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July 2023


Stormlover74
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49 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

Yeah it’s been incredible. Normally we may get a few days like this in august, but not July. I think the fact that our winter water temps never get that cold anymore is a big factor. Because it’s not like we have had any real heat. At this rate we will make low 80s at some point in august. 

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The very warm weather will continue through tomorrow. Friday could be briefly cooler due to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas that saw flooding from the recent heavy rainfall could be at risk of additional flooding. A warm and humid weekend is likely.

An extreme heat event is now developing in the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings rise toward record daily levels. Las Vegas could challenge is monthly and all-time record. Death Valley could approach or reach 130°, which is the highest temperature ever reliably recorded. The excessive heat could extend across parts of California, Nevada, New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +5.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.558 today.

On July 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.020 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.244 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

I was at Long Beach, LI on Sat and the sports watch I was wearing was saying 78 - 79 water temp. Felt remarkably warmer then a couple weeks before. Once we got into the persistent high humidity stretch with onshore flow they took off. They say saying we are nearing 40 - 50% of the world's ocean in marine heat wave status. FL been setting records with water temps well into the 90s, and 97 around the Keys. I've swam in upper 80s to just around 90, I can't imagine upper 90s water temps.

Pushing 80 here before Aug and without the help of an intense heat wave is impressive.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, dWave said:

I was at Long Beach, LI on Sat and the sports watch I was wearing was saying 78 - 79 water temp. Felt remarkably warmer then a couple weeks before. Once we got into the persistent high humidity stretch with onshore flow they took off. They say saying we are nearing 40 - 50% of the world's ocean in marine heat wave status. FL been setting records with water temps well into the 90s, and 97 around the Keys. I've swam in upper 80s to just around 90, I can't imagine upper 90s water temps.

Pushing 80 here before Aug and without the help of an intense heat wave is impressive.

 

 

The waters to our south are all well above average, and constant southerly/onshore flow helps warm the waters up fast. Jones Beach water temp has been 77-79 degrees  the past two days. That’s insane-the average highest water temp for the year is a month from now and 73-74. July is usually around 70. 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bring on winter

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

The arctic has actually had a fairly cool summer.    Agree on water temps though-they have kept us warm last few years...

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

There is more Arctic sea ice than 9 of the last 12 years and maybe those warming ocean temperatures can combine with some cold air to produce some good nor'easters.

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The next 8 days are averaging     81degs.(74/89) or +3.

Reached 90 briefly at 3:15pm yesterday, before sea breeze cooled it to 85.

Today:  86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 76 tomorrow AM.

76*(83%RH) here at 7am.      80* at 9am.       81*/82* at Noon.      80* at 3pm.     81* at 4pm.      82* at 5pm.      Reached 83* at 7pm.

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17 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

I grew up surfing as a teen all summer in SSP. I don’t ever remember water temps in the 70’s in July, that was more an August thing. And I recall like 70-73 max. 78 is stupid warm for 40n Atlantic coast IMO. 

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