TheClimateChanger Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Lightning said: I still don't get why they insist on calling it 'normal'. It is an average (as you said). If each day did exact what that chart showed it would be the most abnormal weather ever for the Midwest/Great Lakes. This is actually a misconception. Not only are the values smoothed and normalized, but advanced statistical tools are employed to take it into account changes in exposure, location, and trends. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year average monthly mean for ORD in July is 74.6F; however, the 1991-2020 normal is 75.4F. The latter number is much closer to the current 15-year (2008-2022) running average of 75.3F. A "normal" July would actually be 0.8F warmer than the average from 1991-2020. Similarly, the 1991-2020 30-year average monthly mean for CLE in July is 73.6F; however, the official 1991-2020 normal is 74.5F. The latter number is exactly even with the current 15-year (2008-2022) running average of 74.5F. A "normal" July is 0.9F warmer than a simple arithmetic mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 Prelim data for June showing another warm one for our region. Since 2005, June's have been running near avg to well above. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: This is actually a misconception. Not only are the values smoothed and normalized, but advanced statistical tools are employed to take it into account changes in exposure, location, and trends. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year average monthly mean for ORD in July is 74.6F; however, the 1991-2020 normal is 75.4F. The latter number is much closer to the current 15-year (2008-2022) running average of 75.3F. A "normal" July would actually be 0.8F warmer than the average from 1991-2020. Similarly, the 1991-2020 30-year average monthly mean for CLE in July is 73.6F; however, the official 1991-2020 normal is 74.5F. The latter number is exactly even with the current 15-year (2008-2022) running average of 74.5F. A "normal" July is 0.9F warmer than a simple arithmetic mean. Averages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Models are strongly suggesting an MCS will form in NE/SD Tuesday and track east-southeast through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 On 7/4/2023 at 1:12 PM, Chicago Storm said: Whole modem die or transmission line? . Sorry just saw this, FTI line from the tower to here. We still have working equipment and we can get the data by calling in on the ASOS line then we feed it into AISR, its a bit of a pain during thunderstorms but otherwise we are making due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 It appears cyclones call for a wet July has come to fruition, at least here locally, as training thunderstorms brought 3.50” of rain Saturday morning. Multiple chances of rain this coming week, the flash drought should soon be a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Going to have to close windows and fire up the AC today. Calling for a high of 87 here, probably break 90 tomorrow before the cold front and associated clouds approach. 1.50” of precipitation since June 1st. Dust Bowl’n. Really hoping we score on some convection tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 14 hours ago, Stebo said: Sorry just saw this, FTI line from the tower to here. We still have working equipment and we can get the data by calling in on the ASOS line then we feed it into AISR, its a bit of a pain during thunderstorms but otherwise we are making due. Answers my question, too. But just in case ASOS goes belly up, do you have equipment to use for manual obs? Hand held devices maybe? Back in my Army days, we used a hand held anenometer, a psychrometer for dry/wet bulb (twirl that for a minute or so), and a rather large barometer. Of course that's old school. It's all digital stuff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 18 hours ago, Lightning said: Averages. Yeah, they don't tell you the nature of the weather that created them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brian D said: Answers my question, too. But just in case ASOS goes belly up, do you have equipment to use for manual obs? Hand held devices maybe? Back in my Army days, we used a hand held anenometer, a psychrometer for dry/wet bulb (twirl that for a minute or so), and a rather large barometer. Of course that's old school. It's all digital stuff now. Stebo after the ASOS craps out. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 18 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models are strongly suggesting an MCS will form in NE/SD Tuesday and track east-southeast through Wednesday. Models are now tracking the MCS farther south, potentially leaving my area dry again, because of course they are. ... and this might be it for another week or two. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Brian D said: Yeah, they don't tell you the nature of the weather that created them. I remember living in Seattle where the pattern is extremely bimodal in early summer. In June you get a lot of cloudy days where it barely gets above 60, then you get some offshore flow to burn off the stratus and you have a stretch of 80s. The average high is dead smack in the middle, but "average" days aren't the norm at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 On 7/8/2023 at 3:40 PM, Brian D said: Prelim data for June showing another warm one for our region. Since 2005, June's have been running near avg to well above. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. What data are used to generate these? June 1856 was not the warmest June on record in the Great Lakes. That is incorrect. Smithsonian records have mean temperatures of 68.0F at Chicago, 70.7F at Detroit, and 70.6F at Cleveland - and these are based on tri-daily measurements, which have a warm bias compared to the average of the maximum and minimum - particularly pervasive in early summer, when 7 am local solar time is hours after sunrise. That is not even close to years like 1919, 2005, 1933, and 1934. That has to be wrong. The more recent data looks similar to official government statistics, except that the most recent years appear to have been systematically cooled relative to the past - which makes little sense, considering most of the biases in the earlier data would result in a warming bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 12 hours ago, Brian D said: Answers my question, too. But just in case ASOS goes belly up, do you have equipment to use for manual obs? Hand held devices maybe? Back in my Army days, we used a hand held anenometer, a psychrometer for dry/wet bulb (twirl that for a minute or so), and a rather large barometer. Of course that's old school. It's all digital stuff now. We have some handheld backup stuff and some information from the tower itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 12 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Stebo after the ASOS craps out. Pretty much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: What data are used to generate these? June 1856 was not the warmest June on record in the Great Lakes. That is incorrect. Smithsonian records have mean temperatures of 68.0F at Chicago, 70.7F at Detroit, and 70.6F at Cleveland - and these are based on tri-daily measurements, which have a warm bias compared to the average of the maximum and minimum - particularly pervasive in early summer, when 7 am local solar time is hours after sunrise. That is not even close to years like 1919, 2005, 1933, and 1934. That has to be wrong. The more recent data looks similar to official government statistics, except that the most recent years appear to have been systematically cooled relative to the past - which makes little sense, considering most of the biases in the earlier data would result in a warming bias. It's "milk plant" data from an avg of datasets. Raw from the "teet" stuff gets processed, and some are reanalysis sets. Data is quite variable during the 1800's, although the datasets start becoming more close in the late 1800's. It is what it is. I don't do my own evals on what was done. It's an estimation, and if there happens to be a year that's off, not much I can do about it. Edit: Just looked at the datasets anoms for June. They range from 1.3 - 4.6 (1901-2000 baseline). This is not uncommon with these datasets to have this kind of variability between them for the 1800's as I mentioned above. "Milk plant" effect I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Storms rolled through last night. Nice lightning show for a little while. Couple close hits. 0.34" of rain. 0.84" for the month so far. 4.10" since May 1st is well behind normal by 4.71" as of today July 10. June, and July are the peak of precip season around here, so we need to step up, or get left behind in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 High of 93 today. Waiting for the convection to fire just to my east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Today was the 21st 90+ day at MLI for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Still waiting, none in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 73 for the high today with showers and storms currently pushing through the area. Looks like near to slightly below average temps with off/on rain chances the next week or so. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 As the theme of the summer continues, convection fired off east of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Next 10 days looks wet now, possibly really wet if the next cutoff stalls in the right place, but no heat or high CAPE IMBY for a long time. Still boring for summer, but better than drought and smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, frostfern said: Next 10 days looks wet now, possibly really wet if the next cutoff stalls in the right place, but no heat or high CAPE IMBY for a long time. Still boring for summer, but better than drought and smoke. Not trying to belittle or make light the events in Vermont. But I would love to get widespread 4-8" rain totals like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 22 hours ago, Brian D said: It's "milk plant" data from an avg of datasets. Raw from the "teet" stuff gets processed, and some are reanalysis sets. Data is quite variable during the 1800's, although the datasets start becoming more close in the late 1800's. It is what it is. I don't do my own evals on what was done. It's an estimation, and if there happens to be a year that's off, not much I can do about it. Edit: Just looked at the datasets anoms for June. They range from 1.3 - 4.6 (1901-2000 baseline). This is not uncommon with these datasets to have this kind of variability between them for the 1800's as I mentioned above. "Milk plant" effect I guess. Interesting. Here is my best guess for the lower Great Lakes, using 7 reference sites. Data before 1860 is limited, and subject to larger deviation from actual. Edit: Corrected error in data for 1857 and added 8th reference site. Top 5 Coldest: 1. 1842; 2. 1862; 3. 1839; 4. 1903; 5T. 1834; 5T. 1857 Top 5 Warmest: 1. 1949; 2. 1919; 3. 2005; 4T. 2021; 4T. 1933 Comparing to NCEI rankings for 1895-present only: Top 5 Coldest: 1. 1903; 2. 1926; 3T. 1927, 1916, and 1928 Top 5 Warmest: 1. 1949; 2. 1919; 3. 2005; 4T. 2021; 4T. 1933 For the entire Great Lakes basin, NCEI has: Top 5 Coldest: 1T. 1916 & 1926; 3. 1958; 4. 1928; 5T. 1915, 1917 & 1982 1903 is 8th coldest and 1927 is 9th coldest. My dataset has 1958 and 1982 tied for 6th coldest since 1895, and 1917 & 1915 tied for 11th coldest since 1895. Some variation, but this my dataset covers only a subset of the full GL basin. Top 5 Warmest: 1T. 1919 & 2005; 3. 1933; 4. 1949; 5. 2021 All match, except for order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. Here is my best guess for the lower Great Lakes, using 7 reference sites. Data before 1860 is limited, and subject to larger deviation from actual. Top 5 Coldest: 1842, 1837, 1862, 1839, and 1903 Top 5 Warmest: 1949, 1919, 2005, 2021, and 1933 Do you really believe anything pre 1860s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 A cool 46 this morning after hvy rainfall and storms. Sunset 7-10-23, Hwy 41 west in Negaunee 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Models are still all over the place with tonight's MCS action. I could get an inch or nothing at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 feel p confident in some garden variety 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 lake enhanced outflow or something just rolled through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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