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Tropical Storm Cindy


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bret, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
in association with the area of low pressure located about midway 
between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  If this 
trend continues, a tropical depression could form as early as later 
this morning while the system moves westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to increase with a turn toward the northwest 
during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the depression is 
expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 
few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm 
in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds 
indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring 
in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and 
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a 
tropical depression.  The depression has a partially exposed 
low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. 
The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of 
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on 
the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days.  After 
that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards 
a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands.  The model 
guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast 
lies near the model consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening 
over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a 
tropical storm in the next day or so.  Beyond 72 h, global models 
agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and 
weaken the cyclone.  The NHC intensity prediction starts out 
conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most 
similar to the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.0N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.1N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.0N  52.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.6N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 20.9N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 23.3N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection 
associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast 
with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the 
center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed 
over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no 
recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the 
structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is 
supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0 
subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so. 
Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by 
Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central 
Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment, 
should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm 
SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching 
its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening 
thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open 
into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS 
runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond 
the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the 
most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time. 
For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the 
non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that 
future forecast changes may be necessary.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A 
general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over 
the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its 
northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with 
the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the 
far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is 
slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the 
left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC 
intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 13.9N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.2N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.1N  54.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.1N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 20.9N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 22.5N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 23.7N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 25.6N  64.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Bye Cindy

Remnants Of Cindy Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

Satellite imagery this evening shows that the low-cloud swirl 
associated with Cindy has again become void of deep convection.  In 
addition, imagery animation and scatterometer data indicates that 
the system no longer has a closed circulation.  Thus, the cyclone 
has degenerated to a tropical wave or trough and this will be the 
last advisory.  The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the 
scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB, and it is anticipated that the maximum winds will drop below 
tropical-storm force during the next several hours.

The initial motion is 315/12.  The remnants of Cindy should 
continue a general northwestward motion for the next couple of 
days, and then turn northward on the eastern side of a deep-layer 
baroclinic trough over the eastern United States and the western 
Atlantic.

In the short term, there is little chance of any regeneration due 
to continued southwesterly vertical shear.  However, after 48 h or 
so, the shear should diminish, and there is a chance that Cindy 
could regenerate after that time near or north of Bermuda.  
However, the model support for this has decreased over the last 24 
h, and currently there is not enough confidence in regeneration to 
explicitly show it in the forecast.

This is the last advisory on Cindy by the National Hurricane 
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 22.8N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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