sure 100 feet down or less the waters are much colder and would up well to the surface with a pattern conducive to that. The pattern has supported a hot western Atlantic for some time due to the WAR on roids over the “winter” up to now. 

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56 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the pattern changes to one with stronger offshore flow the waters will cool down from upwelling. I’m sure 100 feet down or less the waters are much colder and would up well to the surface with a pattern conducive to that. The pattern has supported a hot western Atlantic for some time due to the WAR on roids over the “winter” up to now. 

The water temperature that amazes me is apparently 98 degrees off south Florida. I wonder how deep the water was where that was taken.

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Whatever happened to the people saying this summer would be lucky to see 5-10 90 degree days? One thing I've learned lately is to never underestimate the torch! Also kind of weird to see so many on LI wanting more rain, whereas here in the Hudson Valley everything is still near or above flood stage. Pretty crazy driving around the past few days seeing roads washed out, like completely gone. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll gladly take any of the rain over the next few months. But summers are usually favored for inland areas to get rain anyway and this summer is an extreme example. VT is getting drenched again tonight. LI is still entirely in a drought according to the map released this AM, and June precip was well below average east of the city. Another month of this if we heat up as some progs are saying and we’ll be in severe drought. Grounds that aren’t watered every day here are burnt/dying. 

Yeah it is just crazy how such a short drive makes such a difference. Even through Putnam and Dutchess Counties. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll gladly take any of the rain over the next few months. But summers are usually favored for inland areas to get rain anyway and this summer is an extreme example. VT is getting drenched again tonight. LI is still entirely in a drought according to the map released this AM, and June precip was well below average east of the city. Another month of this if we heat up as some progs are saying and we’ll be in severe drought. Grounds that aren’t watered every day here are burnt/dying. 

Just like last summer my lawn is turning brown and crunchy. Yesterday my forecast was a good chance of rain tonight now it's down to almost nothing. Same old story.

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