July 2023 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Yada yada dca, nyc, bos, ord, atl, iah, den, phx, sea enter by July 1 06z and then enjoy the long weekend ...  

Anyone looking for more info should check June 2023 contest thread. 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 +0.5    +0.8   +1.1     +0.7    +0.9   +1.0     +0.8    0.7    +1.2  

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.0       1.0       0.5        0.5    1.0      1.5        0.5      1.0      0.0

[wxallannj]

DCA   NYC   BOS   ORD.  ATL   IAH.  DEN.  PHX.  SEA

1.0      1.2      1.4     1.0.     1.0.     1.7.   -1.2.    1.2.     0.6

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.3       1.2       1.7        0.6    1.0      1.2        -0.8    1.0       2.5

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 +0.7    +0.9   +0.5    +1.1    +0.6   +1.2     +1.1    +0.3     +0.6

[bkviking]

DCA   +1.0

NYC   +0.9 

BOS   +0.9

ORD  +1.1

ATL   +0.9

IAH   +2.0

DEN  +2.2

PHX  2.2

SEA  +1.4 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-0.4     0.3      0.1       -1.3    -0.2    2.0        1.2      1.5       1.3

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.7

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  -0.2

ORD:  +0.2

ATL:  +0.7

IAH:  +1.8

DEN:  -1.4

PHX:  +1.9

SEA:  +0.4

[Roger Smith]

+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

[Rjay]

DCA   +1.5

NYC   +1.5

BOS   +1.5

ORD  +2.0

ATL   +1.5

IAH   +2.5

DEN  +2.5

PHX  +2.5

SEA  +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for July 2023

 

 

______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RJay _________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 

DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.7 ___+0.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ____ -0.8 _ +1.0 _ +2.5

wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ____ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.6

Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

BKViking _____________________ +1.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 ___+1.1 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.2 _ +1.4

___ Consensus _______________ +0.9 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___+0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0

Tom __________________________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___+1.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 ___ +1.1 _ +0.3 _ +0.6

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.7 _ +1.2

Roger Smith __________________+0.3 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___+0.4 _ -0.7 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _____________________ -0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.1 ___ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 

wxdude64 ____________________-0.7 _ -0.2 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.8 ___ -1.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.4 

- - - - -

___ Persistence (June 2023) __-2.2 _-2.0 _ -2.1 ____ +0.2 _ -1.3 _ +2.1 ___ -4.0 _ -2.0 __ 0.0

____________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, equal for SEA.

 

[Roger Smith]

First report on anomalies and projections ...

______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(11) ____ (10d anom) ________ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ -0.9 ___ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 ____ -5.2 _ +4.6 _ +2.7

(21) ____ (20d anom) _______ +0.9 _ +1.9 _ +1.6 __ -0.7 _ +1.9 _ +3.1 _____ -2.5 _ +6.7 _ +2.6

(11) ____ (p27 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ -0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5

(21) ____ (p31 anom) ________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _____ 0.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5

(31) ____ (final anom) _______ +0.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.3 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ____ -1.2 _ +7.2 _ +1.4

 

(11) _ Projections are based on assumed near average to +1.0 trends in east, and +2.0 to +3.0 in west. DEN will probably edge up all of July after a cool start. Not sure if it can get to 0.0 but some more anomalous warm conditions are indicated. 

(21) _ Projections are now based on a regime of +1.0 east to +4.0 west, little change for most locations but a continued drift upwards for DEN. Preliminary scores based on these estimates will be posted later today. 

(29) _ Phoenix remains +7.2 so that will probably need to be scored from max 60. DEN is creeping ever upwards, may make it to -1.0. SEA will finish closer to +2.0.

(31) _ All final anomalies now posted (1st 1030z) and scoring is now based on final values as shown. Confirmed anomalies are underlined. 

 

Updated seasonal max to date (7/31) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___ 93 __ 98 __ 103 _____ 98 __ 119 __ 91

 

(future updates of seasonal max will migrate to August contest thread)

[Roger Smith]

__ Final scoring for July 2023 __

... scoring based on end of month anomalies reported in previous post ... ^ indicates max 60 scoring for PHX. 

 

____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

 

wxallannj ____________________92 _ 94 _ 98 __ 284 __ 86 _ 76 _ 80 __ 242 _ 526 __100_ 36^_ 84 __220 ____ 746

RJay _________________________82 _100 _ 96 __ 278 __ 66 _ 86 _ 96__ 248 _ 526 __26 _ 60^_ 98__ 184 ____ 710 

DonSutherland1 _____________ 86 _ 94 _ 92 __ 272 __ 94 _ 76 _ 70 __ 240 _ 512 __ 92 _ 24^_ 78 __ 194 ____ 706 

BKViking _____________________ 92 _ 88 _ 92 __ 272 __ 84 _ 74 _ 86 __ 244 _ 516 __ 32 _ 54^_100__186 ____ 702

___ Consensus _______________ 94 _ 88 _ 88 __ 270 __ 92 _ 74 _ 78 __ 244 _ 514 __ 56 _ 27^_ 92 __ 175 ____ 689

wxdude64 ____________________74 _ 66 _ 70 __ 210 __ 98 _ 70 _ 82 __ 250 _ 460 __ 96 _48^_ 80 __ 224 ____ 684

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 98 _ 86 _ 96 __ 280 __ 92 _ 74 _ 66 __ 232 _ 512 __ 60 _ 12^_ 96 __ 168 ____ 680

Scotty Lightning _____________ 92 _ 90 _ 84 __ 266 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 _ 514 __ 66 _ 24^_ 72 __ 162 ____ 676 

Tom _________________________  98_ 88 _ 84 __ 270 __ 84 _ 68 _ 70 __ 222 _ 492 __ 54 _ 06^_ 84 __ 144 ____ 636

RodneyS _____________________ 80 _ 76 _ 76 __ 232 __ 68 _ 52 _ 86 __ 206 _ 438 __ 52 _ 42^_ 98 __ 192 ____ 630

Roger Smith __________________94 _ 76 _ 76 __ 246 __ 98 _ 42 _ 76 __ 216 _ 462 __ 46 _ 24^_ 72 __ 142 ____ 604 

___ Normal ___________________ 88 _ 70 _ 74 __ 232 __ 94 _ 56 _ 46 __ 196 _ 428 __ 76 _ 00 __72 __ 148 ____ 576

___ Persistence (June anoms) ____ -2.2 _ -2.0 _-2.1 ____ ____ +0.2 _-1.3 _+2.1 ____ ____ ____ __ -4.0 _-2.0* _ 0.0

___ Persistence scoring _______44 _ 30 _ 32 __ 106 __ 98 _ 30 _ 88 __ 216 _ 322 __ 44 _ 00 _ 72 __ 116 ____ 438

 

____________________________

EXTREME FORECASTS

DCA, BOS, SEA do not qualify for an extreme forecast. (BOS and SEA missed by 0.1 as 3rd warmest forecasts were top scores)

NYC, ATL, IAH and PHX are wins for RJay warmest forecasts.

ORD is a shared win for wxdude64 and Roger Smith, and a loss for RodneyS (also a loss for Normal) with coldest forecast.

DEN is a win for second coldest forecast (wxallannj) and a loss for coldest wxdude64.

 

[Roger Smith]

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - JULY 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. 

Scoring ranks mainly unchanged in July except for Tom moving past Roger Smith into 9th. Some margins have changed. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 432 _408 _ 448 __1288 __504 _510 _468 __1482 __2770 __451 _410_520 __1381 ____4151

RJay _______________________ 430 _444 _ 431 __1305 __ 525 _454 _476__ 1455 __2760 __341 _415 _541 __1297 ____4057

wxallannj __________________ 425 _440 _ 457 __1322__ 555 _478 _420__ 1453 __2775 __429 _424 _414 __1267 ____4042

 

___ Consensus _____________403 _406 _ 455 __1264__ 515 _422 _455 __1392 __2656 _ 381 _397 _522 __1300 ____3956

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________411 _408 _ 477 __1296 __ 526 _425 _437 __1388 __2684 __352 _350 _533 __1235 ____3919

RodneyS __________________ 396 _390 _422 __1208 __ 349 _395 _478 __1222 __2430 _ 447 _428 _524 __1399____3829

wxdude64 _________________398 _387 _394 __1179 __ 417 _454 _404 __1275 __2454 __ 491 _380 _486 __ 1357 ____3811

BKViking ___________________410 _402 _443 __1255 __477 _414 _461 __ 1352 __2607 __323 _ 330 _412 __1065 ____3672

Scotty Lightning ___________341 _366 _412 __ 1119 __469 _355 _434 __1258 __2377 __ 332 _288 _416 __ 1036 ____3413

... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... Tom's unimproved score is now a bit ahead of mine ...

Tom (6/7) __________________357 _354 _373 __1084 __346 _362 _420 __1128 __2212 __342 _306 _429 __1077 _____3289 (3837)

Roger Smith _______________ 362 _312 _340 __1014 __383 _295 _422 __1100 __2114 __321 _326 _502 __ 1149 ____ 3263

___ Normal _________________292 _306 _342 __ 940 __410 _358 _348 __1116 __ 2056 __372 _ 310 _416 __1096 ____ 3152

Rhino16 (4/7) ______________212 _228 _250 ___ 690 ___310 _288 _216 ___814 __1504 __209 _212 _288 __ 709 ____ 2213 (3873) 

Stormchaser Chuck (3/7) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 (4401) 

so_whats_happening (3/7) _124 _126 _ 180 ___ 430 __ 169 _105 _180 ___ 454 ___884 __122 __168 _218 __ 508 ____1392 (3248) 

Terpeast (1/7) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (3374)

rainsucks (1/7) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (3192)

- - - - -

___ Persistence ____________287 _254 _348 __ 889 ___378 _ 341 _ 422 __1141 ___2030 __ 192 _ 344 _ 370 __ 906 ____ 2936  

                           _______________________________________________________

 

 

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

 

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____2 _ Jan,Mar

RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___3 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0___ 2* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 

wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May(t),July

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May

hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t)

RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun

wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr

BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0

Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0

Tom (6/7) _________________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____2**___0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 

___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0

Rhino16 (4/6) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Stormchaser Chuck (3/6) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb

so_whats_happening (3/6) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Terpeast (1/6) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

rainsucks (1/6) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

 

(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^

-----------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY

 

So far, 53 of 63 forecasts qualify, 30 of them for warmest, and 23 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2 ...

12 of 53 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul __ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 __ 15-1 ______14.5 - 1.0

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0

RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 ___ 9-2 ______ 8.5 - 2

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0

Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 ___4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5

___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 ___ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0

Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 ___ 4-1 ______ 3.0 - 0.5

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0___ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0

wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 ___ 4-2 ______ 3.0 - 1.0

Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_  0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0

wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 __ 2-1 ______ 1.5 - 1.0

rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1

===========================================