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June 25th 2023 Severe Weather


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2023  

  

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN  
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...379...381...  
  

VALID 252147Z - 252345Z  
 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 374, 379, 381 CONTINUES.  

  

SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  

WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 374,  

379, AND 381.  

  

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE AT 2140Z SHOWS SEVERAL  

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST KY NORTHEAST INTO  

SOUTHERN INDIANA, WITH A HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL.  OVER THE NEXT  

2 TO 4 HOURS, THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE  

CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN IN  

ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE  

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WITH AMPLE  

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.   

RAP-BASED STP VALUES OF 6 TO LOCALLY 8 ARE FORECAST IN THE 23Z-02Z  

TIME FRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA, SUPPORTING AN  

INCREASED TORNADO RISK FOR SUPERCELLS REMAINING DISCRETE WHILE  

MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A STRONG  

TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

  

..BUNTING.. 06/25/2023 

 

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2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

It’s arriving imby I’ll try to get some good pictures hopefully nice shelf structure 

Your golden!!  :thumbsup:  That cell developed and to my west and went right to Fenton!!  Completely predictable. :lol:  Brighton the next target!!

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5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Solid hit here but you can tell the environment just didn’t align today. It looked like we had a small moment of 60 mph winds but other than that nothing too bad

Well, guys, at long last, it actually rained like a real thunderstorm. I got a shelf cloud, (will post pictures if you guys want.) visible changing motions in the cloud, lightning and thunder. I saw a bit of lightning, and tried to video it, but that might not have worked. I just got a rain rate of 1" per hour with 30mph gusts and constant rumbles. Some utility poles down in Toledo, as what might be considered low-end wind damage. I saw a couple of pea sized hailstones on the porch, but hailstones were not easy to see anywhere else.

53mph at Toledo

61mph at Detroit Metro

just now, some more thunder, must be nearby lightning and the rain picked up

Quote

KTOL 252152Z 27026G45KT 1SM R25/P6000FT +TSRA FEW043 SCT050 BKN060 21/17 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 28046/2142 WSHFT 2138 VIS 1/2V5 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB45 TSB44 PRESRR SLP049 P0002 T02060167 $

 

its happening1.jpg

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Well, guys, at long last, it actually rained like a real thunderstorm. I got a shelf cloud, (will post pictures if you guys want.) visible changing motions in the cloud, lightning and thunder. I saw a bit of lightning, and tried to video it, but that might not have worked. I just got a rain rate of 1" per hour with 30mph gusts and constant rumbles. Some utility poles down in Toledo, as what might be considered low-end wind damage. I saw a couple of pea sized hailstones on the porch, but hailstones were not easy to see anywhere else.

53mph at Toledo

61mph at Detroit Metro

just now, some more thunder, must be nearby lightning and the rain picked up

 

its happening1.jpg

Yeah, definitely a solid event for that area (beggara can't be choosers).

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30 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

It appears that this storm may have produced a significant tornado that was never confirmed in the warning. A friend on FB just posted that their Aunt and Uncle's house was hit in Shoals. Unfortunately the uncle passed and aunt was life flighted foe medical attention. 

KVWX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 3_37 PM.png

Is there any more information from this one? That tornado appeared to be strong-violent based on the intensity of the mesocyclone and the height of the TDS.

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Is there any more information from this one? That tornado appeared to be strong-violent based on the intensity of the mesocyclone and the height of the TDS.

Unfortunately I don't have any at this time. I reached out but haven't heard back. Did the warning ever say confirmed damaging tornado? The radar and velocity presentation was exceptional and supportive of a strong to violent tornado like you suggested. I haven't seen any pics or video of a tornado or damage from this storm yet. I will let you know if I hear anything. 

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