Windspeed Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Likely to be classified if trends continue even if its existence down the road is impeded by Bret. Then again, Bret may end up shredded in the Caribbean, so it is worth watching how it evolves and where it goes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with the area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. If this trend continues, a tropical depression could form as early as later this morning while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to increase with a turn toward the northwest during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast lies near the model consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 The operational GFS and now the Euro bring Cindy back from the dead as it curves northward and interacts with an approaching trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0 subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB. Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so. Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment, should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time. For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that future forecast changes may be necessary. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 22.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.7N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 25.6N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Bye Cindy Remnants Of Cindy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows that the low-cloud swirl associated with Cindy has again become void of deep convection. In addition, imagery animation and scatterometer data indicates that the system no longer has a closed circulation. Thus, the cyclone has degenerated to a tropical wave or trough and this will be the last advisory. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is anticipated that the maximum winds will drop below tropical-storm force during the next several hours. The initial motion is 315/12. The remnants of Cindy should continue a general northwestward motion for the next couple of days, and then turn northward on the eastern side of a deep-layer baroclinic trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. In the short term, there is little chance of any regeneration due to continued southwesterly vertical shear. However, after 48 h or so, the shear should diminish, and there is a chance that Cindy could regenerate after that time near or north of Bermuda. However, the model support for this has decreased over the last 24 h, and currently there is not enough confidence in regeneration to explicitly show it in the forecast. This is the last advisory on Cindy by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 In the grave now but we’ll see if it comes back from the dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 LLC has dissipated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: LLC has dissipated. Not looking good for regeneration chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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