6/29-7/1 Severe Weather Threat

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

Recent SPC meso noting there could be increased storm development north pf the MCV in northeastern Illinois.

love 2 hear it

had been modeled but was suspicious

[SolidIcewx]

Hope these winds are not reaching the ground

[Chicago916]

KORD office was riding the HRDPS and it looks like it performed very well with this

[cincy.wx]

cautiously optimistic at the premise of the northern end swiping thru cincy this evening

[Indystorm]

Northern extent of storms the next few days as always will depend on the strength and expansion of the hot dome to get the ridge runners.

[MN Transplant]

82.5 mph on this station near Indianola, IL:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b30b4bfc5287a664831e9627778376be/tiles

[Chicago Storm]

54 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Recent SPC meso noting there could be increased storm development north pf the MCV in northeastern Illinois.

 

53 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

love 2 hear it

had been modeled but was suspicious

i wouldn't count on it.

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I just don't understand how northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin can get a significant severe weather event at the end of March, and then can't buy one for all of May and June.

We are gonna have an upcoming month one year with like 10-20 events.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

We are gonna have an upcoming month one year with like 10-20 events.

It'll probably happen when we're short-staffed where I work and I can't take any PTO.

[CheeselandSkies]

Speaking of the devil, random tornado warning for Bureau County, IL. Even if anything were to happen, it'd be totally rain-wrapped.

[Baum]

bullet dodged on the wind. But looks like rain is a miss as well.

[Chicago Storm]

7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Speaking of the devil, random tornado warning for Bureau County, IL. Even if anything were to happen, it'd be totally rain-wrapped.

OFB accident with that one, occurring on the intersection of two OFB's.

[Chicago Storm]

RIJ on the derecho being sampled at 95KT on KILX.

[csnavywx]

That rear inflow jet -- sheesh. Looks to be outrunning the reservoir of readily available instability though. Only the southern fringe is likely to survive into the evening hours.

Given the strength of the RIJ, cold pool and advection aloft, might see some induced isentropic lift atop the "dome" and get some additional elevated thunderstorm activity to fire in its wake.

[Lightning]

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Hope these winds are not reaching the ground

They did. Significant tree damage in tolono and savoy. I live in savoy. Traffic being redirected. No power for 2 hours now. Buddy had a tree fall on his house with wife and kids inside. 

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

love 2 hear it

had been modeled but was suspicious

Blessed 

[Chambana]

RIP 40 year old apple tree. 

[SolidIcewx]

23 minutes ago, Chambana said:

They did. Significant tree damage in tolono and savoy. I live in savoy. Traffic being redirected. No power for 2 hours now. Buddy had a tree fall on his house with wife and kids inside. 

Jesus…. I hope they are all okay that’s not good at all

[Chambana]

1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said:

Jesus…. I hope they are all okay that’s not good at all

They are fine. Thanks for asking. Large hole in the roof. 

[SolidIcewx]

14 minutes ago, Chambana said:

They are fine. Thanks for asking. Large hole in the roof. 

I’ve been doing storm work here in Dearborn and Detroit and have seen smashed garages and part of homes with downed lines all week. It breaks my heart to hear that but I’m in joy that they are okay and the people affected by the storms up here

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

KORD office was riding the HRDPS and it looks like it performed very well with this

Big props to that model.  It's been advertising this for days.  Blowing the HRRR/NEST out of the water the past few years to be sure.

[Chambana]

No power still. I have no doubt those 100mph winds mixed to the surface. Running on generator, corn in flat in the fields, curious to see if a tornado went through.

[WeatherMonger]

Got hit pretty hard here, have extensive wind damage across the city. More than half the people are without power in Springfield, been without power for over 5 hours now and no estimate on when power will be restored.

 

Hit here About 12:20pm, power went out just after the tornado warning was issued. Had a pretty good couplet that formed just east of New Berlin and then took a SE turn going slightly north of Chatham, stayed faitly strong on velocity scans going between Edinburg and Kincaid. Won't be surprised to see a few touchdowns confirmed if not a path. A lot of trees snapped half way up and significant damage to homes, but none leveled, in the Curran area.

 

Seen quite a few large limbs and trees snapped on the drive home, had a large tree snapped and on a couple cars on Peoria road across from State Fairgrounds, but those trees are a bit sketchy due to the way the power company trims them around the lines.

Best and worst storm, depends on how you view weather, to hit here in quite some time, i would say the most widespread damage since the 2006 March 12 tornados. 

Number without power has actually increased a few thousand since 3pm, was at 44% then.

 

 

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

3 hours ago, csnavywx said:

That rear inflow jet -- sheesh. Looks to be outrunning the reservoir of readily available instability though. Only the southern fringe is likely to survive into the evening hours.

Given the strength of the RIJ, cold pool and advection aloft, might see some induced isentropic lift atop the "dome" and get some additional elevated thunderstorm activity to fire in its wake.

Rapid decay of the derecho as it pushed through the IND/LMK/PAH CWA's. The heavily modified air from the morning MCS in E. IL/SW. IN/W. KY killed it off fairly quickly.

Looks like renewed development is underway across SE. Illinois, with quality still TBD. A staple off high end MCS events, thought.

[sbnwx85]

I'm trying to extend the dates for this thread since there's slight risk across much of the forum on 6/30 and 7/1...but not sure how to do it. Can an admin update?

[frostfern]

Big right moving supercell is going to miss MBY just northeast.  I can hear it rumbling like a bowling alley.  So aggravating.  Just have to pray for some fill in to the west.

[Chicago Storm]

16 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I'm trying to extend the dates for this thread since there's slight risk across much of the forum on 6/30 and 7/1...but not sure how to do it. Can an admin update?

You can edit the thread title by editing your first post in the thread.

[sbnwx85]

Thanks...I haven't started a topic in like three years.

[csnavywx]

19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Rapid decay of the derecho as it pushed through the IND/LMK/PAH CWA's. The heavily modified air from the morning MCS in E. IL/SW. IN/W. KY killed it off fairly quickly.

Looks like renewed development is underway across SE. Illinois, with quality still TBD. A staple off high end MCS events, thought.

Yeah, after this little batch of activity, I'd definitely be looking upstream to the outflow-reinforced front. Should be a really nice instability gradient and source of low level convergence for another MCS to come ripping east again tomorrow.