July 2023

[SnoSki14]

Sunday looks like a flooding day

[Rtd208]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sunday looks like a flooding day

Yeah Sunday looks like the "main show" especially during the afternoon and evening but there could be additional heavy rain/storms Saturday and Monday as well. 

[Rtd208]

Day 3 excessive rainfall. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on the day 2 outlook.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Goodbye smoke, hello sweat. 

 

[Allsnow]

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

If the 00z GFS is right there will be widespread 2-4" rainfall amounts across the region in the Saturday thru Monday timeframe. Maybe even locally higher amounts.

All the action will be in eastern Pa until Sunday afternoon 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   80degs.(72/88) or +2.

Reached 87 yesterday at 7pm.

Today:  83-86, wind e. to s., variable clouds, 74 tomorrow AM.

77*(90%RH) at 7am{was 75 at midnight}.    79* at 9am.        80* at Noon.       83* at 3pm.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Day 3 excessive rainfall. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on the day 2 outlook.

Models have the rain focusing on NJ, upstate and E PA just like the last 2 weeks while we keep drying out. Woo hoo. I guess the models are finally getting smart and giving up on drenching east of the city. If we’re also going into a hot pattern, east of the city will probably be  in severe drought in several weeks. Lawns already look terrible that aren’t getting watered. 

[winterwarlock]

14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Still mowing? Happy you’re getting the weather you love 

Yes...doing much better compared to last year

[SACRUS]

 

77/71 and some low clouds .  Warm and high humidity and pending on when the clouds burn off will see if we touch 90 in many areas or more stray 90.  Similar tomorrow with humid, warm conditions and scattered storms in the evening.  Sun (7/9) more widespread storms and potential soaker (>2 inches for many) lingering into Mon (7/10) a trough and front move through.

By Tue (7/11) its warming again, continued humid and next shot at 90s.  Wed (7/12) and Thu (7/13) wil see a very warm airmass move through but more scattered storm, with enough sun could push mid 90s.  

 

Fri (7/14) and beyond, overall warm, humid and continued storm reoccurring.  The western rockies ridge is pumping spurts of heat east and with enough elevated heights and potential Western Atlantic Ridge enhancement, it could mean a hot to very hot last part of the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 (2010)


Lows:

 

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 56 (1914)
LGA: 59 (1972)

 

Historical:

 

1905 - The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, AZ, to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. (The Weather Channel)

1915 - A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship Dick Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes in Colorado, and three in West Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Bula, TX. In the midst of a record thirty-nine day string of 100 degree days, the temperature at Tucson, AZ, dipped to 66 degrees, marking their third straight record low for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown, OH, hit 100 degrees, and for the second day in a row, Flint, MI, reached 101 degrees, equalling all-time records for those two cities. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather during the day, with more than 100 reports of large hail and damaging winds from Ohio to Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Thunderstorm winds reached 90 mph in Sullivan County, NH, and golf ball size hail was reported in Pennsylvania. Twenty-four cities, mostly in the southwestern U.S., reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Cedar City, UT, and 114 degrees at Moab, UT, were all-time records for those locations. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City.

[BxEngine]

Perfect morning at the shore. Now i just gotta find a wawa and a 7/11 slushie on my way home and my day will be complete.

[clm]

Way too humid here.  75 as I started out for work.  Overcast.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Some serious training storms to our west. Simone’s getting flash flooding

[Picard]

Wonder what will become of that line out in eastern PA.  Looks to be well organized at the moment and should have plenty of fuel as it heads north and east.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Picard said:

Wonder what will become of that line out in eastern PA.  Looks to be well organized at the moment and should have plenty of fuel as it heads north and east.

Might make it to you but probably die out further east

[clm]

43 minutes ago, Picard said:

Wonder what will become of that line out in eastern PA.  Looks to be well organized at the moment and should have plenty of fuel as it heads north and east.

HRRR and NAM 3k both show it disappearing before it reaches you and me.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 89/DP 73/RH 61%

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, Picard said:

Wonder what will become of that line out in eastern PA.  Looks to be well organized at the moment and should have plenty of fuel as it heads north and east.

I am under the front of it now.  It’s rumbling and bumbling very slowly to the east.

[Picard]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I am under the front of it now.  It’s rumbling and bumbling very slowly to the east.

The first round fizzled out before crossing the river.  Maybe something will reform north of Allentown.  Looks like there is potentially some flooding rains out in the Reading area.  

[doncat]

Stronger onshore flow today limiting temp rise for many of us.... Low this am of 73° here but only managed 87° briefly this afternoon.

[Rmine1]

Upton HWO. Fool me once……

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will be capable of producing
heavy downpours. This may result in flooding of urban, low lying or
poor drainage areas, and small streams and creeks. At this time, the
best chance for heavy rainfall will be Sunday afternoon and night as
a frontal wave along a stalled out boundary potentially moves into
the area. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty where the
axis of heaviest rainfall will set up. The western half of the area
is in a slight risk for Excessive Rainfall with a marginal risk
elsewhere.

 

 

[winterwarlock]

And there it is I have annexed my first heatwave of the year with a 91 today. In fact 5 of the last 6 days have been above 90

 

8th 90 of the season

[Cfa]

91 today makes it a heat wave.

95, 93, 91

[donsutherland1]

It will be steamy and very warm through the end of the week. Temperatures could continue to reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region.

Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday with potentially heavy showers and thunderstorms. More very warm and perhaps hot weather could develop next week.

Next week could also see an extreme heat event develop in the Southwest. Cities such as Tucson and Phoenix could see readings rise toward record daily levels. The excessive heat could extend across New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +14.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.681 today.

On July 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.643 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62 probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal).

 

[dave0176]

Yep hello high dews and high temps at PSE&G New Brunswick shop we got over 1000 no AC calls since last Friday. We’re all tired and dragging 12-14 hour days non stop….. I love the heat though.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

And there it is I have annexed my first heatwave of the year with a 91 today. In fact 5 of the last 6 days have been above 90

 

8th 90 of the season

The idea of a BN or even normal summer is completely dead. 

I wouldn't be shocked to see 100s this month 

We aren't even under a strong ridge and we've seen mid 90s and 90+ temps. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The idea of a BN or even normal summer is completely dead. 

I wouldn't be shocked to see 100s this month 

We aren't even under a strong ridge and we've seen mid 90s and 90+ temps. 

100 is going to be hard with the high dews. Just like it rarely hits 100+ in Florida but 95/80/110 is common. New normal

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

100 is going to be hard with the high dews. Just like it rarely hits 100+ in Florida but 95/80/110 is common. New normal

It’s probably our future to become more Florida like in the summers as the Bermuda high/ridge builds north. The westerly wind heat blast would shoot north of us and we get the humidity on the southerly flow. That also comes with the warming waters. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty significant pattern change coming up in 4-5 days..

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The idea of a BN or even normal summer is completely dead. 

I wouldn't be shocked to see 100s this month 

We aren't even under a strong ridge and we've seen mid 90s and 90+ temps. 

Almost. We are only through one week of July and much can change. The two features battling it out, upper lows moving across Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic and WAR. As of now it does appear that WAR is going to become increasingly more dominant. I think a day or two or three of 100 during this month or next month is not out of the question as long as the w-sw to e-ne orientated WAR does become dominant.

WX/PT