July 2023

[bkviking]

1.61” for day here in Smithtown, LI on north shore  and it looks by and large over. Just east/southeast of here got the huge totals but still impressive. 

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw excessive rainfall that produced flash flooding. Bay Shore picked up 6.15" of rain. Rainfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Bridgeport: 1.45" (old record: 0.93", 1984)
Hartford: 1.53" (old record: 1.33", 1910)
Islip: 4.63" (old record: 1.22", 1989) ***Hourly rainfall of 3.04" was the 2nd highest on record and a once-in-100-year event***
Manchester: 2.44" (old record: 1.30", 1961)
New York City-La Guardia Airport: 1.38" (old record: 1.19", 1947)
Newark: 1.48" (old record: 1.22", 1933)
Providence: 2.08" (old record: 0.85", 1910)

In the wake of the heavy rainfall, a dry but very warm day lies ahead to start the work week. Readings will approach to top 90° in many locations across the region.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.035 today.

On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

[steve392]

1.5" for the last 2 days, 1" the other night.  2.5" for the week is not bad.  Grass is growing good now. 

[Rmine1]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the region saw excessive rainfall that produced flash flooding. Bay Shore picked up 6.15" of rain. Rainfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Bridgeport: 1.45" (old record: 0.93", 1984)
Hartford: 1.53" (old record: 1.33", 1910)
Islip: 4.63" (old record: 1.22", 1989) ***Hourly rainfall of 3.04" was the 2nd highest on record and a once-in-100-year event***
Manchester: 2.44" (old record: 1.30", 1961)
New York City-La Guardia Airport: 1.38" (old record: 1.19", 1947)
Newark: 1.48" (old record: 1.22", 1933)
Providence: 2.08" (old record: 0.85", 1910)

In the wake of the heavy rainfall, a dry but very warm day lies ahead to start the work week. Readings will approach to top 90° in many locations across the region.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.035 today.

On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

As always, greatly appreciate your data. I trust your info, but I’m curious about the Bay Shore total of 6.15”. Only because I live in Brightwaters, right next to Bay Shore, and while we had good totals, I don’t think it was that much. How was it reported? Thx in advance 

[Intensewind002]

The event looks largely over but I did pick up another 0.02” giving me a final total of 0.91” for the day

[Picard]

Another shower to throw me over 1.5" for today.  As someone noted earlier - due to the extreme moisture content of the air even the little blips on radar are putting down moderate showers.  Usually the light greens barley reach the ground and only result in a few drops.

[lee59]

.97 of an inch here today, vast majority of it this morning.

[wxallannj]

Only .37"  today in Clifton

[dmillz25]

Finished with 2.17” on the day with 2.47” the last 2 days

[doncat]

Had 1.70" here evenly split last two days.

[SnoSki14]

We're basically near normal for the year and any semblance of drought has been wiped out. 

And with more rains to come we'll probably skew towards AN precip wise. This is a stark contrast to where we were this time last year

[rclab]

Good evening everyone. CPK, since 07:51 Friday to 13:51 today received 1.81 inches of rain. 1.24, today, between 07:51 and 13:51. Stay well all. As always ….

 

[SACRUS]

 

7/16

 

TEB: 84
LGA: 81
BLM: 81
JFK: 81
EWR: 80
New Brnswck: 80
PHL: 80
ISP: 80
ACY: 78
NYC: 78
TTN: 77

[SACRUS]

 

July is shaping up like 2016/ 2020 warm and wet.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

July is shaping up like 2016/ 2020 warm and wet.

Actually, the models tonight are trending dramatically warmer overall. Yes there's still the cooler stretch from July 21-23 but after that the models warm but all go in somewhat different directions. The CMC is the drier solution with the warm up to possibly hot conditions while the GFS positions HP too far north off of the Atlantic seaboard with a southeasterly fetch and tons of moisture for a day or two before another weak cold front passes through and we turn hot. But then it spins up a hurricane off of the southeast coast. The most dramatic change however was on the GEFS which develops a ridge stretching from Spain and Portugal westward into the Pacific and pretty much the entire CONUS is under an enormous ridge which would probably signal heat if it were correct.

WX/PT

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    81degs.(72/90) or +3.

Moth to date is   79.5[+2.3].       Should be   80.0[+2.5] by the 25th.

Reached 82 yesterday.

Today:    86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 75 tomorrow AM.

75*(98%RH) here at 7am{ was 74 earlier}.     79* at 9am.     80* at 10am.     83* at 11am.       82* at Noon.    83* at 1pm.

 

[Brian5671]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

July is shaping up like 2016/ 2020 warm and wet.

I've had about 7 inches of rain at my house since 7/3....crazy

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Actually, the models tonight are trending dramatically warmer overall. Yes there's still the cooler stretch from July 21-23 but after that the models warm but all go in somewhat different directions. The CMC is the drier solution with the warm up to possibly hot conditions while the GFS positions HP too far north off of the Atlantic seaboard with a southeasterly fetch and tons of moisture for a day or two before another weak cold front passes through and we turn hot. But then it spins up a hurricane off of the southeast coast. The most dramatic change however was on the GEFS which develops a ridge stretching from Spain and Portugal westward into the Pacific and pretty much the entire CONUS is under an enormous ridge which would probably signal heat if it were correct.

WX/PT

No sings of real heat for the next two weeks

[JustinRP37]

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No sings of real heat for the next two weeks

I don’t know about real heat, but it would be nice to have a brief reprieve from the real dews!

[bluewave]

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	9.15	15
2	2016	6.98	2
3	2021	6.72	1
4	2018	6.12	0
5	2009	5.65	1

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1916	12.41	0
2	1969	12.15	0
3	1925	11.66	0
4	2004	11.37	0
5	1889	9.30	0
6	2023	8.84	15
7	1952	8.60	0
8	2017	8.45	0
9	1912	8.34	0
10	1873	8.32	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1984	8.36	0
2	1969	7.67	0
3	1996	6.55	0
4	2009	6.52	0
5	2007	6.50	0
6	1992	6.20	0
7	2023	6.00	15
8	2006	5.46	0
9	2020	5.15	0
10	2021	5.12	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	2022	82.6	0
3	1993	82.5	0
4	2010	82.3	0
5	1994	81.9	0
6	2023	81.0	15
7	2013	80.9	0
8	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
9	2019	80.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	81.6	0
2	2020	81.5	0
3	2019	81.4	0
4	2012	81.2	2
5	2010	81.1	2
6	2002	80.9	0
7	2023	80.7	15
-	2013	80.7	0
8	2011	80.5	3
9	2016	79.8	0
10	2018	79.4	0
-	2006	79.4	0

[SACRUS]

74/73. Fog is starting to burn off here and already cleared in some places.  Warm and humid today with upper 80s low 90s in the warm spots perhaps a stray 94,95 in the hot spots.  Tue (7/18) warm and humid more haze (smoke) and scattered storms in the PM.  Where and when the sun is out it will warm up quickly and pending on how much could see mid 80s or near 90.  Storms in the PM some more soakers.  Wed (7/19) - Thu (7/20) warm and more isolated storms with the stronger heat staying south and recent rains temps likely capped in the 80s.  

Fri (7/21) more widespread storms with a deep south/southwesterly flow before front clears for the weekend.   The western ridge anchored with trough into the NE/GL and an expanding western atlatnic ridge will keep boundary near by next weekend before height rise so warm and humid with more storm chances through the 23/24. Period 7/21 - 7/24 looks near or below with clouds and stronger heat south.

7/25th and beyond heights rising into the area as the W/ Atl Ridge sets up off the coast and a warm to how sw flow.  The western atlantic ridge will push stronger heat into the east at times reaching into the Northeast.  The end of the month looks hot as the nation is very warm and stronger heat pushing into the GL and heading east.

 

 

[uofmiami]

26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I don’t know about real heat, but it would be nice to have a brief reprieve from the real dews!

Have to wait until this weekend, Sunday, for a brief drop of the DPs into the 50s.  Might get a brief drop on Wed too, all short lived though.

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	9.15	15
2	2016	6.98	2
3	2021	6.72	1
4	2018	6.12	0
5	2009	5.65	1

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1916	12.41	0
2	1969	12.15	0
3	1925	11.66	0
4	2004	11.37	0
5	1889	9.30	0
6	2023	8.84	15
7	1952	8.60	0
8	2017	8.45	0
9	1912	8.34	0
10	1873	8.32	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1984	8.36	0
2	1969	7.67	0
3	1996	6.55	0
4	2009	6.52	0
5	2007	6.50	0
6	1992	6.20	0
7	2023	6.00	15
8	2006	5.46	0
9	2020	5.15	0
10	2021	5.12	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	2022	82.6	0
3	1993	82.5	0
4	2010	82.3	0
5	1994	81.9	0
6	2023	81.0	15
7	2013	80.9	0
8	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
9	2019	80.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	81.6	0
2	2020	81.5	0
3	2019	81.4	0
4	2012	81.2	2
5	2010	81.1	2
6	2002	80.9	0
7	2023	80.7	15
-	2013	80.7	0
8	2011	80.5	3
9	2016	79.8	0
10	2018	79.4	0
-	2006	79.4	0

Thanks for posting MGJ, it’s been an incredible stretch in this neck of the woods for the past several weeks, seems like if we don’t bullseye we’re damn close each event. 18.82” IMBY over the last month.

[winterwarlock]

this is the first weekend this summer that my extended forecast does not have rain showers in the forecast 

 

8 weekends gone already and most to crappy clouds and showers...awful beach season

 

 

[winterwarlock]

RIP Elise Finch

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this is the first weekend this summer that my extended forecast does not have rain showers in the forecast 

 

8 weekends gone already and most to crappy clouds and showers...awful beach season

 

 

it's been alot of weekend day washouts going back to late April.  Bad luck there

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

RIP Elise Finch

So sad and so sudden.  RIP.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Thanks for posting MGJ, it’s been an incredible stretch in this neck of the woods for the past several weeks, seems like if we don’t bullseye we’re damn close each event. 18.82” IMBY over the last month.

Nearly 20” at West Point over the last 30 days.

 

Data for June 18, 2023 through July 17, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	19.07
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	16.66
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	14.11
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	13.32
NY	BEACON 4.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	12.49
NY	NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	11.90
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	11.83
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	11.67
NY	WALDEN 1.2 S	CoCoRaHS	11.67
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.00
NY	PEEKSKILL 0.4 N	CoCoRaHS	10.98
NY	PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	10.66
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	10.65
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	10.53
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	10.33
NY	WARWICK 3.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS

 

[SACRUS]

43 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this is the first weekend this summer that my extended forecast does not have rain showers in the forecast 

 

8 weekends gone already and most to crappy clouds and showers...awful beach season

 

 

was lucky to have mostly rain free Jul 1/2 Jul 8/9 down in NJ shore.  From Jun 29 - Jul 14 only rain was jul 13 (am) . Jul 9, Jul 4 (10 min shower). Was great stretch and waters were in the mid - upper 70s.

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

As always, greatly appreciate your data. I trust your info, but I’m curious about the Bay Shore total of 6.15”. Only because I live in Brightwaters, right next to Bay Shore, and while we had good totals, I don’t think it was that much. How was it reported? Thx in advance 

The Bay Shore figure came from the NWS's local storm report.