Severe Weather Threat 6/26

[eyewall]

A consensus of
   model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
   central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
   MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
   addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
   Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
   lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
   with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
   supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
   early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
   of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
   supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
   current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
   will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
   eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
   areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
   the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.

[Brick Tamland]

Level 3 threat. Doesn't sound good. Hope we have some junk earlier in the day to stabilize things.

[Ander]

First time level 3 in a while.

[eyewall]

I plan on headed out toward the Triad and points west to see if I can catch some discretes before upscale growth occurs.

[olafminesaw]

59 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I plan on headed out toward the Triad and points west to see if I can catch some discretes before upscale growth occurs.

SPC is definitely highlighting the hail threat, citing the potential for isolated very large hail. The last hatched hail event from SPC was May 23, 2014. 

[wncsnow]

I think this mornings MCS will really limit things west of 77. Not that it's the prime spot anyways. 

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think this mornings MCS will really limit things west of 77. Not that it's the prime spot anyways. 

Actually I think the opposite, cloud cover will linger East of 77, through around lunchtime for the triad (per the HRRR) that may limit CAPE somewhat, but areas west of 77 are about to get full sun. 

[wncsnow]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Actually I think the opposite, cloud cover will linger East of 77, through around lunchtime for the triad (per the HRRR) that may limit CAPE somewhat, but areas west of 77 are about to get full sun. 

They are but will it give the atmosphere time to juice back up? It can cap things.

[olafminesaw]

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

They are but will it give the atmosphere time to juice back up? It can cap things.

 Most heating will occur after 10 am anyway, with solar noon around 1:15. Lack of shear seems to be the biggest inhibitor out that way. 

[kvegas-wx]

Man I dont want to see large hail.  Some of the videos from AR, MS, TX, CO have me spooked!  And I hate to see my hard work on the crops this year go to waste.

Sun is already bright here in the Triad.

[NorthHillsWx]

Still overcast here in my part of the triangle 

[olafminesaw]

26 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Man I dont want to see large hail.  Some of the videos from AR, MS, TX, CO have me spooked!  And I hate to see my hard work on the crops this year go to waste.

Sun is already bright here in the Triad.

FWIW, I think the latest SPC discussion is a lot less enthusiastic about a higher end threat. Seems like CAPE values are lagging a bit and CAMS have less impressive parameters. Might be the sweet spot where we get some fun storms without having to worry too much about damage.

[wncsnow]

Models are less impressive too. I do think all the MCS rolling across the past few days have helped stabilize things a bit. 

[eyewall]

I am high point and it is full sun here. Cleared just west of Mebane.

[NorthHillsWx]

Full sun in Raleigh now and temp shot up to 88.3. Feels like a severe day now 

[eyewall]

I am waiting to see if any discretes pop off the lee trough before working back toward the Triangle

 

[olafminesaw]

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am waiting to see if any discretes pop off the lee trough before working back toward the Triangle

 

Going to be a couple more hours until storms initiate per the HRRR. Still a weak cap per the meso analysis, although eroded significantly since this morning.

[kvegas-wx]

First storm of the afternoon up at the farm in Stuart.  Looks like a line may develop cells from Lynchburg back to Wilkesboro soon.

[wncsnow]

Big storms near the blue Ridge firing quickly

[olafminesaw]

I think that cell moving over North Wilkesboro is going to be the one to watch for the Triad. Hard to say if there will be more spread between cells as the HRRR depicts or if it will eventually form a fragmented line like the hires NAM.

[NorthHillsWx]

Maybe it gets going after dark but it seems like a bit of a bust so far with just two cells that seem kinda capped

[Blue Ridge]

Sandhills and portions of the Triad broke the bust. Let’s see if the blob entering Chatham can hold it together and give greater Raleigh a show.


.

[cbmclean]

Serious training going on in Harnett County right now.  Be interesting to see what rain measurements they have down there.

[NorthHillsWx]

Completely missed my neck of the woods. 0.0” of rain. Sandhills seemed to get some good storms last night

[eyewall]

I chased two different supercells yesterday in western Piedmont/Triad region. When I got back last night, I caught this over Raleigh:

 

[eyewall]

A few shots from 2 different supercells:
 

[ObiWanKarlNobi]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Completely missed my neck of the woods. 0.0” of rain. Sandhills seemed to get some good storms last night

Same here. well I got a little bit of rain, but the big storms moved through north and south of me.