Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks good, no heat, active nw flow

I admit I'm surprised at how things worked out.  The way it was going in June I figured we'd be a lock for a few 100+ readings this month or August.  

[A-L-E-K]

Yup things just lock in these days 

[hawkeye_wx]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks good, no heat, active nw flow

It looks dry here.  The latest GFS/Euro show <0.50" over the next ten days.

[Lightning]

21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I admit I'm surprised at how things worked out.  The way it was going in June I figured we'd be a lock for a few 100+ readings this month or August.  

Same.  I was very surprised.  I was expecting the ring of fire to set up much further north.   This is what makes the weather so much fun.  Mother Nature don't care what the models say!! 

[cyclone77]

Looking pretty quiet again for the next 10 days or so.  

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Dry, dry, dry for the rest of the month.

[Chambana]

40 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Dry, dry, dry for the rest of the month.

Yeah seems the rain chances are going to be few and far between for the northern portion of the sub. August is going to be an interesting month with a strengthening strong El Niño. How the hell are we 6ish weeks away from met fall? 

Anyway, I’m taking advantage of the warm summer and drier days ahead, me and the pops are hitting the lake this week for crappie fishing. Time to stock the deep freeze. 

[cyclone77]

zzzzz

[frostfern]

Getting the old skip over again.

[A-L-E-K]

next week threatening heat but suspect storms will play a role

[Lightning]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

next week threatening heat but suspect storms will play a role

I believe/hope the ring of fire will be active to help keep the heat in check some.

[Spartman]

23 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

next week threatening heat but suspect storms will play a role

Pretty impressive on the 12z Euro, but the 12z GFS lost the heat.

[Chicago Storm]

next week threatening heat but suspect storms will play a role

seasonal trends will probably win out.


.

[A-L-E-K]

Yup another heat bust

[Spartman]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yup another heat bust

Now to wait if Euro eventually caves to GFS. Even AFDs like IND or ILX seem to have doubts about late next week.
IND:

While heights will increase through the week, NBM output appears to
be too warm late in the period, and have made some downward
adjustments there. Will still be hot and sticky, particularly given
the relative lack of 90 degree weather thus far this season, but at
this point there`s very little about the synoptic pattern that
screams major heat.

ILX:

Beyond Sunday, there`s actually quite a bit of uncertainty in how
the pattern will evolve. There`s definitely an overall warming trend
evident in the low resolution ensemble forecast (LREF) system, which
is the combined ensembles of the GFS (called the GEFS: 30 models
called "members"), ECMWF (called the EPS: 50 members), and CMC
(CMCE: 20 members). In fact, NBM`s deterministic forecast, which is
essentially the mean of the biased corrected LREF, brings high
temperatures up from 89 degF Monday to 94 degF by Thursday in
Lincoln. However, the 10th to 90th percentile range (the observed
high temperature should fall into this range 80% of the time if its
properly calibrated) spans 10+ degF Monday and nearly 15 degF by
Wednesday, suggesting significant spread in the ensemble. As has
been the case the past several days, the GEFS continues to be the
outlier of the three ensemble systems comprising the LREF (and
ultimately feeding NBM), with most of its members yielding maxTs >
95 and upwards of 20% of its members depicting 105+ degF highs at
KAAA by next weekend. These outliers (some of which are > 110!)
are skewing the data and pulling the ensemble mean (and hence NBM)
up above what would seem reasonable given the moisture flux which
could be expected from agricultural evapotranspiration this time
of year (even given our still semi-dry soils). So...temperatures
were nudged 30% to the 25th percentile to bring them back in line
with what the rest of the LREF is suggesting for Thursday and
Friday. Even so, our highs could be far too warm should we get
convection - which the deterministic models are suggesting could
crest the ridge at any time during the upcoming work week.
Convective action could not only bring a very temporary relief to
the heat, but it would also yield outflow boundaries which could
push the periphery of the ridge back towards the south -- possibly
preventing it from building in nearly as much as what the models
have been suggesting. We`ll continue to monitor and update the
forecast (and discussion) with our latest thinking.

IWX:

While it become notably warmer mid and late this week (especially
compared to today`s temperatures) there is concensus among the
team here today that the combination of falling heights aloft,
clouds and storms around, and even a hint of cold air advection
aloft as a trough moves through, high temperatures Thursday and
Friday might be overdone. Highs in the upper-80s are certainly
likely, but it may be challenging to break too far into the 90s.
ECMWF offers a 90th percentile forecast high temperature Friday
while the in-house NBM is near 75th percentile; perhaps too warm.

 

[cyclone77]

Looks like mid-upper 90s Wed/Thu for this area.  We've already had that earlier this summer so nothing too exciting there.  Doesn't look like the heat will stick around very long.

[Spartman]

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like mid-upper 90s Wed/Thu for this area.  We've already had that earlier this summer so nothing too exciting there.  Doesn't look like the heat will stick around very long.

Although today's 12z GFS has some improvement, the GFS runs apparently got JB going :

 

[Powerball]

5 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Although today's 12z GFS has some improvement, the GFS runs apparently got JB going :

 

Besides the fact that the more recent GFS runs are back to showing a hotter look across the country, He apparently doesn't understand how probabilities work, nor the meaning of "above average"...

[IWXwx]

19 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Besides the fact that the more recent GFS runs are back to showing a hotter look across the country, He apparently doesn't understand how probabilities work, nor the meaning of "above average"...

He completely understands how probabilities work. He is just playing to his sheep. It is unfortunate that this misdirection is so rampant in the public realm today. Leaders used to work for the betterment of the whole, but no longer.

[Spartman]

Jaxjagman in the Tennessee Valley subforum seems to be viewing it as the final nail in the coffin for the summer. 

[A-L-E-K]

prayers 4 powerball, also amazing lack of heat here

 

[Spartman]

6-10 day:

8-14 day:

[A-L-E-K]

Same old

[cyclone77]

Today's near 70 degree dews feel like fresh canadian air compared to yesterday's oppressive lower 80s.  

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Today's near 70 degree dews feel like fresh canadian air compared to yesterday's oppressive lower 80s.  

Agreed feels like a drastic difference compared to last few days

[A-L-E-K]

Best climo and what a weird summer

 

[Cary67]

24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Best climo and what a weird summer

 

When did you move to San Diego?

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest GEFS and EPS mean qpf for the next two weeks are the best they've been all summer for Iowa.

[A-L-E-K]

still no real heat on the horizon, what a summer

[Spartman]

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

still no real heat on the horizon, what a summer

There are many summers with a lack of 90-degree days that are followed by cold/snowy winters.