July 2023

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

That cell is missing me to the south, but it looks close for you. 

Thunder getting louder currently. I think we will get lots of rain the next two days 

[CIK62]

BN next Saturday?       5830m is Normal.

Meanwhile Red Army reinforcements are approaching right now.     Can they make it into the City.....................?

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thunder getting louder currently. I think we will get lots of rain the next two days 

Warning canceled. But I’ll take the rain. .46 so far 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Doesn't even look like the sea breeze is limiting temps very much.

Ocean temps are in the upper 70s. It won’t do much anymore other than add humidity. 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Warning canceled. But I’ll take the rain. .46 so far 

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

[Snowlover11]

cell just blow up in far northern jersey i hear the thunder from here

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

Really blowing up around mercer and somerset 

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

BN next Saturday?       5830m is Normal.

Meanwhile Red Army reinforcements are approaching right now.     Can they make it into the City.....................?

Yeah the models have a nice airmass coming in next weekend. Could be a few days of lower humidity. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just had some sprinkles here. I see a few more cells popping to our southwest, so we could see something over the next hour or so. I want to get a cookout going but I'll wait a little while for this threat to pass. 

Big day tomorrow like you said. I think it could be the biggest widespread heavy rain event so far this season. 

Up To .55 so far…I think we add to that before the day is over. Storms moving north now 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Up To .55 so far…I think we add to that before the day is over. Storms moving north now 

Over a inch being reported now in south Edison and near New Brunswick 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Really blowing up around mercer and somerset 

For days the Euro model kept insisting today would be dry, but obviously it was wrong. The RGEM did a good job the last few days showing a little more activity for today. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

For days the Euro model kept insisting today would be dry, but obviously it was wrong. The RGEM did a good job the last few days showing a little more activity for today. 

I thought today would be more isolated as well. Now watch we'll get nothing tomorrow 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I thought today would be more isolated as well. Now watch we'll get nothing tomorrow 

Yeah you never know with summer convection. 

[SI Mailman]

Over a inch being reported now in south Edison and near New Brunswick 

Just getting into some action from that cell. Moderate rain here with thunder in the distance

[Allsnow]

About to get crushed here again 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

About to get crushed here again 

I really can't tell which direction the storms are moving...seems like ENE but also lifting to the north 

Don't think it's making it to me

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

About to get crushed here again 

Looks like it

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I really can't tell which direction the storms are moving...seems like ENE but also lifting to the north 

Don't think it's making it to me

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Looks as if Allsnow is about to get hit, but we might be more on the edge of it up here. 

[Tatamy]

This is a view of the convection complex that has been hammering central NJ.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Looks as if Allsnow is about to get hit, but we might be more on the edge of it up here. 

Lol people are asking me if they should cancel tonight's party. It doesn't get going til 8 so I think we're fine by then

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol people are asking me if they should cancel tonight's party. It doesn't get going til 8 so I think we're fine by then

Yeah it should be cleared out by then. I don't care if I don't start our cookout until 7. It can be a late night. 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like it

Dumping 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it should be cleared out by then. I don't care if I don't start our cookout until 7. It can be a late night. 

Neighbors are hosting a party for 50+ 

[winterwx21]

Moderate rain here right now. The Heavy stuff missing just to the south. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Dumping 

Flood warning. Storm is just parked 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Neighbors are hosting a party for 50+ 

I hope the 50+ year olds can swim. 

[FPizz]

.07"  missed to my south

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Flood warning. Storm is just parked 

Over a inch and counting 

[Rjay]

Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152127Z - 160030Z

Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread
northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may
remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell
mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW
to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to
backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to
3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this
activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this
activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the
NYC metro into this evening.

SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east
while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample
moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern
that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ
which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley
which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past
week.

This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis
that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which
brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday.

 

 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152127Z - 160030Z

Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread
northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may
remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell
mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW
to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to
backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to
3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this
activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this
activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the
NYC metro into this evening.

SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east
while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample
moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern
that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ
which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley
which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past
week.

This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis
that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which
brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday.

 

 

Latest run of HRRR says it's gonna completely fall apart before NYC, but then again this HRRR run didn't get the heavy rain amounts far enough east into Middlesex County. It'll be interesting to see if it makes it to NYC.